Shades of Wrigley

Out Of The Friaring Pan

2008-03-03T21:01:00.003-06:00

Year	Name	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA
????	Player A	675	600	101	168	52	3	26	81	58	104	3	.280	.356	.507	.285
????	Player B	675	613	116	180	42	15	20	78	47	83	35	.293	.352	.507	.288
????	Player C	675	615	103	175	55	1	28	99	43	102	5	.285	.336	.514	.282
????	Player D	675	619	111	171	41	13	18	73	46	85	34	.276	.333	.475	.275
????	Player E	675	617	98	173	55	2	28	95	41	113	6	.280	.334	.511	.280
????	Player F	675	620	106	172	38	10	15	64	46	80	35	.277	.330	.447	.268

Alright, of those players which would you take? They all play the same position and defensively let's assume that they are all similar for the sake of simplicity. One of those players actually managed to win an MVP award. Go figure. The PA's obviously are not identical, but the stats were based off a 675 PA season - assuming that each player would be given the same amount of opportunities if they were on the same team. Alright, pencils down. It was a trick question. It shouldn't have been too hard to figure out that there are only two different players listed, ranging from various levels of success on their own age curve. Players A, C and E are none other than Khalil Greene. Players B, D and F are 2007 MVP Jimmy Rollins.

Player A's stats are the 2006 road stats for Khalil Greene extrapolated out to 675 PAs. Player B's stats are the 2007 road stats scaled to 675 PA's for Jimmy Rollins. They're nearly identical, but of course Khalil Greene gets no love because of his admittedly dreadful home stats for his career. Player C represents the 2006 and 2007 road stats for Khalil Greene and Player D represents the same for Jimmy Rollins. All I can say is it looks like Khalil Greene is the good version of Jhonny Peralta with better defense. Player E would be the last four years on the road for Greene and Player F for Jimmy Rollins, since Citizen's Bank Park and PETCO Park both opened in 2004. As one can easily tell Khalil Greene has been remarkebly consistent in his high level of production on the road, and remarkably consistent in his low level of production at home.

The last four years Greene's EqA at home has been .258, .248, .225, and .233 with the latter figures being the more recent totals. It's pretty obvious that Khalil Greene has been a replacement level hitter the last couple of years in PETCO. However, on the road those figures are .293, .263, .285 and .279. Those are solid numbers for a shortstop of his defensive caliber and would make him comparable to Miguel Tejada. Yet Greene's EqA overall sits around .260 thanks to him playing half of his games in PETCO.

The simple fact of the matter is that he's about as bad of a fit for PETCO as there is in baseball. In 2007 Khalil Greene hit a flyball 47.2% of the time, placing him 11th in baseball and in the 92nd percentile for the statistic. In 2006 his 46.2% flyball percentage was in the 90th percentile. He was in the 90th percentile in 2005 as well, and was in the 89th percentile in 2004. On the flip side each of those four years he's been in the bottom twelve persent for ground ball rate. Given PETCO's conditions that aren't suitable for home run hitters, it's a logical conclusion that a guy like Khalil Greene ought to struggle there. Large struggles seem to be expected given that he's not just a slight flyball hitter, he's an extreme flyball hitter.

When you run through the data you find that for Padres hitters the correlation between flyball rate and EqA reduction in PETCO is only around .3, but at the same time you also find a bad sample. Over the last four seasons most of the at bats have gone to guys that are above average flyball hitters, similar to Greene. About three-fourth's of them are, so the sample really doesn't do justice in this study. We really can't conclude eiher way, although it appears that there clearly is a link between the two.

Either way it appears that PETCO is costing Khalil Greene millions of dollars. If he hit the open market today and hit the numbers that are posted above, it's quite likely given his defensive reputation that he would garnish a contract near $100M. However, given the stuggles of him in PETCO, it's likely that he'll be lucky to get half that. It's unfortunate for Greene. The Padres would be smart to realize that he has more value to other teams and that they can proably trade him and come out better. The fact is they're the Padres so he has to play half of his games there. It's an unfortunate situation for both parties. This year we're going to track Greene's road EqA on the left, by his face. I hope you enjoy! We love Khalil around here, dammit.

Roster Crunch

2008-03-02T18:28:00.004-06:00

By my math there are spots locked up on the roster:

1. SP Carlos Zambrano
2. SP Rich Hill
3. SP Ted Lilly
4. RP Bob Howry
5. RP Scott Eyre
6. RP Carlos Marmol
7. RP Kerry Wood
8. RP Michael Wuertz
9. P Ryan Dempster
10. P Jason Marquis
11. P
12. UT
13. C Henry Blanco
14. C Geovany Soto
15. 1B Derrek Lee
16. 2B Mark DeRosa
17. SS Ryan Theriot
18. 3B Aramis Ramirez
19. PH Daryle Ward
20. LF Alfonso Soriano
21. CF
22. RF Kosuke Fukudome
23. OF Matt Murton
24. UT
26. UT

So there are basically two bench spots open, the starting center field position, one pitchers slot (could be SP or RP) and one spot that could be any position. The candidates are:

Felix Pie - CF

He's off to a great start this spring and had a very good season last year. The general consensus is that I strongly dislike Pie. That's not true, I just think his perceived trade value is greater than his actual value. He's clearly the best decision for the Cubs if they ignore Fukudome in center as a possibility. He'll win the job outright, I think.

Sam Fuld - CF

Sam Fuld is not very good option in my opinion. I'd like to believe that his minor league walk rates would translate to the majors, but it's not a very likely scenario. Sam Fuld compares favorably to Joey Gathright minus a lot of speed. Fuld's a tremendous defensive player and can be a useful spot starter at any spot in the outfield in a pinch because he won't kill you with his OBP. He's the centerfield version of Ryan Theriot. Joey Gathright has a career .400 OBP in the minors, but one of a paltry .333 in the Majors. He's walked a decent amount of time, but ML pitchers learned that he has two professional home runs and aren't afraid of him. Sam Fuld's very similar in that respect. His walk rate could and will probably evaporate. I think he's a great option for the fifth outfield spot. He'll break camp with the team.

Ronny Cedeno - SS

Ronny Cedeno will appear to be battling Alex Cintron and Mike Fontenot for what appears to be two open slots on the bench. He's got a leg up on Fontenot in that he can play shortstop and he's got a leg up on Cintron because he's on the 40 man roster. Ronny's the only pure shortstop even remotely close to making this team. It's unfortunate he's not going to get a chance to reclaim the shortstop position.

Alex Cintron - IF

Alex Cintron has bench experience, which is something managers value for some reason. He's a brick defensively though, so he's not all that great for a utility spot. He's a career .277/.315/.401 hitter which is serviceable for a back up middle infielder (it's not all that worse than Theriot). I think he'll make this team. I really do.

Mike Fontenot - IF

I think Fontenot is going to be the odd man out again. It's a shame he's never gotten a chance with this organization. He's been a .280/.370/.450 2B for a couple years now toiling around in the minor leagues. It's too bad the front office hasn't opened their eyes until recently. He's getting old already.

Pitchers later!

A Sign of Things to Come

2008-03-02T18:19:00.004-06:00

Following today's 8-6 loss the Cubs moved to 1-3 in the Cactus League. Oh well, it's only March second.

Today the Cubs faced Matt Cain. The Cubs lineup included Ryan Theriot, Kosuke Fukudome, Matt Murton, Ryan Theriot, Derrek Lee and Geovany Soto. They combined to go 4 for 15 with 3 walks. Felix Pie hit his second home run of the spring - more importantly Pie took his second walk. Neal Cotts got thrashed but he's Neal Cotts. Lilly allowed a run in a couple innings of work. Marmol closed out the game. I've got to think he's got the leg up on the closer role since he's coming in the game in the 9th in Spring Training. I don't really understand why considering by then the only players in the game will be in AA during the season.

Equivalent Average Unmasked

2008-02-16T21:17:00.001-06:00

Runs Batted In was created in the late 1800s. A few teams created the statistic to show how good they were. In fact, some sportswriters of the day realized it's inherent bias towards hitters in the middle of the order and disregarded it. The little guys with pointy hats and horse-drawn carriages knew what they were talking about. RBI would not surface as widely accepted statistic until after the dead ball era was over. Eventually it became THE way to grade an offensive players "production." We all know why it's a bad statistic.

Batting average has its flaws as well. If you go out on the street and ask someone what batting average is, they will respond with something sounding like this: How often a player gets a hit. Wrong. Batting average does not tell us how often a player gets a hit. It tells how often a player gets hit when while deciding to throw out some times he goes up to the plate for no reason other than we feel like it. It also fails to tell us to what type of a hit the player got. A single is not worth the same as a double. This is why we use on base average and slugging average. Then again is slugging average really any better? Well yes and no. It tells you the type of hit, but it still has the first problem of batting average. We're partitioning the times the player comes up to bat and excluding one for inherently biased reasons. Is on base average any better? It fixes the first problem, but fails to solve the second problem of batting average. It acknowledges all plate appearances, but it makes a walk and a home run equal.

We can sum on base average and slugging average for OPS, but then again who says that the relationship for that is better. Instead we can try to develop a system that solves both problems. Enter equivalent average. This post is going to describe anything and everything about EqA so you can come up with the exact EqA's BaseballProspectus comes up with. One of the criticisms for EqA is that BP develops it in a black box. No one knows how they arrive at it. They do spell out the method here. You can do all the things they do. You'll find out that the league leaders in EqA are generally around .300. BP's EqA leaders are generally around .350 or so. You can play around with the stuff in that article for days and never come up with anything remotely close to their EqA. Sorry. As TangoTiger put it: Opening up the black box will not cause a single dent on [BaseballProspect's] bottom line.

What I am going to tell you is everything and why Baseball Prospectus is doing what they do. It's rather simple. In fact it's essentially what people say mathematicians criticize sabermetricians for: Units. People who dislike sabermetrics generally say real mathematicians would hate their "work" because they shed units completely. This really isn't true. Everything in EqA is measured in relatively precise units that in the end cancel out leaving an answer in runs.

Now let's go on and attack the two major problems with oba, slg, and avg. We need to create some sort of rate statistic that includes getting on base and hitting for extra bases as well as stealing a base efficiently. The first thing that is calculated answers all of these problems in what they feel is the best way. We'll call this Raw:

Raw = (SF + SH + 1.5*BB + 1.5*HBP + 1.5*SB + 2*1B + 3*2B + 4*3B + 5*HR)/(SF+SH+BB+HBP+SB+CS+AB)

What is Raw measuring? It's essentially scaled bases per opportunities of moving up a base. Intuitively the idea that walks are worth more than sacs, but not quite as much as singles is good. Raw EqA addresses our two problems effectively, only adding in SB and CS, which can be described as a third problem with each oba, slg and avg. So in the end what does raw measure? Scaled Bases per PA+CS. It gives a numeric value of production. Now we can use Raw and convert it to runs. For a team we do this with this equation:

EqR = (Raw/LgRaw )^2* PA * LgR/LgPA

So what is EqR doing? It's measuring the relative production of the team divided by what an average team does squaring and multiplying it by PA and the runs per PA an average team scores. The squared term is based on the idea that the relationship between Raw/LgRaw and runs is not linear. This makes sense because when you add good hitters your other good hitters get more guys on base and each of their hits cause more runs. Now since we're looking at EqR on a team level and we want it on the player level let's look at that.

First, an assumption: The player in question is being analyzed by an average team in his home park. This assumption is needed to derive the equation most people see for EqR. Now, to look at the change in EqR for some change in Raw, take the derivative of EqR with respect to Raw. We get this equation:

dEqR = 2*Raw/LgRaw*PA*LgR/LgPA

Now we're adding some guy to this team, but a team only has nine slots it can play. So what are we doing? We're replacing an average player on this team and adding this players production. So basically we have our runs minus an average player's runs in the same PA. We're NOT measuring runs over an average player. We're measuring all of the runs created by a player. So our equation becomes:

dEqR = 2*Raw/LgRaw*PA*LgR/LgPA - PA*LgR/LgPA

Now we can factor out PA*LgR/LgPA resulting in the equation for EqR for a player you'll see at BP, only they drop the dEqR and call it EqR.

EqR = (2*Raw/LgRaw - 1) * PA* LgR/LgPA

Generally people look at that and say what the heck are they doing? Now you know why you're subtracting 1 and multiplying the ratio by two. Here is where we can multiply this by our park factor to normalize for parks, if desired. Now we want to scale EqR and to some rate statistic. What should we use? Outs of course. Why? Outs are the stopclock in baseball. We have 9 sets of 3 outs. We can bat as long as we want as long as we don't make those outs. So we decide to make our rate be something close to runs per out used. So then we get this equation, that you can find at BP, albeit not in the article I linked to regarding how to compute EqA (lol).

EqA = (EqR/Out/5)^.4

First let's analyze the "units". We have runs divided by outs, which is want we wanted. Pay no attention to the .4 right now. The thing that should cross your mind is what crosses everyone's mind: Why the hell do they divide by five? WHY? This is where everyone gets lost. In fact if you follow the calculations done in this thread and divide by five you will won't get the EqA BP computes. This is the black box, so to speak. Remember, average EqA is supposed to be .260. If you plug all this in you'll get the league average to be about .266 or so, depending on the season. IT DOESN'T WORK. 5 is more or less a constant that forces the average to be equal to .260. How do we do that?

Well League average is going to be (LgR/LgOut/C)^.4. Since we want to "force" EqA to be equal to .260 for an average player, simply set that equation equal to .260 and solve for C. So C =(LgR/LgOut)/.260^2.5. This number tends to be around 5, ranging anywhere from 4.6 (Japan Central League) to about 5.6 (2007 AL). The 2007 National League was about 5.2.

And there, with the above information you can get the exact answers that BP gets for EqA and puts on their player cards. In fact, If you want to you can find out the park factors to extra digits. I've gotten to the point where the average "error" on the EqA I come up with is .000226 compared to their's. Remember that their EqA is the ring of integers divided by 1000. In other words: It's rounded after three digits. Theoretically, the average error in rounding then will be .00025, which is actually greater than the error I come up with.

So there you have it. EqA perfectly. Now go look up EqR on BP and you'll see this:

EqR = 5*Out*EqA^2.5

Oh and 1/2.5=.4, so solving that equation for EqA gives us the EqA=(EqR/Out/5)^.4. Look familiar? Oh, but now we're all smart enough to realize that the five isn't five.

And yes, in case you noticed LgRuns gets canceled out. If you plug in everything you get:

EqA = ((2*Raw/LgRaw - 1) * PA* LgR/LgPA) * Out * LgOut/LgR*.26^2.5)^.4
EqA = ((2*Raw/LgRaw - 1) * PA * Out * LgOut/LgPA * .26^2.5)^.4

When you ever want to scale EqA to some league average production based on runs, it's going to cancel out....which of course makes sense.

Building A Projection System

2008-02-10T17:14:00.000-06:00

Rk	Name	Pos	Act	Pec	My	E P	E My
1.	Rodriguez	3b	.340	.319	.310	.021	.030
2.	Ramirez	ss	.315	.277	.302	.038	.013
3.	Renteria	ss	.297	.262	.259	.035	.038
4.	Rollins	ss	.290	.274	.272	.016	.018
5.	Jeter	ss	.285	.305	.277	.020	.008
6.	Guillen	ss	.283	.306	.291	.023	.008
7.	Reyes	ss	.278	.276	.266	.002	.012
8.	Tejada	ss	.271	.296	.289	.025	.018
9.	Young	ss	.270	.286	.275	.016	.005
10.	Wilson	ss	.269	.247	.246	.022	.023
11.	Eckstein	ss	.266	.247	.257	.019	.009
12.	Greene	ss	.263	.272	.266	.009	.003
13.	Hardy	ss	.261	.254	.241	.007	.020
14.	Sea Bass	ss	.260	.247	.233	.013	.027
15.	Cabrera	ss	.260	.260	.253	.000	.007
16.	Peralta	ss	.259	.281	.265	.022	.006
17.	Loretta	ss	.254	.252	.250	.002	.004
18.	Bartlett	ss	.253	.269	.252	.016	.001
19.	Betancourt	ss	.248	.251	.244	.003	.004
20.	Scutaro	ss	.246	.253	.246	.007	.000
21.	Furcal	ss	.244	.268	.278	.024	.034
22.	Lopez	ss	.239	.272	.268	.033	.029
23.	Drew	ss	.236	.276	.289	.040	.053
24.	Durham	2b	.227	.295	.269	.068	.042
25.	Lugo	ss	.225	.269	.261	.044	.036
26.	Uribe	ss	.222	.263	.228	.041	.006
27.	Vizquel	ss	.221	.264	.242	.043	.021
28.	Crosby	ss	.219	.265	.247	.046	.028
29.	McDonald	ss	.211	.215	.215	.004	.004
30.	Izturis	ss	.210	.234	.221	.024	.011
	Average	ss	.257	.269	.260	.023	.017

As I sit here working on a simple projection system to evaluate translations from Japan to the United States, I beta ran one of the simple methods I came up with. The method is based on Marcel and I was only trying to project Equivalent Average. I looked at most middle infielders from the 1990s and developed a simplistic general age curve for all of them. Fitted that using a similar weighted season process that Marcel uses. I then looked at the set of 2007 SSs with a large amount of PAs and compared the projections versus the actual results for PECOTA and the simplistic method I came up with. Surprisingly the method I devised was more accurate. Weird. In case you're interested, the results are to the right.

Shortstop Rankings

2008-02-09T02:17:00.000-06:00

Rk.	Name	Pos	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
1.	Hanley Ramirez	ss	112	22	78	41	.309
2.	Jose Reyes	ss	111	14	66	63	.288
3.	Jimmy Rollins	ss	110	21	76	31	.286
4.	Troy Tulowitzki	ss	99	22	92	9	.286
5.	Derek Jeter	ss	102	12	75	15	.306
6.	Carlos Guillen	ss	86	17	83	12	.295
7.	Rafael Furcal	ss	99	10	56	28	.281
8.	Miguel Tejada	ss	77	19	88	4	.298
9.	Michael Young	ss	81	12	80	9	.299
10.	Jhonny Peralta	ss	92	21	84	4	.272
11.	Yunel Escobar	ss	85	8	70	12	.297
12.	JJ Hardy	ss	85	23	84	3	.270
13.	Orlando Cabrera	ss	88	9	70	18	.273
14.	Stephen Drew	ss	77	18	78	8	.264
15.	Edgar Renteria	ss	82	10	61	10	.287
16.	Khalil Greene	ss	74	22	82	5	.252
17.	Julio Lugo	ss	75	7	56	26	.269
18.	Brendan Harris	ss	77	14	74	5	.270
19.	Asdrubal Cabrera	ss	78	9	57	18	.266
20.	David Eckstein	ss	82	4	49	10	.280
	Average	ss	93	16	77	18	.287
	Replacement Level	ss	75	9	58	12	.272

Who does not love fantasy baseball? This is the first entry in a series of posts that will rank fantasy players based on their projections for the 2008 season. The projection systems that are used to come up with a players projections are PECOTA, Bill James' and ZiPS. An estimate was made based on depth charts to see how many plate appearances can be expected by each player, injury likelihood included. This cuts out projections where the PT is low because of flukish injuries, like Derrek Lee's. Shortstop happens to be the position that has the least depth this year, but it's also quite top heavy. Three shortstops are going in the first round. They're elite status, and are top 12 players.

I have several strategies I like to employ at short. The two guys I like to target are Derek Jeter and Stephen Drew. When I draft Jeter I usually do it for his batting average. Drafting his average allows you to invest in guys who are good power hitters but do not hit for a great average. The four guys that immediately come to mind are Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, Josh Fields and Chris Young. Jeter also adds some runs and some steals on the side. Drew's a bit of the opposite. He has nice power upside, although the projections are not the greatest in the world. He probably won't hit higher than .290, but he's a good gamble late.

I don't advise investing a top five pick on Jose Reyes. I have him rated #10 overall and I just don't see the point of investing in a two category player in the first round. You're limiting yourself way too much.

Reboot #2

2008-02-09T00:54:00.000-06:00

Let's see, last time I decided to promise my zero readers that I was going to reboot this blog and make more posts, it last all of one post after that one. Maybe this time it will last longer. I would not bet on it, but it is worth a try. We'll see...

One Week

2007-03-25T23:42:00.000-05:00

That's all it is until the beginning of the season. For all of my zero readers, I promise to update this with more regularity than I did in the offseason. You have the word of a liar. Enjoy. But for now, I've got the iPod going, so I can rant a little bit. Today, let's look at the pleasure of our pitching riches and how that shakes down at the five spot.

As of this writing there are still technically three pitchers who have yet to be eliminated for the five slot. That does not mean that each actually has a realistic chance, but oh well. With Angel Guzman, Wade Miller, and Mark Prior all fighting for the spot, I feel so honored. Not really, but whatever.

Wade Miller is the odds on favorite for the spot. He's no longer the gunner he was with Houston, and now gets by on more finesse and "pitchability." Ironically enough he's displayed a surprinsingly high strikeout rate without breaking ninety on the gun. Wade's overall line this spring has been quite impressive, a 3.63 ERA in the Cactus League and a 16:4 K:BB. He has been knocked around for three home runs already, and that could be an issue if he tries to catch a hitter off guard with a supersonic 87 MPH fastball as he adjusts to not hitting 97 with it.

Angel Guzman had the luxury of coming into camp in shape after winter leagues, but had a pretty disappointing spring, in my opinion. He had the five spot by the balls once Prior started sucking. His stuff has looked dominant, but his inability to finish hitters may have cost him a spot in the rotation. His pure stuff has Uncle Lou raving, and rightfully so. I'd also venture to say his inability to finish hitters has also made the Cubs worse this season, by him not starting in the rotation. The biggest thing to jump out of his statline is of course the lack of strikeouts. It's a double-edged sword of course. Hes walked just one on the spring, but is it a byproduct of him not getting swings and misses? Still at this point, his stuff should have gotten him a bigger chance.

Mark Prior says he is ready to go. The good news is that he's improved his velocity (and performance) which each successive outing. The bad news is that he's only cracked 90 a handful of times this spring. In my opinion, there are two courses of action. They both involve him not opening the season with the Cubs. It may make him mad, but he needs to understand why. While he's made progress, he's at least two or three starts away. He needs to be hitting 90+ consistently with command before he's back. The first scenario is opening with him on the fifteen day designated list, which means that he has all of April to "rehab" if need be. He has options left so we could go that route if it looks like he needs more than just April.

Spring Fever

2007-03-03T22:49:00.000-06:00

I know, I really suck at this blogging thing. However now there is at least going to be a constant flow of things to keep my mind on. With the flurry of moves the Cubs still continue to suck. Jason Marquis took the hill the first game of the spring and promptly gave up a run. Awesome. I am not expecting much if anything from the Marquis. God, he sucks. The second game was highlighted by a couple pretty good offensive performances. A two hit game by Mr Izturis - who sucks and a four RBI game by Matt Murton.

Todays game was a lot better. Instead of being handed their third loss of the young spring they tied the Athletics. Ronny Cedeno had a nice game with a home run off of Dan Haren and a bunt single later on. Wade Miller labored through his couple innings of work. Ryan Dempster had a nice begin to his spring. Jeff Samardzija also had a perfect inning touching 98. The wheels fell off with Carlos Marmol. Who, in a word, sucked.

Oh well tomorrow looks to be a dandy. We've got Rich Hill versus Jon Garland on WGN. Scott Eyre and a few others are supposed to pitch as well. Former Cubs Andrew Sisco and David Aardsma are slated to go for the White Sox.

Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects: #5

2007-01-07T20:33:00.000-06:00

#5 Tyler Colvin, OF

Year	Team	Lv	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	HR	SO	BB	SB	CS
2004	Clemson	NCAA	.289	.350	.414	128	2	16	11	4	1
2005	Clemson	NCAA	.287	.327	.449	254	5	31	14	12	3
2006	Clemson	NCAA	.356	.419	.609	281	13	42	28	23	4
2006	Boise	SS	.268	.313	.483	265	11	55	17	12	5

Coming out of high school in 2003, Tyler Colvin was a projectable prep outfielder who was a tough sign. Baseball America had him rated in the top twenty prospects from South Carolina, but signability led him to be undrafted. By other publications however, he was regarded as the best high school player in the state. Colvin wasn't a regular his first season for the Tigers, but did get about 150 plate appearances. Considering he was a young freshman (technically most kids his age graduated in 2004) and he played his entire freshman season at age 18 in the ACC it was a solid season. He showed gap power and a decent overall eye. Most of his playing time came late in the ACC season, so it was overall a good year. In the summer he played in the Coastal Plain League and hit under 200.

Colvin added some muscle to his frame his second year at Clemson. This led to quite a bit more doubles power, but his walks took a huge drop in the added playing time. It could have been a great season for Colvin, but he finished the season in a 4 for 39 slump. He was still relatively young age wise and had tools so there was some promise. Over the following summer and fall Colvin added even more strength to his frame, and had a breakthrough junior season at age 20.

Colvin got all sorts of post season awards as he hit for power, doubles, striples stole bases and did a lot of things scouts love to see. He didn't show great patience and struckout quite a bit though. Baseball America had him as the 170th best prospect in the draft going into the week before the draft, but he was rising up draft boards and the pre-draft chatter was that the White Sox were interested in Colvin as high as the final pick of the first round. However, everyone was shocked when the Cubs took him 13th overall. Initially I was puzzled and thought my trust in Tim Wilken might be misplaced, but the guy has had just about every first-rounder make it in the past.

The Cubs signed Colvin quick enough for him to play most of the season in Boise. He didn't have the gauty numbers he showed at Clemson with the batting average but he displayed solid 220+ isolated power, which leaves room for good thoughts. His discipline was a huge problem with the Hawks however. It'll be interesting to see how this resolves with Colvin. Between Clemson and Boise Colvin got into 133 games, hitting over 30 doubles, 20 homers, ten triples and thirty stolen bases. However, he did strike out 97 times and walked just 45 times, with both of those figures doing very bad in Boise. Still, BA loved the heck out of him naming him the best prospect in the Northwest League. It looks like Wilken's belief in him has already paid off.

It's pretty nice that Colvin was still just twenty all season long in Boise. Power is one of the last things that develops for a hitter, and it seems like it might be for Colvin. He has a large 6'3" frame so it may come. The Cubs think he can stick in centerfield, but he probably won't. He's got all five tools. He has above average skills across the board, with the best being plus power. It's not surprising that a scout guy like Wilken is all over him. He has the perfect lefty swing and good tools.

However, I see a guy that the Cubs seem to have no problem signing or developing. He hasn't shown a shred of the sixth tool. His strike out rate and lack of walk rate isn't as concerning as Corey Patterson's but it could easily become an issue. The Cubs have never shown a committment to fixing these problems at the major or minor league levels. I like Colvin's chances of being a very good player if he can stick in center, but I am not so sure he'll be a good enough overall offensive player to stick on the corners. I don't know where the Cubs have him slated for 2007, but I would guess on the Florida State League skipping the Midwest. The Cubs probably won't be doing that.

Cubs Draft Dreams: David Price

2007-01-06T19:49:00.000-06:00

Year	Team	Lv	W	L	IP	H	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
2005	Vanderbilt	NCAA	2	4	69.1	51	92	30	2.86	1.17
2006	Vanderbilt	NCAA	9	5	110.1	92	155	43	4.16	1.22

One thing the terrible season in 2007 gave the Cubs was the third pick in a very good draft. It's going to be a critical selection for an organization with a depleting farm system. From all indications the top three prospects in the draft are probably going to be college products. As usual the elite players may fall because of bonus demands, so the Cubs could easily be looking between all three of them with the third pick as the Royals and Pirates aren't known for their spending in the draft. The first of these prospects would be Vanderbilt's David Price.

Price's senior season at Blackman HS in Tennessee didn't go great for the team. Price actually had a losing record, but Price's star was large enough for Baseball America to rank him as the #1 high school prospect in the state (#2 overall) and the #69 prospect in the country. At the time he was a big left-handed pitcher with off the charts projection. His fastball had reached 94, but he sat right around 90 MPH. He flashed a curveball with potential as well. He was considered a tough sign because he was a great student and had committed to Vanderbilt. It wasn't until the 19th round that the Los Angeles Dodgers took a flier on him, of course they never signed him and he enrolled at Vandy.

Price broke out in 2005 in his first season for the Commodores. He got in 16 games, starting ten of them. He struck out 92 batters in under 70 innings (11.94 K/9). He finished with a superb overall line and was recognized as a second team Freshman All-American by Baseball America. For the summer he was one of the few freshmen to be selected for Team USA, where he continued to flourish.

Date	Opp	Dec	IP	R	ER	H	K	BB
2/17	@ San Diego	L	4.2	7	6	5	7	6
2/22	Tenn Tech		1.0	0	0	0	3	0
2/24	Pittsburgh		6.0	1	1	4	9	1
3/3	Ball State	L	8.0	3	2	5	10	2
3/10	Brown	W	7.0	1	1	4	15	1
3/17	@ Ole Miss	W	7.0	3	1	5	10	2
3/24	Auburn	W	9.0	0	0	1	11	2
3/31	@ Florida	W	8.0	0	0	5	13	0
4/5	@ Austin Peay		1.0	1	1	1	2	0
4/7	#21 Arkansas	W	8.0	1	1	3	17	4
4/14	#8 Georgia		5.2	5	5	8	7	3
4/22	@ #6 Alabama	L	6.1	8	8	10	4	1
4/28	#13 Kentucky	W	6.0	5	4	10	9	3
5/5	@ Tennessee	L	3.1	9	8	9	3	2
5/10	Lipscomb		2.0	0	0	0	2	0
5/13	@ LSU	W	7.0	2	2	4	8	5
5/19	South Carolina	W	7.0	4	4	4	9	6
5/25	@ South Carolina	W	7.0	1	1	6	8	1
6/3	#10 Georgia Tech	L	6.1	7	7	8	8	5

He started four games and struck out 39 batters in 28.2 innings of work. He was named second team All-Summer by Baseball America.

Price's sophomore season started out phenomenally. Through the first week of April he was sitting at 5-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 97 K's in 59.7 innings of work .He had made eight starts and struck out at least ten in six of them. Price faded completely with the rest of the Commodores by the end of the season. The next four starts he gave up eight runs twice and four and five earned the other times. By the end of the season his ERA had ballooned to 4.24 overall, but his independent ERA finished in the mid 2's, so it probably wasn't a huge concern. His command and mechanics was what he lost, he still had good strikeout numbers though not nearly as dominant as earlier in the season. As you can see on the game-by-game breakdown he really slumped at the end.

All things considered it was a good season for David Price, but he certainly wants to finish his junior season better than last year. However, Price went back to Team USA this summer where he was the best prospect on the team - a lofty ranking considering his teammate Pedro Alvarez was on it. His command returned and he struck out 61 batters in 44 innings allowing just 7 walks and gave up all of one earned run. He was named Baseball America's Summer Player of the Year.

David Price enters 2007 as perhaps the best pitcher in college baseball and one of the best in the nation. He's got to avoid the meltdowns in order to develop. Gone is his curveball he showed in high school, now he throws his fastball in the low 90s hitting as high as 97 in the summer and a plus slider that's in the mid 90s. His changeup has become an average pitch. Price's starts will be updated here, as the Cubs certainly will look at him if his bonus demands have him slide to the Cubs and/or Matt Wieters is gone. He has the potential to take a Mark Prior-2001 jump his final season and become that kind of talent.

Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects: #6

2007-01-05T07:04:00.000-06:00

#6 Eric Patterson, 2b

Year	Team	Lv	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	HR	SO	BB	SB	CS
2002	Ga Tech	NCAA	.346	.438	.458	260	3	42	37	41	9
2003	Ga Tech	NCAA	.274	.351	.375	248	2	44	29	45	6
2004	Ga Tech	NCAA	.326	.433	.508	264	9	54	52	48	7
2005	Peoria	A	.333	.405	.535	432	13	94	53	40	11
	W. Tenn	AA	.200	.324	.267	30	0	7	6	3	2
2006	W. Tenn	AA	.263	.330	.408	441	8	89	46	38	12
	Iowa	AAA	.358	.395	.493	67	2	9	6	8	0

Eric Patterson has a lot of similarities to his brother. Eric was viewed as an unsignable pure athlete coming out of high school in the 2001 draft. Due to his talents and connections he was snagged early on the second day of the draft by the Rockies, but he took up college at Georgia Tech.

Eric burst onto the scene with a sensational freshman season. He was named first team All-ACC, first team freshman all-american and third team all-american. Patterson slumped his sophomore season, but bounced back with an excellent final season. He was ranked as the 59th best prospect in the 2004 draft by Baseball America, but once he signed with Scott Boras like his brother he begun to slip. The Cubs didn't have a pick in the first fifty, so they had a little bit of extra cash to spend and took him with their eigth round pick and signed him for third round money.

Patterson started out his professional career in 2005 in the Midwest League where he overmatched younger players than him. He ran into a bit of a roadblock this season as he skipped Daytona and went to West Tenn. He displayed a little bit more patience than expected but it wasn't a great year. He did finish it with a bright spot in the final few weeks of the season after a promotion to Triple A Iowa. Patterson then backed up his late season success with a good performance in the Arizona Fall League.

Much like Corey, Eric has solid tools across the board. He's a gifted runner with plus speed and the potential to swipe thirty bases every year in the majors. He's got very good hitting skills and can flat-out scoot out of the box to first. He doesn't have the same power that his brother does, but he can hit double-digit homers with thirty steals. I am sure the first thing that runs through your mind is what about his discipline that his brother can't do. He's not the poster boy for the walks and no strikeouts, but he's a lot better than his brother. He's shown average walk skills and slightly below average contact skills. He can fall in love with his power at times which hurt him in these aspects. Defensively he's no Orlando Hudson, but he's solid.

In a perfect world Eric Patterson can become a solid all-around starting 2b. I envision him becoming a .280/.340/.420 and 30 SBs type 2b with the Cubs. Not great, but solid nonetheless. He's nearly ready right now. He's probably a better bet to hit those numbers than Mark DeRosa, but I am not the GM or manager. Eric's going to be in Iowa this season where he should have another solid season wasting away. One thing's for sure, the Iowa Cubs are going to have one great team next season.

Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects: #7

2007-01-04T07:40:00.000-06:00

#7 Chris Huseby, RHP

There's no business posting his stat lines. There are a whole seventeen innings professionally and less than that his senior year in high school. The Cubs' 2006 draft had little at the top because they did not have picks 2-4. This allowed them to invest heavily on tough signs with upside. A couple other guys that fall under this category are Andrew Rundle and Cliff Anderson. Chris Huseby certainly has the potential to be a very good investment. The Cubs felt he was good enough to invest in him with a seven figure bonus.

Following his sophomore season in high school Huseby hit he showcase circuit and made quite a name for himself. He went to the 2004 Underclassman National Showcase and impressed the Perfect Game scouts. They gave him the coveted 10 PG Rating which goes to potential first round talents. At the time he was throwing 84-88 with his fastball and threw a hard KO curveball. Both pitches had plus potential.

Huseby went into his junior season and was having a stellar season until he complained of elbow problems. It turned out that he needed Tommy John surgery. Huseby did not return until his senior season. He didn't get much action only going in short stints at a time. Most teams thought his committment to Auburn was too solid to sign him so they didn't bother sending their crosscheckers. The Cubs sent theirs to watch him and came away impressed. They graded him as a first round talent and took him with their 11th round pick and eventually signed him for a 11th round record $1.3m.

Obviously, the Cubs wanted to be catious with the guy returning from such a serious arm injury. They kept him out of some of the Arizona Fall League season and he ended up getting into six games towards the end but was on strict pitch limits. He did not qualify for Baseball America's top 20 prospects for the AFL, but they did note he would have made the top ten if he had pitched a few more innings. It looks like Tim Wilken stole this kid.

On the mound there's a lot of potential from Huseby. The first thing that jumps out at you is his height. He's a mammoth 6'7" beast. He throws a plus fastball that is 90-93 touching 94. His projection on the pitch is through the roof and it should develop into a plus fastball. His second pitch is a knockout hard curveball that before his injury was a plus pitch and one of the best in the country. It's a true power curve that is a strike out pitch. He's also added a new wrinkle, a changeup that should develop into a serviceable pitch.

Before the injury Huseby had good command and clean mechanics. He's supposed to be a great kid with good work ethic. So far he's made a great recovery from the injury. If anything that has shown that he's going to work at everything. Drafting pitchers with arm injury histories is risky, but in cases like this it probably shows devotion from the kid.

Huseby is a long ways away. Still, he's a projectable righty with two potential plus pitches and strikeout potential with command. That's something the Cubs cannot develop to save their lives. His ceiling is among the highest in the organization from the arms (or position players for that matter). It remains to be seen what the Cubs decide to do with Chris. Given that he's still working his way back from the injury, he's probably ticketed for the Mesa Instructional League for the first half of the season and then on his way to Boise for the Northwest League. I doubt the Cubs will promote him to full-season Peoria to open up the season considering he hasn't pitched five innings in a game in several years. Maybe he'll pitch well in Boise and get a late promotion to Peoria. It would be nice to see a 1-2-3 punch of Jose Ceda, Mark Pawelek and Chris in Peoria, but don't get your hopes up.

Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects: #8

2007-01-03T08:08:00.000-06:00

#8 Scott Moore, 3B

Year	Team	Lv	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	HR	SO	BB	SB	CS
2002	GCL Tigers	Rk	.293	.349	.459	133	4	31	10	1	2
2003	West Mich	A	.239	.325	.363	372	6	110	41	2	4
2004	Lakeland	A+	.223	.322	.384	391	14	125	49	2	4
2005	Daytona	A+	.281	.358	.485	466	20	134	55	22	7
2006	W. Tenn	AA	.276	.360	.479	463	22	126	55	12	7
	Iowa	AAA	.250	.250	.500	4	0	1	0	0	0
	Chi Cubs	MLB	.263	.317	.474	38	2	10	2	0	0

Scott Moore has been profiled here before. Not much has changed except that he went out to the Arizona Fall League. The results weren't great as he struck out 28 times in 104 at-bats. The saving grace from his play was 15 walks as he continues to be the only decent prospect the Cubs have that knows the value of the walk. It truly is an issue for the system that needs to be addressed as soon as possible.

Like Jae-kuk Ryu, Scott Moore will probably never be an impact player for the Cubs. Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez are locked up longterm and by the time they are gone Moore will be in his late 20s and his time to establish himself will be over. He's a decent trade target, and he's certainly a useful player the Cubs can have off the bench.

Moore can hit for good power, and has solid on base skills. The biggest issue with him has been contact. Still, strikeouts can be expected if you hit for power and draw a decent amount of walks. He's got a nice swing and shows good 25 home run power.

Defensively he's athletic enough to play some shortstop in a short stretch, so he can probably hold down second for a couple outings here in there. As a bench utility player for the Cubs he could make a big impact. He could backup literally every position but catcher and centerfield and give the Cubs some much needed left-handed pop off the bench and in the lineup.

For him personally letting him develop in Iowa has to be the best course of action, and probably the most likely scenario. The Cubs will probably be in the trade market the next season or so, and there will certainly be teams interested in a lefty with significantly above average power.

Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects: #9

2007-01-02T16:21:00.000-06:00

#9 Jeff Samardzija, RHP

Year	Team	Lv	W	L	IP	H	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
2004	Notre Dame	NCAA	5	3	64.0	50	42	17	2.95	1.05
2005	Notre Dame	NCAA	8	1	78.2	85	56	30	3.89	1.46
2006	Notre Dame	NCAA	8	2	97.2	101	61	37	4.33	1.41
2006	Boise	A-	1	1	19.0	18	13	6	2.37	1.26
2006	Peoria	A	0	1	11.0	6	4	6	3.27	1.00

Jeff Samardzija had an illustrious college career, but not on the baseball field. The standout widereceiver looks to go in the first round of the NFL Draft and may never continue his baseball career long enough to develop into a major leaguer. He has said that he would like to do both at the same time, but he plays a physically demanding position in football and a skill intensive position in baseball. His right arm should be too precious to withstand such a beating it's going to take from NFL defensive players. I almost thought about leaving him off this list because of it, but his big arm is too good.

Samardzija has created a rift between scouts and statheads when it comes to grading him. Scouts look at him and see a tall pitcher with a great durable body. They also see his big fastball that touched 99 MPH in the Big East Tournament a few times. They also point out his fastball peaked at 96 in each game last spring. It was also the first season in baseball he didn't run through spring football practice - giving him legs to pitch with. His velocity spiked, and because of his lack of development he's got more projection in him than the normal college junior.

Statistically speaking for Samardzija there isn't much to like. Even with his big fastball he's never shown an ability to strike out hitters at any time in his career. His command has been spotty at best and the lone thing he's shown is an ability to keep the ball in the yard. The question remains as to whether that's a product of NCAA Big East hitters or his stuff.

Scouts can counter this argument with Samardzija boggling two sports which make it harder for him to perfect his secondary pitches and develop his out pitches. The problem is, Samardzija wants to do both professionaly so how exactly is he going to develop them while doing the same routine? His fastball sits 91-94 and his slider has the makings of a good pitch, but the consistency is not there. Also, his fastball is relatively straight and professional hitters can hit a straight fastball.

There's a lot to like with Samardzija, but there is a lot of things that could potentially stagnate his development. In a perfect world he quits football, sticks to baseball. This would allow his velocity to sustain in the mid-to-upper 90s and his natural athleticism and clean delivery should allow him to develop solid to above average command. His offspeed pitches have shown promise, but their is no consistency. If Samardzija can develop his potential is as high as just about anyone in the systems. Rightnow he's a thrower without commitment.

Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects: #10

2007-01-01T17:20:00.000-06:00

#10 Jae-kuk Ryu, RHP

Year	Team	Lv	W	L	IP	H	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
2001	Az Cubs	Rk	1	0	14.2	11	20	5	0.61	1.09
2002	Boise	A-	6	1	53.0	45	56	25	3.57	1.32
2002	Lansing	A	1	2	19.0	26	21	8	7.11	1.79
2003	Lansing	A	6	1	72.0	59	57	19	1.75	1.08
2003	Daytona	A+	0	1	20.2	14	22	11	3.05	1.21
2003	W. Tenn	AA	2	5	58.0	63	45	25	5.43	1.52
2004	W. Tenn	AA	1	0	18.1	22	19	10	2.95	1.75
2005	W. Tenn	AA	11	8	169.2	154	133	49	3.34	1.20
2006	Iowa	AAA	8	8	139.1	123	114	51	3.23	1.25
2006	Cubs	MLB	0	1	15.0	23	17	6	8.40	1.93

Jae-kuk Ryu is best known for throwing a ball at a pitcher while with the Daytona Cubs a few years ago, but he's progressed himself into a solid all around prospect. He does not wow you with stuff these days, but he's got a full repetoire and could develop into a useful major league pitcher.

Once seen as a potential front-end of the rotation guy with a plus fastball, he has lost some zip on it the last few years. Instead of throwing in the mid 90s, Ryu has been in the low 90s most of the time, sometimes sitting in the high 80s. His fastball has good sinking action on it, and he has good arm action but the zip's just not there.

To support the fastball he has an above average curveball and a nice changeup, as well as a solid slider. He's got four average to above average pitchers with command and should be able to make it as a mid to back end of the rotation guy, but he's never been given a long look with the Cubs for whatever reason. He's very underrated by Cubs' management, considering he's one of their few prospects who has a clue on where his pitches are going.

Makeup has alays been the problem with Ryu. The osprey incident is not the only thing that has ever come up. He does not get along well with his teammates and does not always seemed focus on the mound. Regardless he's displayed an ability to get AA and AAA hitters out with regularity and has been durable for most of his career. With the Cubs Ryu will probably never become a starter, and the most likely scenario is the Ricky Nolasco route in a trade where he develops into a decent pitcher.

The Future of the Future

2007-01-01T10:38:00.000-06:00

Despite having just one pick in the first one hundred and forty-eight picks the Cubs' draft produced three guys in Baseball Prospectus' Top 10 Prospects for the Cubs. This says as much about the state of the system as much as it does anything else, but it's still nice. Tim Wilken and company used cash to buy bigger names later in the draft, like power righty Chris Huseby.

This year the Cubs will have two picks in the first thirty-one picks, and only lose one of their picks instead of three. They will have the third pick in the draft and the first pick in the sandwich round. This year's draft class is as talented as anyone in recent memory. The top three prospects could be similar to Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira and Mark Prior.

Quite a few draft prospect lists have been released already. There are some I have acccess to and others that I do not. When it comes to draft stuff, PG Crosschecker might be the best place for information, but their pay stuff is very expensive and their low level subscription does not even grant access to the lists and scouting reports. Baseball America's regular subscription gives access to a lot of BA stuff, but of course not the Prospect Plus stuff which is similar to PG's.

Baseball America's most recent list for 2007 high school draft prospects is from December 13. The top two players are pitchers Matt Harvey and Rick Porcello. A lot of other guys are interesting for the 31 pick for the Cubs, like a Michael Main, Justin Jackson or Neil Ramirez. The Cubs' system needs offensive prospects who are relatively advanced, so it's hard to see the Cubs going after a high school product ith the third pick.

In the college ranks the big three is impressive, but only one of them is an offensive threat. If Matt Wieters is there at the third pick, it's going to be hard to see the Cubs passing him up. Wieters will be profiled more on this blog, but he's a very good all-around hitter. Personally I love Andrew Brackman and David Price, but I just don't think the Cubs will go with either of them myself. Baseball America does have a top fifty prospects including college and high school, but the HS part of it is outdated as this was written on October 13.

For those of you who don't have a subscription at Baseball America and still want a nice list of prospects, always check out BrewerFan.net's 2007 Draft Database. It is an excellent place for information on the elite prospects that does not have a high price tag. And now, I have my favorite ten prospects for the draft as of right now.

1. David Price, LHP - Vanderbilt
2. Andrew Brackman, RHP - North Carolina State
3. Matt Wieters, C - Georgia Tech
4. Matt Harvey, RHP - Fitch HS (Conn)
5. Rick Porcello, RHP - Seton Hall Prep (NJ)
6. Michael Burgess, 1B/OF - Hillsborough HS (Fla)
7. Blake Beavan, RHP - Irving HS (Tx)
8. Michael Main, RHP - Deland HS (Fl)
9. Josh Vitters, 3B - Cypress HS (Cal)
10. JP Arencibia, C - Tennessee

As you can see the HS class is very deep in the top of the first round picks. Really there are a few guys who can go ahead of Arencibia, but I think advanced catchers are a great thing to have, just because catching is such a rarity.

The Marquis to Success

2006-12-27T22:08:00.000-06:00

In a word, this rant (or blogpost as some of you people like to call it) can be summarized as idiotic. The Man, Jim Hendry decided that it was a good move signing Jason Marquis for three years and twenty-one million dollars. I can't even begin to describe how bad this is financially. It is no secret that Marquis sucks, but magically he won fourteen games last season and that's, sadly, a stat that Hendry pays attention to. Marquis had a WHIP over 1.50 and an ERA over 6.00. Yet, somehow our brilliant GM decides to give him a contract worth seven million a year annually.

JH validated this by saying that "He was going to get $20 to $21 million from three or four different [teams]; that was a definite." Well JH, if everyone jumped off a cliff would you? I guess yes, because you just did. JH dug himself further into the hole by arguing that "a lot of precedent [was] set way before Jason [Marquis]. Adam Eaton got $8 million [a year], and Gil Meche got $11 million [a year], and there were a lot of people in between. Certainly over a three-year look back, Jason's statistics, and wins, certainly validate that kind of a salary."

Wins? Obviously there was a significantly added advantage that Jason Marquis on his win column over some 'lesser' pitchers like the aforementioned Adam Eaton: Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen. One of these days JH is going to realize that there are two parts to each baseball game, run production and run prevention. Pitchers (usually) only impact the prevention part of the equation, and defense affects prevention so he's factoring in on less than half of the games. Marquis can hit, but that does not negate the six plus earned run average he had.

Also, one of the most retarded things that can be done is project ERA using ERA. It's a statistic with a very high amount of volatility from year to year. Also, it's not a true indication of how good a pitcher produces. The Cardinals are renowned for having one of the better defenses in baseball the last few seasons, and most GMs don't seem to account for defense on a pitcher's ERA. Also ERA in it of itself is flawed. Generally speaking errors are relatively predictable based on things like GB rates, etc. RA is much better and using RA for Marquis seems more useful considering his (prior) high groundball tendencies.

Looking at RA for 2006 is pointless, he's terrible no matter how you slice it. Looking at RA for 2005 shows him to be a little below average RA+ wise relative to the suggestion that his ERA+ makes (103). Regardless, he was lucky. There are essentially three things that go along with projections for pitchers. First, strikeout rates. The ability to limit balls in play cannot go underestimated. Due to the nature of a BABIP, the batting average on a strike out is zero. The batting average on a dribbler in the infield is over .250. Secondly, walk rates. Walks can be a useful tool in the NL, but certainly not in the American League as there isn't a pitcher. Still, putting runners on base in any situation is stupid. Finally, groundball rates do matter as they are nearly directly tied to flyball rates which connect to home run output.

In order to succeed in the majors, you usually need to possess two of the three at a good rate. Sometimes your high K pitchers can get on by just an elite K rate that's several standard deviations above the mean. Marquis on the other hand has seemingly possessed none of them for most of his career. Marquis' strikeout rate has been below average for his entire career. It's not a new development and it has continued. Marquis' walk rates have been below average for most of his career. He did have some nice GB rates in 2005 and 2004, but he didn't possess that in this season. Obviously when you have none of the three you won't last long in the majors. IF Larry Rothschild found the flaw in his sinker, then I'll concede that he can have that skill back somewhat. It's not a 95th percentile skill, but 80th which is pretty good. However, he's probably never going to acquire the other two - which are more important. The prognosis based on that isn't good. His ERA is probably going to be in the high fours and damn close to five.

Now, last season we had guys like Sean Marshall, Angel Guzman and others combine for worse numbers than five ERA's. But once again we shouldn't look at that to make our decision. Sean Marshall actually outproduced Marquis last season in ERA, and is 24 years old and will get less than $400,000 next season. Angel Guzman bottomed out last season. He showed flashes of dominance and certainly had the stuff to survive in the majors - no one doubts that. Given the circumstances he was fine. He essentially was out for two season due to injuries, and then made the jump from AA to MLB. It's hard to make that jump without missing two seasons. A rocky beginning to his career should have been expected. However on the triple a circuit he was dominant. And he's continued that run of success into the winter season in VWL where he currently sports a nifty 21:4 K:BB.

At the bottom end Guzman probably has an ERA around 5.15 next sason with potential for a lot more. If he's at 5.15 and you factor in "less" durabitlity which means decent RPs coming in an for an extra inning, that combined ERA in Marquis timeframe of 4.90 would be the same. Guzman is also a great breakout candidate this season and we choked him off for this year by signing Marquis.

Terrible.

Alfonso Soriano

2006-12-11T17:14:00.000-06:00

Dammit Jim, you really did not listen to me. It was not a very good signing. The Cubs could have spent just as much money as they did for Soriano and Mark DeRosa and signed Julio Lugo and Ray Durham. They would have gotten about twice as much of an increase in runs that way. But oh well.

Well, there's one thing about the Soriano that is helpful. It's backloaded. In the new CBA the minimum salary is going to go up by about seven percent on average each year for the next three seasons. Over long hauls this has mirrored both the average salary and average payroll growth. Since the 2002 season the latter figures have had annual growth rates around four percent. Given the market this season, I'd say that's going to go up significantly with marginal players getting eight figures. For simplicity purposes I am going to average the figures to get an estimate of the price index annual growth rates for major league baseball players over the length of the Soriano contract. They average to about 5.98%.

Soriano got eight million dollars the day he signed the contract, I don't believe the Cubs spread out the payment of his signing bonus, so it's relavent. It doesn't even go on the 2007 payroll. Signing bonuses and contract buyouts do not go in the payroll nor are they subject to the luxury tax. At this point, for all intents and purposes the Soriano deal is eight years and 128 million, still a large chunk of change. Soriano is officially making nine million next season, which in 2006 dollar terms would be about $8,500,000. In the sense of one year it doesn't make that big of a deal. However, since the deal is severely backloaded with him making 18 million a year the last five years of the contract - none of them are worth over fifteen million in 2006 deal terms. In fact the eighteen million he is due in 2014 is worth less than Kerry Wood's 2006 salary. The entire value of the contract is worth less than $100 million over the course of the contract.

Of course this says nothing about the value (or lackthereof) his contract is. It's just an analysis to show how signing players to backloaded contracts in this sense are good. Also the net present value of the contract isn't 136 million - or 128 however you want to look at it. It's about 108 million, which of course is a lot. On the other side of the coin, we have Carlos Lee's contract. It's backloaded, but only as a deal that's short. In real terms, Lee is going to make more each season than Soriano except 2007. The oh wow shock value impact (not adjusting for baseball inflation) for AS contract is over 30 million, but under 20 million for Carlos Lee. That said, Carlos Lee isn't signed for 2013 or 2014 which makes a difference.

Cleaning House

2006-11-16T22:36:00.000-06:00

It's been a long long time. I've been consumed with a little thing called Final Fantasy XII, but of course. It should be all fine and dandy from here on out. There are a lot of things to catch up on!

First of all my thoughts on the news of today. The Cubs traded David Aardsma to the White Sox for Neal Cotts. I am a bit torn on the move. I thought Aardmsa turned the corner and was well on his way developing into a good middle reliever the second half of the season. From late August on he might have been our best reliever. Cotts is a big lefty with decent stuff. He was the exact opposite of Aardsma last season and was similar to Scott Eyre. He had a phenomenal 2005 season and was well on his way of doing it again in 2006 before he flat out fell on his face in August and September. He falled hard. There's a pretty good chance that he bounces back to being a fine lefty reliever. The only question is why? Why do we need another lefty reliever. We have Eyre, Will Ohman and the severely underrated Clay Rapada waiting in the wings. Of course one of the first two is a lock to be traded in some deal. The rumors have Eyre going to Cleveland in a package for either Jake Westbrook or Cliff Lee. If this move makes Scott Eyre more expendable and increases the likelihood of Westbrook coming to Chicago I am all for it. If this move makes Scott Eyre more expendable and increases the likelihood of Cliff Lee coming to Chicago I am all against it.

Next bit of older news, the Cubs signed Mark DeRosa to a three year contract worth $13 million to play second for us. This is a move I could defend if he was going to platoon with Jacque Jones in right and be a super utility player, but we've got a similar player that costs $300,000 in Ryan Theriot. This is a terrible deal. We're paying a guy over $4,000,000 who has a career EqA that's below average. I take that back, we're paying two two guys like that. On the outside this looks like a terrible deal, and it does in the inside as well. The guy's turning 32 before the start of the season too.

Next bit of even older news, the Cubs re-signed Kerry Wood to an incentive laden 1 year deal with a base salary of $1.75 million. Now that is a good move. We had a logjam in our bullpen, but it's a guy who could potentially be the best closer in the league. I really hope we don't use him that way and utilize him as the classic relief ace. Where he would come in during the 7th inning and shut the door. He wouldn't be available every night that way, but we'd have plenty of other quality guys who could close out games like Bob Howry and Michael Wuertz. Also, kudos to Kerry being a standup guy and seriously signing where his heart and desires were. He deserves better.

And finally for the oldest news, the Cubs re-signed Aramis Ramirez to a huge contract worth 75 million. With his lackluster defense, the Cubs probably overpaid. but they have the resources and certainly needed him more than most, so it is justified. He probably would have gotten even more from the Angels, so I'll take it.

All in all Jimbo is three for four this offseason. Right now, with predicted arbitration figures totalling $12 million for Carlos Zambrano, Ohman and Cotts, the Cubs have a shade under $86 million devoted to the 2007 payroll. With the increases of the payroll into the neighborhood of $115 million, that gives the Cubs about $30 million to spend on two starting pitchers and a centerfielder. That figure could go up if the Cubs can shed the contracts of Scott Eyre and/or Cesar Izturis in the deal for Jake Westbrook. Jim Hendry has stated he won't be outbid for Alfonso Soriano and the Cubs look to be one of the favorites for JD Drew, so it could be interesting. One thing's for sure, Jim Hendry isn't being patient like he was in 2004.

Saito wins Sawamura Award

2006-10-25T22:02:00.000-05:00

Fukuoka Softbank Hawk Kazumi Saito won the Japanese Sawamura Award, the league's equivalent to the Cy Young. I hesitate to call him their ace, because they have four dominant starters when they're going right. Saito is the second consecutive Hawk to win the award and it is the third time in the last four years a Hawk has won it. Toshiya Sugiuchi won it last season before struggling much of the 2006 season. Kazumi Saito tied for the award in 2003 with Tiger Kei Igawa. Oddly enough, much like Sugiuchi, Saito crashed and burned his season after taking home the award.

There was little doubt that Saito was going to win the award. He beat out Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kenshin Kawakami and Hiroki Kuroda. Saito won the Pacific League triple crown and matched Matsuzaka start for start most of the season. Kuroda and Matsuzaka were very close to him though. Here would have been my top five:

1. Kazumi Saito, 18-5 1.75 ERA
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka, 17-5 2.13 ERA
3. Hiroki Kuroda 13-6 1.85 ERA
4. Kenshin Kawakami 17-7 2.51 ERA
5. Kei Igawa 14-9 2.97 ERA

Cuban Hitters

2006-10-25T00:56:00.000-05:00

For years a tiny island of Cuba has dominated the international baseball world. Cuba has a set of leagues that their players play in and hone their skills. The major league, the Cuban National League, has 16 teams and plays a 90 game schedule from late Novemeber until mid April. After this season ends the best players play in a semi All-Star league. This league is called the Cuban Super League and consists of for teams who play thirty games. Only players from this league are eligible for the Cuban National team that plays on the international level.

The relative quality of the National League isn't easy to define. Unlike the Japanese Leagues or even Mexico, there simply isn't a constant flow in and out of the league to America to grade the league. All of the data we have is coming out and is subject to a high degree of sample size issues. Still, Clay Davenport tried to gauge it from this data a couple years ago and found the quality play roughly the same as the Midwest League or the New York-Penn League, way at the bottom of the scale. Using the same method for Japan on the other hand gets a figure well above Triple A.

This leads to all sorts of questions. As defectors have shown, the high end talent from Cuba can certainly make it in the majors and perform at a high level. However, the average talent level for the Cuban National League is quite low. This leads to a very broad range of talent level on the individual level. You would get some Johan Santana versus Marcos Vechionacci or Albert Pujols versus Kris Johnson matchups. You'll also get some variants in between like Adam Stern versys Kris Johnson. If Albert Pujols and Stern bothed faced a lot of weak pitching equivalent to the low majors, I would doubt you'd be able to notice much of a difference in their stat line.

The end result, on the offensive side, is a lot of guys with absurd batting lines. For instance, in 2006 the league average batting line was .293/.369/.421, and out of the guys who had 200 PA, four had an on-base percentage over .500 and four had batting average over .400. The unpredictable weather seasons from year to year has also led to varying levels of offense on the year to year basis. 2006 was a high level of offense, but in 2005 the average was .281/ .333/.400 a huge difference. Not only do all of these differences cause an issue of comparing players, but the season is only 90 games, making it less reliable to guage a players true ability which is so crucial in predicting a players future.

While the range is quite high, as I've said the elite talent is pretty good. The Cuban Super League is probably similar to Double A or Triple A. At least mathematically, let's compare it to Japan and the Dominican Winter League. Both leagues grade out significantly better, with the DWL being in the middle of AA and AAA and Japan being AAAA borderline MLB. The CNL has sixteen teams based off of Cuba's population of about 11,000,000 people, a relationship of about 700,000 people per team. Japan has a population of over 120,000,000 spread over twelve teams, a relationship of about 10,000,000 people per team. The Dominican Republic only has a population of about 8,000,000, but it's a league that only consists of six teams so it's roughly 1,300,000 people per team. If we consider that each racial group produces the same quality of players based on a function of it's population base, we would expect a direct relationship between players per team and talent level. Just out of pure 'coincidence' Clay Davenport found the league rating of the CNL of like .400 and the rating of the DWL like .800, roughly twice as difficult. The relationship isn't linear, but it's going to be there. The Cuban Super League has four teams, and which raises the ratio to around 2,750,000 people per team, which should bring the concentrated talent level to a pretty high rating. There's almost no reason to even attempt to quantify this leagues difficulty because the sample size caveats are going to be even more problematic. Now, with all of that out of the way, here are the EqA leaders for 2006 in the league with a minimum of 200 PA.

Rk	EqA	AVG	OBP	SLG	Name, Team
1.	.333	.407	.548	.619	Yoandy Garlobo, MTZ
2.	.332	.425	.522	.616	Osmani Urrutia, LTU
3.	.329	.353	.454	.680	Joan Pedroso, LTU
4.	.326	.447	.559	.690	Michel Enriquez, IJV
5.	.319	.327	.416	.676	Yuliesky Gourriel, SSP
6.	.317	.320	.512	.559	Frederich Cepeda, SSP
7.	.315	.351	.442	.649	Yohenis Cespedes, GRA
8.	.306	.315	.447	.555	Alexander Mayeta, IND
9.	.300	.363	.435	.574	Leslie Anderson, CMG
10.	.300	.351	.428	.543	Roberqui Videaux, GTM
11.	.299	.362	.470	.482	Yoandry Urgelles, IND
12.	.298	.366	.454	.514	Pedro Poll, SCU
13.	.297	.346	.431	.514	Ariel Borrero, VCL
14.	.296	.340	.414	.565	Yordanis Samon, GRA
15.	.296	.303	.420	.544	Yosvani Peraza, PRI
16.	.295	.323	.397	.518	Jokel Gil, MET
17.	.295	.337	.393	.542	Dayan Viciedo, VCL
18.	.294	.351	.454	.507	Loidel Chapelli, CMG
19.	.294	.314	.421	.575	Vismay Santos, GTM
20.	.293	.340	.437	.512	Rolando Meriño, SCU
21.	.292	.330	.502	.402	Eduardo Paret, VCL
22.	.292	.353	.417	.508	Alexis Laborde, GTM
23.	.291	.329	.399	.523	Giorvis Duvergel, GTM
24.	.289	.317	.435	.500	Reutilio Hurtado, SCU
25.	.286	.310	.410	.539	Danny Miranda, CAV
26.	.285	.337	.423	.538	Jose Abreu, CFG
27.	.285	.321	.393	.485	Yeral Sanchez, HOL
28.	.285	.340	.400	.483	Amaury Suarez, LTU
29.	.284	.344	.396	.522	Yorelvis Charles, CAV
30.	.284	.322	.399	.523	Alexei Bell, SCU

Many of those players were on the Cuban National Team that played in the World Baseball Classic including almost all of the top 10. This list of hitters represent the top third or so of the offensive players. All of them could probably make the majors in some sort of way, not all of them are starters, but some of them could defenitely and it would be quite foolish to think some of them would not be stars in America.

I am sure that the only reason some of you are reading this is because you want to hear more about Yuliesky Gourriel and the awesomeness that surrounds him. He actually became the first Cuban player ever to have 20 steals and 20 homers in the CNL season. He played all 90 games and led the league in home runs (27), runs batted in (92), runs scored (89) and triples (11). He also became the first player in the league history to have fifty extra base hits. His biggest problem of course, was his discipline. In years past it was due to horrible walk rates, but this year he actually had a good one. He walked 51 times to just 30 strike outs, but his batting average was low and thus his on base percentage too. There were four guys with obp's over .500 by 12 points, his obp was just 16 points over .400. However, he played every inning of every game so he produced more runs than anyone with his bat.

In 2005 he was 6th in the league in EqA, at .315, but his season this year was a marked improvement. His batting average dropped by 30 points but his obp went up by 40 points and his slugging percentage went up by 70 points. If we merge the two seasons as an all-time EqA like stat, we will find EqA in 2005 of .311 and one this season of .324. His EqA last season translated to a .285 mark in the US, but the previous season he was .296. His season this year is probably closer to the latter. He might just be the best second baseman on the planet, and he played this season at 22. He's certainly 25-35 homer guy at the plate presently with room to grow. Unfortunately the likelihoud of Gourriel defecting is next to nilch. We'll just have to wait for the regime to fall.

The other guy you might be interested in is the 16 year old with a .245 (!) translated EqA going into the season. Dayan Viciedo was 17th. He didn't show great discipline, but man he's going to be fun to watch. Cuba is the main reason I am going to love the WBC. Learn to love it. While Americans and scouts talk about Gourriel's talents and wish they had him on their hands, Viciedo is heralded as the next Omar Linares on the island, and everyone's all over him. He's never played in front of a large international audience, outside of some small Junior World Championships. He'll get his first chance this November in the Intercontinental Cup.

Tigers!

2006-10-23T22:17:00.000-05:00

Alan Trammel has been hired by the Cubs for two years as Lou Piniella's bench coach. He knows a lot about coaching players the game, but he's another guy who - at least in Detroit - didn't have a clue on what it takes to win a game. I am so glad the Cubs are able to put guys like this on their coaching staff with such ease. As Michael Lewis would say, the Cubs just keep rehiring members of the club, which can cause an eternal reign of losing. On a second note, Trammel and his double player partner, Lou Whitaker, need to be in the Hall of Fame. Both guys are deserving, just go look at the saber alphabet soup stats.

Japanese Pitchers

2006-10-22T00:12:00.001-05:00

Over the last few seasons, Japanese pitchers have had quite a bit success in the majors. Relievers such as Shingo Takatsu have come over and had immediate success as a closer. Starters such as Hideo Nomo and Kazuhisa Ishii had initial success. However the crash and burn everyone points to his Hideki Irabu. Irabu and Ishii had varying success in Japan and initially enjoyed some in the major leagues, however eventually each of them were busts. The main reason could be embedded in the Japanese stat lines. Both guys were near the bottom of the league consistently when it came to walks. They had good stuff, although their fastballs dropped in the US - but the walk environment in Japan is a lot different than the US. In Japan the average walk rate is about 2.7 per 9 innings, but in the US it's over 3. So we would expect them to be hurt a lot by the change, moreso than the average Japanese starter. It's similar to home runs, where both guys had high homer rates for Japan, and the US is a lot more homer friendly.

However, Daisuke Matsuzaka's different. He does not have too many problems with the long ball, 13 this year in 186.3 innings. He also has well-above average command for the league. All of these things would allow us to believe that he would have a better translation to the american game. The translations I did involved adjusting their walk and home run rates to an american environment, calculating their FIP in Japan and then converting that to a 4.50 ERA environment using pythagorean. I then divided it by .925 to get a league difficultly adjustment. I am completely aware that this may have double counted the difficulty adjustment and the results I got bear that out. Later on I wish to find exact relationships between strikeout, walk, and home run rates using actual data of players swithing leagues, then calculating their FIP in the US using the MLB fip constant for the season. This time, I did find a good list on who would be able to do the best:

3.52 Daisuke Matsuzaka
3.68 Hiroki Kuroda
3.73 Kazumi Saito
3.94 Rick Guttormson
4.29 Naoyuki Shimizu
4.38 Yuya Ando
4.38 Dicky Gonzalez
4.39 Jeremy Powell
4.44 Masanori Ishikawa
4.58 Nagisa Arakaki
4.59 Shinobu Fukuhara
4.61 Kei Igawa
4.63 Daisuke Miura
4.64 Kazuhisa Ishii
4.64 Tetsuya Utsumi
4.82 Masahiro Yamamoto

Among the pitchers with 100 innings pitched, this list is the top third. The top third in the EqA translations were all above average in the US. Here 4.50 would be average in the US, so it looks as if I may have double counted a bit. Dicky Gonzalez, Jeremy Powell and Ishii have all spent time in the majors. Ishii's career ERA in the USA was 4.44 and his last season 4.71, so I guess it's a fair translation for him. Gonzalez hasn't had a lot of time in the US, but in his longest stint in 2001 he had a 4.88 ERA. It's tough with him because he was 22 at the time. In his only stint as a starter, Jeremy Powell had a 4.73 ERA as a 23 year old. All of these lead to suggest in a general sense there's nothing wrong with these translations. In case you were wondering, the starter who struck out Bonds three times in 2002 and dominated the US in the WBC, Koji Uehara had a 5.64 translation. Uber Japanese phenom Yu Darvish had a 5.86 translation but it's good to remember he spent most of the season as a teenager. Finally, 2005 Sawamura Award winnner Toshiya Sugiuchi had a rough season and translated at well over 6.00 after having a statline last season that would have translated to a mid 3.00s ERA. I will do these for previous seasons and see the trends.

Finally, I would like to talk about the one and only Kyuji Fujikawa. It might be time to wonder how good this guy is compared to the elite major league closers. His fastball runs in the in the mid 90s sitting at 92-93. He has quite possibly the best forkball in the history of the game and a plus slider. He's never been tried as a starter over a full season for the Hanshin Tigers, but he's unfair out of the bullpen. Last year as a setup man he pitched 92.1 innings, struck out 139 guys to just 20 walks. He allowed 57 hits. He had a 1.36 ERA and was dominant out of the pen that took the Tigers to the Japan Series. However this year he was moved into the closing role and made his 2005 line look like weak. He pitched 79.1 innings with 122 strike outs and 22 walks. He allowed six runs. Six. He allowed 46 hits. He nearly had a 3:1 K:H ration and a 2:1 strikeout to baserunner ratio. His translated ERA was a hair over 2.00, but given the translation of guys like Takashi Saito and Kazuhiro Sasaki, he may do better. Unfortunately he's not a free agent for at least three more years.

Of these, the three guys the Cubs are rumored to be interested in include Matsuzaka, Hiroki Kuroda and Kazumi Saito. Kuroda had a fabulous season as the ace of the Hiroshima Toyo Carp. He throws a good fastball in the l0w 90s with a good slider and decent pure offspeed stuff. In the US, he's probably a #3 type starter. Saito is more of a finesse guy with a sinking fastball. His translation is similar, probably a Jeff Suppan type pitcher. Another guy who the Cubs could be interested in is Kei Igawa. Igawa is a power lefty who has command issues but can get the strikeout. I am not so sure he'd adapt so well to the majors. He has great stuff, but he's got the same sorts of problems in Japan that plagued Ishii, Irabu and even Hideo Nomo. There really has not been a starter with good command to cross the ocean.

Open Letter to Jim Hendry #1

2006-10-21T00:45:00.000-05:00

Dear Jim,

The Chicago Cubs need a lot of offense, it's true - but signing Alfonso Soriano will simply lead to disaster for this organization. There's no doubt that he's coming off of an excellent season, but to quote Albert Einstein "reality is merely an illusion." In order to move the Cubs in a good direction, one has to realize that the past is not always the greatest indicator of the future. Often one has dig deep for answers to simple questions, such as, "can Alfonso Soriano keep up the walk rate hike that he underwent at age 30?" As Lou Piniella has mentioned the Cubs are in need of proven guys who can get on base - and more importantly not make outs.

Last season Alfonso Soriano walked 67 times in 728 plate appearances, 9.2%. To put the increase into perspective, he walked 66 times in 1340 plate appearances the two previous seasons, 4.9%. His walk rate was 83% higher in 2006 than it was in 2004 or 2005. It would be understandable if a person who exhibited excellent walk rates in the minor leagues and was under 25 to undergo such a transformation, but a major league veteran at age 30?

Since 1900 among players with 300 ABs in three consecutive season such a condition has happened 37 times. Of these 37 players, 29 of them got 300 ABs the next season. On average they lost 48.9% of the gain they had. Only two of them managed to increase again the next season (Johnny Evers and Lave Cross). Due to sample size issues with the number of walks, I would throw out all dead ball era players. Doing so is going to leave us with a 20 player sample size, but oh well. These players lost an average of 53.5% of their gain. Two of them actually lost all of their gain (Carlos Lee and Shawon Dunston). Now, this is a graph of their relative walk rates compared to their 0 season, which would be the established season before the huge increase, in Soriano's case 2005.

As you can easily see, there's a huge dropoff after one year, but it's still above the established level for all of the players involved. However, there is another issue at work here. This year Soriano had sixteen intentional walks, nine more than he had the two years prior. Is this something to last? Possibly with his increased power - if his power increase is legitimate.

Once you factor out the intentional walks, you still find an increase of 62.1% on his walk rate. Doing the same above, we'd be able to find an additional 121 guys that fit our criteria, bringing the sample size to 141 live ball era players who increased their unintentional walk rate by over 62 percent. This sample size lost an average of 33.6% of their increase the second year, but they still had an increase of 53.5% over the established rate. Due to the much larger sample size, it may be possible to sort out the players by age brackets.

The brackets selected are pretty arbitrary. I used young as 20-24, prime as 25-29, past prime as 30-34 and old as 35 and up. The results are quite interesting, although there's an issue of which category Soriano is going to fall into:

Age Group	Sample Size	Year 1	Year 2	Change
20-24	26	+79.0%	+69.0%	-13.0%
25-29	74	+79.1%	+53.2%	-31.2%
30-34	35	+91.2%	+40.3%	-57.5%
35-40	6	+75.4%	+67.1%	-13.7%
29-31	33	+89.4%	+51.2%	-35.9%
Total	141	+81.9%	+53.5%	-33.6%

Remember, the change in the Year 2, is still relative to the baseline in the two years preceding the "breakout" year. Obviously, you can throw out the oldest age group due to sample size, but that does not matter. It's pretty obvious that breakout gains of the magnitude of Alfonso Soriano's clearly drop off quicker as the player gets older. Soriano spent this season as an age 30, so he's right on the cusp of the two. That's the reason at the bottom I added the 29-31 class. As you can see that age group is a lot closer to the 25-29 class. However, there is one small problem - Don Kolloway in 1948. He's inflating the system due to just 9 walks in his "base" season. So any increase is going not be a good representation. If you remove that season, you get a drastic change in results for the class. Most importantly they fall from +90.4% to +44.9% a loss of 47.2% of the increase.

All in all there is pretty good reason to believe that Soriano loses half of his increase in UBB walk rate. Whether or not he duplicates the high intentional walk rate depends on two things - his team, and finally the power output he has. Jim, for the Cubs these two things are going to pull into opposite ways. If acquired and he bats leadoff in a revamped lineup, odds are with Derrek Lee a couple batters behind him they're going to face him more, and not walk him to get to Matt Murton or whoever is in the second hole (except Cesar Isturis). The other issue is his power.

Not adjusting for park, Soriano had an increase of 20 percent on his power output, HR/PA. With a minimum of 350 AB and 15 homers, we have 346 such instances in the live ball era. On average, all of those hitters lost 48.8% of the power increase in the second year. I am not about to enter 386 ages, but odds are that there won't be some magic thing that makes 30 year olds more likely to sustain the power increase over the average aged hitter. Still, the sample would suggest a plus 10 percent power increase for Soriano, giving him roughly 40 homers. But Jim, beware of the sample size issue. Soriano batted 728 times last season, about 50 more than he did the previous year, so keep that in mind.

So all in all we'd expect Soriano to regress around 50 percent over his improvement. If you were to take that to EqA you'd expect him to have an EqA somewhere near .290 next season which is pretty average for him. Soriano had a huge season, but a .290 EqA in left field doesn't play well. However, it does fit nicely in centerfield, but the return on that is probably only worth maybe $10,000,000 not the higher figures he's more than likely going to get (and has rejected). Sure, his bat profiles well at 2B, but his .290 EqA is going to lead to at most 25-30 runs over an average 2B, 20 of which will get negated by his rock glove.

Sure, you might not be able to get a better centerfielder than him, but who said he is going to agree to play there? He's got options and will probably try to move back to second. In left field he's a decent choice, but is he that much better than Carlos Lee? Probably not. At second you can surely do better for cheaper. It's just not worth the price on him, no matter the impact his percieved value is. We already have issues with players like him, we need on base percentage. Guys who can walk. Soriano is clearly not that sort of player.

Jim, stay far far far away.

International Options - Hitters

2006-10-20T00:44:00.000-05:00

Recent rumors have suggested that the Cubs pulled their scouts at the end of the season in an effort to get a jump start on the offseason and scout potential newcomers. This does not just include players in the US, as they sent ace scout, Gary Hughes, to Asia. Of course he primary assignment was probably Daisuke Matsuzaka, but sources indicate that they found several other potential acquisitions. Now that the regular season is over, it's time to look at the top hitter in Japan and how they fared. With a minimum of 250 PA, here are the top 30 hitters with their positions.

.348 Kosuke Fukudome, Chunichi Dragons - RF
.340 Tyrone Woods, Chunichi Dragons - 1B
.333 Sung-Yeop Lee, Yomiuri Giants - 1B
.328 Nobuhiko Matsunaka, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks - DH
.320 Michihiro Ogasawara, Nippon Ham Fighters - 1B
.317 Alex Cabrera, Seibu Lions - 1B
.308 Tomoaki Kanemoto, Hanshin Tigers - LF
.306 Jose Fernandez, Rakuten Golden Eagles - 1B
.304 Akinori Iwamura, Yakult Swallows - 3B
.303 Kazuhiro Wada, Seibu Lions - LF
.302 Julio Zuleta, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks - 1B
.300 Yuki Yoshimura, Yokohama Baystars - CF
.300 Fernando Seguignol, Nippon Ham Fighters - DH
.297 Atsunori Inaba, Nippon Ham Fighters - RF
.296 Adam Riggs, Yakult Swallows - 1B
.295 Osamu Hamanaka, Hanshin Tigers - RF
.294 Hiroyuki Nakajima, Seibu Lions - SS
.292 Kazuki Inoue, Chunichi Dragons - LF
.291 Andy Sheets, Hanshin Tigers - 1B
.290 Tomoya Satozaki, Chiba Lotte Marines - C
.290 Benny Agbayani, Chiba Lotte Marines - LF
.289 Tomohiro Nioka, Yomiuri Giants - SS
.288 Kentaro Sekimoto, Hanshin Tigers - 3B
.286 Tomonori Maeda, Hiroshima Toyo Carp - LF
.286 Munenori Kawasaki, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks - SS
.285 Shuichi Murata, Yokohama Baystars - 3B
.284 Takashi Toritani, Hanshin Tigers - SS
.284 Norichika Aoki, Yakult Swallows - CF
.284 Kenta Kurihara, Hiroshima Toyo Carp - 3B
.283 Hiroki Kokubo, Yomiuri Giants - 3B

The multiplier to the US on average is about .925, which leave these hitters to all be above average hitters in the USA. Kosuke Fukudome's EqA translates to around .320 by this method - roughly Derek Jeter. There's a surprise for me that there are so many shortstops in the top 30, and one of them is not Marine shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who might wind up being the best of all of them, and the only reason he did not make this list was he wasn't his usual immortal self on the bases like last season. His EqA was .281 and with his career CS rate it would have been over .290 - by far the best season of his career. Speaking of Japanese shortstops, Hiroyuki Nakajima was the best in the league in 2004, but stumbled with contact in 2005 and now look he's back to being one of the top overall players in the league.

There's really only a couple of players the Cubs could acquire this season, as most of these players won't be coming stateside. The biggest one is Akinori Iwamura who hit .312/.388/.552 with 32 homers in a pretty hitter friendly ballpark. His numbers have been pretty constant near that level his time in Japan the last three seasons. His best season was 2004 where he knocked 44 homers. His EqA that year was .307 and in 2005 it was .307, so he's definitely leveled out at the level. Given the .925 rule, that would be about a .280 EqA each season - roughly what Ryan Zimmerman and Adrian Beltre did this season. Somewhere around a .280/.350/.450 hitter. Clay Davenport did translations before the WBC and got an average of about a .270 EqA and a .270/.340/.440 hitter out of him. The issue those two seasons were an extremely high strike out total in an environment that does not have a lot of those. However, he's cut down his strike out totals the last three years by about 30 each year while maintaining his power output. So I think that's going to be a pretty low translation. Most of the names rumored to crossing the pond our pitchers, and I'll look at them later. Those comparisons are probably pretty good as he's a tremendous defender who dazzled during the World Baseball Classic.

Uncle Lou!

2006-10-17T21:43:00.000-05:00

Lot's of stuff in the works for the Cubs. It was widely reported this weekend that Lou Piniella would be the Cubs new manager, and today he was officially announced as the manager. Aren't we greatful! Piniella signed a three year deal worth 10 million with a 5 million fourth year option. Jim Hendry has continued to overpay for mediocrity, but oh well we expected it and at the very least Piniella will be a very expensive clown for Cub fans to enjoy during his all too common meltdowns.

The Cubs have been at or near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage the last few seasons and Piniella seems to be saying all the right things on it, " my philosophy is to get eight midgets up there who walk all the time." That's just great, a huge turn around from Dusty Baker. So can we just trade for JD Drew already? It would be a great start. Well, after that he said something not so encouraging "I don't like to sit and wait for the three-run homer. If you look at the teams I managed in Seattle and even Tampa Bay, we always were up there doing the things we needed to do to win ballgames." I'm not sure if that was true in the Kingdome. If it was true, that was utterly stupid. Hopefully he understands when not to do this (early in games). Piniella later continued "You need pitchers who can command the strike zone, you need defensive players who can catch the ball, and you would think in a ballpark like this that you need a lot of power, but you what you need is athleticism. You catch more baseballs. Singles stay singles, doubles stay doubles." Yeah, this is so a Jim Hendry type comment. I can just see it now, Cesar Izturis manning shortstop and the such.

Jumbo decided to chime in with his thoughts adding "I think he's the right guy to take us to the promised land. That should be our goal. It's up to me to put a better product on the field and get enough players where he can mold them into a championship team." The promised land reminded me of Final Fantasy VII, so I guess we can hope that Uncle Lou is our Aeris, but I think he's going to turn out to be our Sephiroth.

Even Tony Lala decided to venture his opinion "I'm not sure that there's a lot of difference in personality. Dusty's very close to his players, and Lou gets very close to his players. From what I know of both of them, there's a lot more similarity between the two guys than differences." Great. Aren't we so excited if they're the same then what is the whole point of making the move? Just to appease the fan base or the media?

Piniella has also gone on record to say he wants the Cubs to acquire Alex Rodriguez. The two had a great relationship in Seattle, so why not? Rodriguez has gained some weight since moving to third, so his mobility at shortstop would be a concern, and we can keep Aramis Ramirez without giving up talent. I am not sure if the logistics of the deal are going to work out. The Yankees are going to want a frontline starter at the minimum. The Cubs are already in the market for two starting pitchers, and the only sure-bet big name frontline starter the Cubs have the Yankees would want would be Carlos Zambrano. I don't see that deal getting done. Rich Hill doesn't have the name recognition New York would need to justify the deal. The only way this works out is through a complicated three or four team deal similar to the Nomar Garciaparra trade in 2004. The most likely scenario would involve the Florida Marlins and Dontrelle Willis. The only way I'd do that deal with a lot of prospects would be if we kept Hill. There are too many complications for this deal to ever get done.

Finally, Mark Prior visited Dr. James Andrews yesterday. I am no M.D. but I don't like what I've read on it. Apparently the problem with Prior is "looseness." It's what causes his problems and it's also precisely what makes him so good when he's healthy. The always so accurate Mark O'Neal says, "Some people either have a tight shoulder or are labeled as genetically loose. Mark is one of those people who has loose joints -- it's something that's genetically given to him. That looseness is what allows him to generate as much force as he does to be the great pitcher that he has the potential to be and has been." With the diagnosis done by three different people, the consensus is that Prior needs to strengthen his muscles a lot. Shoulder surgery really isn't an option. Prior is supposed to rest it for 4-6 weeks since the end of the season. I can already see it now, Prior will be out in Spring Training. The Cubs should operate as if Mark Prior is not on the team. Anything we get out of him is a bonus. Such a shame, he seems like a great kid too.

Manager Madness

2006-10-13T16:57:00.000-05:00

So far, the Cubs have interviewed current WGN analyst, Bob Brenly; current FOX analyst, Lou Piniella; former Marlins manager, Joe Girardi; current Triple-A Iowa manager, Mike Quade; and current Double-A West Tenn/Tennessee manager, Pat Listach. The Cubs have yet to interview current Padres manager Bruce Bochy, but are expected to do so. None of the choices are overly good, but let's look at them.

Joe Girardi
Experience: 1 year
Record: 78-84
Playoff Appearances: 0
World Series: 0

Joe Girardi was one of those players that everyone knew he would be a big league manager when he played. After retiring in 2003, he became a coach for the Yankees for two seasons before being hired as the Marlin manager for this season. He took a Marlin team of a bunch of kids and had a very good season with them. His style is similar to Joe Torre and he doesn't take any shit. He required the Marlins to have a similar facial hair policy to the Yankees. He demands a lot of respect from his players and gives them respect. These are very important qualities. He is very bright and seems adaptable. Cubs fans are screaming for him to get the job, I think his contributions to the Fish are overrated, but he is a fine manager.

Lou Piniella
Experience: 19 years
Record: 1519-1420
Playoff Appearances: 5
World Series: 1

Lou Piniella is similar to Dusty Baker. He's well known for his antics while arguing with umpires - and that's a great bonus when you aren't very good. He's had a very successful managing career, but his teams have been well-endowed with talent. His style is similar to Baker in that he's a player's manager who is old-fashioned. Listening to him on FOX telecasts during the playoffs haven't made me think too highly of him. He's seems way too old school for me, but that's probably right up Jim Hendry's alley as far as guys he wants.

Mike Quade
Experience: 0 years

Quade has spent the last couple of seasons as Iowa's manager. He's come over from the Athletics organization so he probably has a clue on how walks are advantageous for the team. The Cubs are in no position to hire a first year manager, so I don't expect this to happen, although it seems like he'd be a good choice.

Pat Listach
Experience: 0 years

Listach was West Tenn's manager last season. He's another up and comer who seems to have a clue on the game of baseball. Like Quade, the Cubs cannot afford to hire a first year manager. I don't think Listach is anywhere near the Cubs' radar, but they are required to interview at least one minority manager - even if they have no intention on actually signing him.

Bruce Bochy
Experience: 12 years
Record: 951-975
Playoff Appearances: 4
World Series: 0

Bochy is the second longest tenured manager in baseball today, to Bobby Cox in Atlanta. He's been with the Padres as a coach for fourteen years and has managed the last twelve. He's also led them to four division titles in the twelve years, an impressive feat considering that the Giants, Dodgers and to a certain extent the Diamondbacks have been players with money the entire time. He also seems to have a clue on the walk like Quade. He moved Brian Giles to the second slot in the lineup this season and has discussed leading Giles off next season if they do not retain Dave Roberts. I think Bochy would be an excellent choice and of the guys Hendry has interviewed, he might be the best. I am not so sure the Padres would allow Bochy to go, though Hendry also wanted him in 2003 before falling into the media and fans choice of Dusty Baker.

There are two others that the Cubs have not considered that I would love Jim Hendry to look into. The first being Larry Dierker. Dierker is noted as a guy who follows the stats and had a very good run with the Astros in the 1990s. I can't believe this guy has not gotten a second shot, it's a damn shame. The other guy who would be interesting would be Trey Hillman out of Japan. He's had a very good run as manager of the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters and is leaving the organization after this season.

Carlos Guillen for MVP?

2006-10-08T22:36:00.000-05:00

For awhile, traditionalists have been using the argument that player A might be better than player B, but player B meant more to their team than player A. I and other people have thought this was bad in the past, but I have seen the light. In fact, the actual ballot states that the award should be based on a players value towards his team. I decided to take a systematic approach to that reasoning and devise a simply way to estimate how much a player really meant to their team. The key figure that allows us to do this is a simply concept, diminishing marginal returns (wins) to each run created or saved. Take for example, the pythagorean win-loss formula. Hold the runs allowed portion constant at league average of 797 runs. If you were to graph their expected wins based on runs, you would get this:

It's nearly a straight line, but it isn't. If each run created created exactly .1 runs then we would expect this function to have a constant slope of 1/10. However once we differentiate it, we'll find the marginals wins to each run scored, in simple terms that is how much each run is worth. Graphing the slope would give us this:

As you can see, each run is worth less the more you score. Run number 800 is worth about .09 wins and the 900th run is worth about .08 wins in terms of their expected win loss record. To make this long story short, if you add two similar offensive players one to already good offense and one to a bad offense, the one you add to a bad offense is certainly going to be more important to his team winning. Adding more offense to a team that already has a lot of offense is overkill. There is a similar effect to runs saved for pitchers as well. Now take for example Derek Jeter and Carlos Guillen. The two teams functions are going to be different, their pitching staffs aren't the same so we are going to let that equal to their actual teams pitching. We'll get graphs like so:

Now for actually looking at their contributions. So what would happen if we took Jeter off the Yankees and Guillen off the Tigers. The Yankees are already starting towards the top of their curve because of their better offense and the Tigers are lower, so they will lose more. It's relatively easy to take off their runs by using VORP. Jeter's VORP was 79.2 this season and Guillen's was 67.0. We can easily use the pythag win loss to measure how many wins we would expect to take off their win-loss record because of losing that offensive player. Once you do this we find that Jeter's VORP translated into approximately 6.61 wins for the Yankees and Carlos Guillens VORP translated into approximately 6.62 runs for the Tigers. This is assuming that both players have equal defensive ability. A general consensus on defensive stats for the last few seasons is that Guillen is better there making the seperation a bit larger.

So you are thinking, oh great you had a huge thread just to show that Carlos Guillen was .01 wins better than Derek Jeter? The answer is yes, but there are other things to consider. One of them is of course payroll. No, I am not going to say that Jeter makes more and that's the reason to discredit him, I am going to say that the Yankees would have an easier time replacing Jeter than the Tigers would have replacing Guillen. Guillen's actual value over the player the Tigers replace him with is likely going to be higher than Jeter's value over the replacement the Yankees get (buy). This may seem unfair to Jeter, but it's a simple truth. Finally there's another issue at stake, getting into the playoffs. Take 6.5 wins off the Yankees and they still make the playoffs by a couple games. Take 6.5 wins off the Tigers and they don't make the playoffs. When two players have essentially the same value to their team, all three of these off the field reasons are huge when fully analyzing a players value to his team.

Lastly, there's the whole argument that Jeter did better so he is better and is more valuable. No Yankee fan has taken the time to simply analyze why Derek Jeter has a higher VORP. The main reason is simple - he's on the New York Yankees. No, there is no hidden if/then function in the formula for VORP that gives bonus points for being the Captain of the New York Yankees, but there are some effects being on the Yankees that have given Jeter a clear-cut advantage just because he is a Yankee. VORP consists primarily of three things, plate appearances, marginal lineup value rate (MLVr) of the player in question and a replacement players MLVr at the same position. MLVr is formulated by a function of a players slugging percentage, on-base percentag, batting average and stolen base rate(s) on a teams' runs scored for a season. Replacement level is defined as about the 40th best player at that position (roughly 35 points below average OBP and SLG at the position).

Looking through the lines of the players, you will notice that Carlos Guillen has a better MLVr than Derek Jeter .279 to .268 (runs per game). However, once we extend this to VORPr (essentially playerMLVr - replacementMLVr) is quite a bit higher than Carlos Guillen. We'll remember this later as it has a lot to do with the usage of Jeter compared to Guillen. You will also notice that Derek Jeter has a 715 plate appearances and Carlos Guillen had just 622, a difference of 93. I found this peculiar because Derek Jeter only played a few more innings than Guillen overall and appeared in just one more game. So I dug deeper.

The first bit of information also echoes a point made a lot earlier. There's a second byproduct of the Yankees being a better offensive team, the turn the lineup over more. The Yankees' team OBP is over .360 while the Tigers' is under .330. A significant difference. Each spot in the Yankees lineup batted approximately 22 more times than the corresponding slot in the Tigers' lineup. 22 times may not seem like a lot, but it's going to be worth a couple runs.

The second and bigger bit of information has to do with Jim Leyland's stupidity and Joe Torre's lust. Jeter batted second most of the season and he got 50 or so PA batting third. Despite being the Tigers' best hitter, Leyland stuck Guillen in the five hole most of the season with an additional 70 PA's coming in the seventh spot. It was not the right move. It's a huge reason that Jeter has a higher VORP. Each spot in the batting order gets about 20 more PAs than the spot behind it. The difference in Jeter batting second and Guillen batting fifth is worth about 60 PAs and then there are another 8-10 PAs when Jeter batted third and Guillen batted seventh.

All of these are going to add up to about 90 more PAs for Derek Jeter just because of the teams they were on. If you guys want to seperate that teams you have to adjust. Both players spent about the same amount of time on the field. However, Jeter got 90 PAs because of the Yankees for the most part. Even using their standard VORPr an adjusting this on Guillen, compensating for the Yankee-Jeterness would give him 10 more runs on his VORP. This would bring the difference between the two to 79.2 to 77.0 with Jeter getting a 2.2 run advantage.

Of course for all of the reasons mentioned above, Guillen would probably be more valuable. Also those 2.2 runs would be made up if Guillen was a better defensive shortstop, and the general consensus is that he is. Now, if you will recall I said that Jeter's replacement player was lower than Guillen's. Why is this? It has to do with Jeter being a Yankee and Guillen being a Tiger. Guillen got into 8 games as a 1B. Due to various reasons Leyland was forced to play him there. Joe Torre would never ask Jeter to play 1B even though he had the chance. If you factor out the difference here, Guillen's VORP is going to be over 80, clocking in at 81.5.

So in conclusion, there are a lot of reasons that Carlos Guillen is the League's Most Valuable Player to his team. One of the big ones is that his overall value to his team is higher than Jeter's. Secondly, the only reason Jeter produced more in absolute terms are factors caused by the teams the played on, not the players themself. It's pretty cut and dry, Carlos Guillen is better than Derek Jeter and deserves the MVP over him.

Tim Tebow

2006-10-08T16:13:00.000-05:00

The Florida Gators moved up to the number 2 ranking in the AP Poll after their victory over the LSU Tigers yesterday. They've got Auburn next week and if they go through that game unscathed it'll be hard pressed to rank them behind Ohio State. Especially if they can topple Georgia two weeks later. Tim Tebow rocks my socks. He should rock yours too. He's got a better jump shot than Shaq!

In actual Cubs news, it looks like Joe Torre is out in New York. Uncle Lou Piniella is the rumored top candidate to replace him. I love that. Buster Olney is also reporting that it is highly likely for Alex Rodriguez to be moved this offseason. Let's go Jumbo make your magic work without Carlos Zambrano or Rich Hill.

2007 Payroll

2006-10-05T22:29:00.000-05:00

Woo we all love making money! I do, you do. Anyways, given the what John McDonough has said about the payroll, I guess it is safe to assume it will be around $100,000,000 next season. So we'll use that as a starting point. So the roster:

1. $12,500,000 - Carlos Zambrano
2. $375,000 - Rich Hill
3.
4.
5. $4,000,000 - Mark Prior
6. $5,000,000 - Ryan Dempster
7. $4,000,000 - Bob Howry
8. $3,500,000 - Scott Eyre
9. $375,000 - Michael Wuertz
10. $1,100,000 - Will Ohman
11. $375,000 - David Aardsma

Catchers:
12. $4,000,000 - Michael Barrett
13.

Infielders:
14. $13,000,000 - Derrek Lee
15. $4,150,000 - Cesar Izturis
16. $375,000 - Ronny Cedeno
17. $330,000 - Ryan Theriot
18.
19.
20.

Outfielders:
21. $5,500,000 - Jacque Jones
22. $375,000 - Matt Murton
23. $375,000 - Angel Pagan
24.
25.

The Cubs have three guys who are eligible for arbitration, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano and Will Ohman. Mark Prior does not have much leverage, so I think the max for him will be $4M. I expect Carlos Zambrano to get over $10M in arbitration, but I expect an extension to go into place before it comes to that. I think $12.5M is a safe guess on what the first year will be. Will Ohman will be a second-year arbitration guy, he asked for about $750,000 last season and reached a happy medium. I expect him to get just over a million.

That all totals to roughly $60,000,000 if we take two of the bench spots and give them to rookies, which is almost a lock. One of the open rotation slots (Mark Prior's) will go to someone like Sean Marshall. One of the bench spots will also go to a rookie, most likely backup catching going to Geovany Soto. So that gives the Cubs roughly $40,000,000 to spend on:

2 Starting Pitchers
1 Centerfielder
1 Thirdbaseman
3 Bench Players

And that's not the only likely part. The Cubs will almost certainly be shelling out about $5,000,000 to Kerry Wood overall if they resign him to a incentive-laden deal. The Cubs will likely resign Aramis Ramirez to some sort of deal that will rake in Derrek Lee type money, so that's going to be about $18,000,000 between the two of them. So we have roughly $22,000,000 to spend between:

2 Starting Pitchers
1 Centerfielder
2 Infielders

I am also assuming the Cubs are going to carry 12 pitchers now. That just seems probably to me. So who is possible with that money? Jim McDoughnut is a marketing guru, so maybe he will understand the marketing potential in Japan via Daisuke Matsuzaka but I don't see it happening. I think one of the top free agents on Jim Hendry's list will be Ray Durham. He can fill our leadoff void and play second base. He's going to command around $6,000,000. The one other bench spot can be signed with a mil or less. That leaves us with just $15,000,000 to spend on two starters and a centerfielder. With Felix Pie nearly ready the Cubs can afford to go stopgapping in centerfield with a Kenny Lofton or Dave Roberts costing about $3,000,000. So now we have to go with 2 rotation spots with about $12,000,000 to spend. That's not pretty. In a dream world we could squeeze Jason Schmidt in for that, and then pick a journeyman starter. However, in our sense I think two guys I would like and could sign for that would be Ted Lilly and Gil Meche. They are not great, but are two guys with strong strikeout rates in the American League. They have their control issues, but those can be minimized in a move to the National League. Both guys could thrive.

Doing what I did with out forty-mil we'll run out the following:

1. Ray Durham, 2B
2. Kenny Lofton, CF
3. Derrek Lee, 1B
4. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
5. Michael Barrett, C
6. Jacque Jones, RF
7. Matt Murton, LF
8. Cesar Izturis, SS

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Rich Hill
3. Ted Lilly
4. Gil Meche
5. Sean Marshall/Mark Prior/Angel Guzman

If that team is healthy outside of Mark Prior they can win 85 game or so, with Mark Prior pushing them into the 90s. It's not great, but it maxes out what we can do right now. The real sticking point was the deal trading Greg Maddux for Cesar Izturis instead of propects. Izturis is just a clone of two guys we already had, Ronny Cedeno and Neifi Perez. He's making over $4 million too! If we had that monay back we could sign Jason Schmidt and a decent veteran, now we can't. Good going Jumbo.

Sean Rodriguez

2006-10-05T18:24:00.000-05:00

Entering the 2003 MLB Draft, Sean Rodriguez was a shortstop coming out of Braddock High School in Florida. He was the 14th rated prospect coming out of a very deep and talented Florida draft class and was ranked 84th overall. He was viewed as a guy who had the arm, range and hands to play shortstop, but scouts that he might wind up at second or behind the dish. He was seen as a guy with excellent linedrive swing and outstanding instincts and makeup. He also had excellent pedigree, his dad is a minor league manager and his brother is in the minors. He was slated as a third-to-fifth round draft pick and that came true as the Anaheim Angels took him with their 3rd round pitck (90th overall).

He signed quickly for $400,000 and made his debut in the Arizona Summer League. He got in 54 games hitting .269/.332/.380 flashing good extra base power and swiping 11 bases. He only knocked 2 homers, and struck out 37 times to just 14 walks. Something he needed to work on at the time. He was overshadowed by Brandon Wood on the team, starting out at third before moving to shortstop once Wood was promoted. He was rated the 18th best prospect in the league. He was not in the Angels top 10, which was no surprise as they had a very deep system at the time. The rumor still was that he might have been great behind the dish, but that never happened.

Going into 2004 the Angels shipped him up to fullseason Low A Cedar Rapids to start the season. Because of Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood in the middle infield, he split time between centerfield and thirdbase. The Angels still thought he would stick at short, but they didn't have a spot for him. He struggled through the beginning of the season hitting .250/.333/.393 in just under 200 ABs. He showed gap power, but struck out 54 times and only walked 18. Once shortseason Provo started up in June they moved him down (where he was still underaged to the league) so he could play short. He flatout raked for 64 games hitting .338/.486/.569 with 51 walks and 62 strikeouts. He really made strides with the walk rate, a good sign for him. To go with the 51 walks he was hit 15 times. Overall he had about 440 ABs and hit 14 homers, stole 23 bases with 69 walks. Baseball America didn't rank him in the MWL top 20, but he was third in the Pioneer League ahead of Billy Butler and Scott Elbert. They commended his patience at the plate and advanced approach. He was the league's MVP and was thought to be moved behind the plate in the instructional league.

That move never happened, and he stayed in the middle infield. He was just out of their Top 10 that year and started back at Low A Cedar Rapids as a 20 year old in 2005 (mainly to Kendrick and Wood). He didn'thit for the guady average he showed in Provo, but he hit a solid .250/.371/.422 overall with 14 homer and 29 doubles. He also stole 27 bases and walked 78 times in 124 games. He showed his great patience, but struck out a bit. Still it was a solid season, but BA took the toolsy nature and didn't think much of him. They slapped the potential utility label on him. He was close to the top 20 in the league, but didn't make that or the Angels top 10. He was quietly becoming the underrated saber prospect. BA said he had the best discipline in the system, and said he had tools.

This year they moved him up to the California League. It's an offensive enironment and he torched the league. Yes, he did hit 16 of his 24 homers at home - but his park plays as a below league average home run park, so what gives? I doubt there's much in the splits. He hit .302/.379/.548 overall in the league with 24 homers. He didn't have the godly walk rate, 47:447 ABs and 122 strikeouts. However, to silence the critics he had an impressive final month in double a hitting .354/.462/.662 with 5 homers in 65 AB with 11 BB and 18 Ks. Granted his home park there is a home run park, but even in the small sample he showed he could hang in Double A. Overall a shortstop hitting 29 homers with 60 walks would get a lot of publicity, but not Rodriguez. They once again slapped the utility tag on him as they ranked him the 12th prospect in the league. Again a lot of their ranking was that they didn't think he could stick at shortstop. He's probably going to slot somewhere in the Angel Top 10 this year, but where is anyones guess.

In Sean Rodriguez we have a guy saber guys are going to love. Yes he's going to strikeout a lot and probably won't hit over .280 much, but he's going to take his fair share of walks, totalling between 50 and 80 a season one would think to go with 10-20 HBPs. That's good for .350 or so OBP. He also flashes average power hitting 15-20 home runs power. That's excellent production out of a shortstop with serviceble but below average defense. It's okay for centerfielder or secondbaseman as well. If he moves to third, it's probably league average at the position. Regardless his bat is good enough he can hit at any position except first and leftfield. BA does not properly value the walk, and it obviously affects Rodriguez. Don't get me wrong, I don't think he's the second coming of Carlos Guillen, but I expect he's good enough to be a regular in the majors. He could have been special if they moved him to catcher...

He's gone.

2006-10-02T22:44:00.000-05:00

And with that, Dusty Baker is no longer the manager of the Chicago Cubs. It couldn't have come quicker. I dunno how good this will be, we won't know until we know the replacement.

Two down one to go.

And that's that.

2006-10-01T19:30:00.000-05:00

With today's victory the 2006 season is in the books, and it couldn't have come quicker. The Cubs finished with the third worst record in baseball at 66-96. That would be the Cubs second worst record in the last 25 years. Yeah, this season was bad even for Cubs' standards. What made it so bad is that the Cubs expected to win around 80-85 games which would have been enough to make the playoffs. When you're going bad, you're going bad. The good news is that the last two times the Cubs lost as many as they did this season, they won the division within four years.

Oh well, the general consensus is that Dusty Baker's tenure of field manager is coming to an end tomorrow morning when he meets with Jim Hendry. Baker's in game managing rivals the worst in baseball, but as a coach I think he's probably very good. Maybe one day Cubs' management will realize that the managers job isn't to teach. The Boston Herald is reporting that the Cubs have Terry Francona on their list of potential succesors to Baker. To me the Cubs would be replacing Dusty Baker with Dusty Baker. I'm sure it is an upgrade, but more of a lateral move than I would like the Cubs to make at this point. As of right now, I guess the four most likely managers for the Cubs are: Terry Francona, Bob Brenly, Fredi Gonzalez and Joe Girardi.

In other Cubs management news, it's the end of an era in Chicago. Andy MacPhail has resigned as president and CEO. MacPhail has been near the top of the Cubs management chain since 1994, and is rumored to be taking over for Bud Selig. Again, who knows how much of an effect this move will have on the Cubs. The last few seasons from the outside it looks like the Cubs have had several clashes between MacPhail and Hendry on who to bring in. If anything this should lead to more of a focused plan. I think Jim Hendry - Andy MacPhail - Dusty Baker = The GM we all thought Hendry was a couple years ago.

In actual potential on the field news, the Cubs are apparently interested in entering the Daisuke Matsuzaka sweepstakes. Whether or not this is a "Token Offer" just to keep the media off the Cubs' back similar to the offers to Carlos Beltran remains to be seen. One thing to keep in mind is that Matsuzaka's agent is Scott Boras, who the Cubs are one of the few teams to have good relations with. I still don't see the Cubs outbidding the Yankees and Mariners. Mariners' de facto owner Hiroshi Yamauchi and Nintendo figure to bid a blank check on Matsuzaka similar to what they did for Ichiro Suzuki in 2000.

Daric Barton

2006-09-27T00:14:00.000-05:00

Daric Barton started out as a catcher coming out of Southern California, a national hotbed of high school baseball talent. He was rated the 72nd best prospect in the draft by Baseball America. He was rated the second-best pure hitter from the high school ranks, but did not rnak in the top five for power nor the top three for strike-zone judgement. In retrospect, the plate discipline should have been a strength. The problem was not that he could not hit. He had everything that you would want in a hitter, but his defensive skills behind the plate weren't very good. He was a young draftee, just seventeen when he signed. The St. Louis Cardinals took him with the 28th overall pick in the draft and bought him out of his Cal-State Fullerton commitment for $1,000,000.

Barton signed early enough to appear for Johnson City in the Appy League. He showed his considerable hitting ability, hitting .294/.420/.424 in 209 PAs. The power wasn't very good, he homered four times and doubled ten times. However he had a great walk rate and did not strike out too much, a 37:48 ratio. It would be the last time he's had more K's than BB's any level. He remained behind the dish though, and prompted Baseball America to rate him as the fifth best prospect in the league. His defense was good enough to keep his projection behind the plate. His power and hitting ability played well and his discipline was tremendous. He did enough to debut at #8 for the Cardinals top 10.

For his first full season the Cardinals sent Barton to Low A Peoria. He was limited to just 90 games due to injuries, but he continued to show a plus bat as he hit .313/.445/.511 hitting 13 homers and 23 doubles. He drew 69 walks compared to just 44 strikeouts. All-in-all a great debut for any prospect. He was rated the #2 prospect in the league, behind Brian Dopirak. Various scouts called him the best pure hitter in the minor leagues. Baseball America also noted while he was a count worker, he was not a passive hitter. This is because despite the 100 BB potential, he's never going to strikeout more than 60 or so times a season. Their were still doubts about his catching ability. Earlier in his career his arm rated as above average, now it was not. He wasn't athletic enough to move elsewhere besides 1B, so he gets a bit of a shaft similar to the Royals' Billy Butler.

On December 18th, 2004 Billy Beane made one of the best trades of his career. He shipped out overrated pitcher Mark Mulder to the Cardinals for Barton, Dan Haren and Kiko Calero. It's no shock that Beane has a lustful attraction to Barton. By this time, on-base percentage had become quite expensive on the open free agent market. Beane then had to get his on-base driven players through trades. Barton's plate discipline is plus-plus, so it was a no-brainer. Dan Haren and Kiko Calero were throw-ins. Haren's developed into a top 10 American League pitcher. Mark Mulder has sucked. Hard. Barton was rated the best prospect in the Oakland organization. He was also rated the 32nd best prosect in the minor leagues.

The A's sent Barton to High A Stockton of the California League. They also moved him to first base and designated hitter full-time. Barton went off hitting .318/.438/.469 in 79 games. He also drew 62 walks compared to 49 strikeouts. THe 20 year old got a July promotion to AA Midland. He nearly hit identical. He jacked 5 homers with 20 2B in route to a .316/.410/.491 line with 35 walks compared to 30 strike outs. Barton was eligible to be ranked in both the Texas League and the California league. He ranked #3 and #6 respectively. Once again he was the best prospect in the A's organization and the #28 prospect in baseball. However, he no longer caught. It's quite a bit to move from a catcher all the way down to first base.

For the 2006 season Barton was shipped to AAA as a 21 year old. For the first time in his career Barton has faced quite a bit of adversity. He only got into 43 games and hit a modest .259/.389/.395. The walks and discipline were still there. His power was about the same it had been at other stops, he just got a few fewer singles. However in late May he hyperextended his elbow and eventually it was diagnosed as a fracture. He missed the rest of the season. He had a great April and struggled in May. It was probably just a bad hot streak for a couple weeks that weighted highly in his final line due to the limited sample size. I'm not worried about this myself. Especially when you consider that his discipline remained there. God forbid a 21 year old having an OBP of .389 in Triple A. Presuming he qualifies Barton is going to be one of the top prospects ranked in the Pacific Coast League. He's probably going to fall a bit in the overall rankings. Not because of what he did, but what others did. He's probably around 40 in the BA list. He'll be higher in the Baseball Prospectus rankings. Different tastes.

So in Barton we have a 1B/DH. He hits for a high average and draws gobs of walks. He's capable of hitting .300/.420 consistently at the major league level. However his power has not developed. It's quite a debated question. His short compact stroke and strength allow him to have 25-30 home run power, but it hasn't played. Due to this some people think it's more in the range of 15-20 homers. Either way he projects to have 40-50 doubles a season. His pitch recognition is fine. There are no holes in this part of his bat. He's a lefty who hits leftys well. He's always hit them as well as righties in the minors. He's not a pull hitter. Some people feel that his lack of power production comes from him preffering to hit the ball to the opposite field - something he's great at. Perhaps as he matures, his power will develop. Either way, bottom line he's going to hit .300/.420/.480 with good consistency. If his power develops at all, he's going to be VERY good. Who is his best comparison? Probably at the minimum a Sean Casey type hitter with a lot more walks. The best comparison might just be a left-handed Edgar Martinez. Especially if his power develops.

Tennessee Smokies Baseball!

2006-09-21T23:45:00.000-05:00

The Chicago Cubs have announced that they are no longer affiliated with the West Tenn Diamondjaxx and are now affiliated with the Tennessee Smokies. This will end a 9 years affiliation for the Cubs. Before that they were affiliated with the Orlando Rays. The Cubs will still be in the Southern League for the 28th consecutive season. In 2006 the Diamondjaxx drew less than 100,000 fans the first team to do so in the league in five years. The Smokies on the other hand drew over 250,000 and routinely rank among the attendance leaders in the Southern League. This move will allow more exposure for the Cubs prospects and it is a great move in my opinion. All of the other Cubs' affiliates will remain the same.

2006 Arizona Summer League

2006-09-20T22:54:00.000-05:00

Rk	Mine	Baseball America
1.	Jeremy Jeffress, rhp, Brewers	Hank Conger, c, Angels
2.	Hank Conger, c, Angels	Jeremy Jeffress, rhp, Brewers
3.	Cedric Hunter, of, Padres	Cedric Hunter, of, Padres
4.	Alex Liddi, 3b, Mariners	Marcus Lemon, ss, Rangers
5.	Sharloon Schoop, ss, Giants	Brent Fisher, lhp, Royals
6.	Jake Brigham, rhp, Rangers	Matt Sweeney, 3b/1b, Angels
7.	Marcus Lemon, ss, Rangers	Sharlon Schoop, ss, Giants
8.	Jose Ceda, rhp, Cubs	Kyler Burke, of, Padres
9.	Brent Fisher, lhp, Royals	Jason Taylor, 3b, Royals
10.	Matt Sweeney, 3b/1b, Angels	Vladimir Veras, rhp, Angels
11.	Carlos Peguero, of, Mariners	Brent Brewer, ss, Brewers
12.	Gerardo Avila, 1b, Mariners	Gerardo Avila, 1b, Mariners
13.	Chris Huseby, rhp, Cubs	Luis Durango, of, Padres
14.	Rolando Pascual, rhp, Brewers	Jose Ceda, lhp, Cubs
15.	Wily Peralta, rhp, Brewers	Manuel Cabez, rhp, Giants
16.	Brent Brewer, ss, Brewers	Derrick Robinson, of, Royals
17.	Doug Salinas, rhp Mariners	Nick Van Stratten, of, Royals
18.	Kyler Burke, of, Padres	Carlos Peguero, of, Mariners
19.	Luis Durango, of, Padres	Warner Madrigal, rhp, Angels
20.	Henry Rodriguez, rhp, A's	Felix Carrasco, 3b, Padres

All in all I was happy with the results I got. In the chat, John Manuel said that Chris Huseby's projectable power arm would have ranked in the Top 10 and warranted the bonus that the Cubs gave him. He was a few innings short from qualifying. I thought that Alex Liddi was a dead lock for the lest, apparently I was misinformed. Manuel said he was definitely within the running. I don't like the omission, but that's life. I also think the Derrick Robinson and Nick Van Stratten ratings are the toolsy speed guys BA tends to overrate. That's also one of the reasons that Luis Durango ranked higher than mine did. The only guy I think I might have missed a lot on was Jake Brigham, but he had to have been close unless he lost some velocity or his stuff wasn't good. Tomorrow it is going to be the Gulf Coast League, and you can read my report on that here. I can tell you right now that I underrated guys like Gorkys Hernandez, Carlos Fernandez-Oliva and Preston Manningly. Friday should be the Appalachian League unless they redo the order or push it back until next week.

Troy Tulowitzki

2006-09-20T21:46:00.000-05:00

Troy Tulowitzki graduated from high school in 2002 and was a standout pitcher and shortstop at Fremont HS. He went an impressive 12-1 on the mound his junior season and hit .519 as a senior. He was never a good draft prospect out of high school and wasn't one of the top 110 players in the state of California. He chose to attend Long Beach State University, who just had Bobby Crosby in their line of standout first round infielders.

LBSU plays in an extreme pitchers park where home runs are a rarity. He didn't have a great year with the bat as a freshman hitting .270/.307/.408 in 210 PAs. He hit five home runs, but only drew 9 walks. However he was noted for solid defensive play at the position. He was named second team Big West SS behind Randy Blood. He was also named to the Freshman All-American team by Collegiate Baseball.

A strong sophomore season in 2004 vaulted Tulowitzki onto draft radars. He hit .317/.410/.491 with 7 homers and improved his walk rate sigificantly. He also flashed his solid glove and was named first team All-Big West and honorable mention nationally. His status vaulted as he took the starting SS job away from Tyler Greene in the summer for Team USA. He led the team in homers hitting .299/.369/.519 with four home runs in 20 starts.

The accolades started to pile up the month before his junior season. He was named to the preseason first Team Alamerican by NCBWA, 2nd team by Baseball America (behind Greene) and second team by Collegiate Baseball. He had a huge season hitting .349/.431/.599 for LBSU, quite impressive for the park. Going into the draft he had the best defensive arm and glove for a college shortstop. He was also the third best athlete and one of the premier five tool talents. He was named the number four prospect in the draft class and number one from California. He was a physical player who played better defense than Crosby, but hit for similar power and sprays his power better. He has a good arm, quick feet and was as advanced as a shortstop can get. All of his tools graded out above average. He projected as a good defensive SS who could hit 25-30 home runs a year. His makeup and work ethic were also plauded.

The Colorado Rockies picked him up with the 7th pick in the draft. He signed quickly and the Rockies spent no time sending him outright to High A Modesto. He got into 22 games for the Nuts and hit an okay .266/.343/.457 with 4 homers before getting hurt. He did draw nine walks in 105 PAs, but he struck out. Still his raw tools were excellent and 22 games after a long grueling college season is too short of a sample size. He did not qualify for the California League top 20, but would have been very high in a league stucked with uber-prospects. He was named the Rockies' number two prospect as he showed good defense and above average powers. He ended up becoming the #25 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America.

The Rockies sent Tulowitzki to Double-A Tulsa of the Texas Leaue this season. He hit .291/.370/.473 in 103 games with 13 homers and 46 walks. He showed decent power and good on base skills. The only concern is his splits is that Tulsa is a home run friendly park and 10 of the 13 came there, but he had a higher flyball and linedrive percentage at home, so it wasn't all park. He simply hit better there, componently. He got a late promotion to Colorado and has struggled in limited action. He's hit .254/.347/.317 in 75 PAs with 17 strikeouts. He has drawn nine walks, so he's working the count a bit. He has played well the last few days, but sample size abroad.

All in all we have a shortstop who projects as an above average offensive performer with good power and offensive skills. Coors Field factored out, he's got the kind of bat who could hit .300/.350/.475 as a rough guess, with his big years being considerably higher. He combines that with an above average arm and range at shortstop. He's also an athletic guy who has quick feet and good hands. He's arguably one of baseball's top 10 prospects and will find himself at the top of the Rockies' system rankings and willl find himself was one of the top 3 prospects in a loaded Texas League.

Hunter Pence

2006-09-19T23:57:00.000-05:00

As a high school senior, Hunter Pence was undrafted and went to Texarkana Community College in Texas. As a frehman he hit .395 with 12 home runs and 33 stolen bases. Because he wasn't under control by any major league teams as a draft and follow he was eligible again the next season. He wasn't one of the top fifty Juco prospects in the 2002 draft by BA, and was drafted by the Brewers in the 40th round. He declined to sign and enrolled in the University of Texas at Arlington. Here he continued to demonstrate his superb hitting ability as .347/.406/.561 with 8 homers his sophomore year and .395/.441/.616 his junior season. He showed pretty good developing power and a good approach at the plate. Pence was eligible again for the 2004 draft after his junior season. He was not regarded as a top five round talent by Baseball America and was ranked as the #26 draft prospect in Texas and was projected to go in rounds 6-10. They said that Pence was a good hitter with good power and plate coverage, but his arm strength limited him to left field. He also had a unique swing, something that BA would hang over his head for awhile. Houston did not have a first round pick that year, and they used the 64th pick in the draft to nab Pence. It seemed like an overdraft at the time but it has worked out. Astros scouting director David Lackey defended the pick saying, "He's a plus runner, has plus power, but his bat has a ways to go." He did concede that his defense was limited to left.

The Astros are notorious for their slow advancement rate of their prospects, and Pence was no different. He signed rather quickly and was assigned to Tri City of the New York Penn League. He hit .296/.369/.518 with 8 homers in 199 ABs. He had a good debut, but was one of the oldest players in the league. Baseball America named Pence the 13th best prospect in the league, saying his power played well and had good plate discipline, but of course he's limited to left field. Baseball America then ranked him as the 10th prospect in the Astros' system. They said that he had quick hands, plus raw power and good control of the strike zone. His swing of course was not pretty. All in all they said he had a bat for left field, and liked him quite a bit.

The Astros sent the 22 year old to Low A Lexington to start 2005. In 200 ABs he hit 25 homers hitting .338 overall slugging around .650. He got a late season promotion to High A Salem hitting .305 with only 6 homers in 151 AB. He slugged under .500. Pence was eligible for the Sally League and Carolina League top 20s. He ranked 15th in the Sally League despite his performane. This was due to his old age for the league, and a very stacked league. They said he had arguably the most raw power in the leaugue and one of the best pure hitting prospects in the league. However BA and some scouts balked at his swing and it was one of the reasons he was ranked so low. For the Carolina League he ranked 18th where once again they plauded his power but his unorthodox swing concerned them. Still, BA ranked him as the 6th best prospect in the Astros system and left him off their Top 100 prospects.

Pence spent the entire 2006 season at Double A Corpus Christi in the Texas League. He hit .283/.357/.533 in 136 games hitting 28 homers, 8 triples and 31 doubles. He also swiped 17 bases. His performance was actually better than that. Corpus Christi's home park plays like a very good pitcher's park, so he was affected there. That raw line translated into a .304 EqA for the league. The splits also bear that out for him. He hit .259/.343/.458 with 10 homers at home and .305/.371/.603 with 18 homers on the road. I should note that the homer rate on the road doesn't mean he's a 36 homer guy. 21.4% of his contacts at home were outfield flyballs and 30.4% were on the road. He should hit for more power because of this, of course it is still a factor. His HR/F rate was 5.0% higher on the road so if you adjust that to home, 12 homers at home, so he's more like a 30 home run hitter. Of course his average and such were also affected by the park.

Overall his tools are pretty good. He does have a good bat who looks to me like a guy who can hit .280/.350 with 25 homers a year. He doesn't have the jaw dropping power to hit 35-40 homers a season, nor does he have the discipline to walk 90 times a year and have an OBP over .400. He doesn't strikeout too much, but it's more because of his approach than his swing. He's a fairly agressive hitter who loves to hit fastballs. The concern in the past was that advanced pitchers would take advantage of the odd hitch in his swing and burn him, but that has not happened yet and if it did not happen in AA, it probably won't happent. However if he's going to make it, it's going to be his bat that carries him. As noted above he's a terrible defensive player. He's got decent speed but runs terrible routs and has a lousy arm. He's a capable hitter overall, but I don't see him developing into an elite leftfielder because he won't have the great on base percentages or the great power, although Pence's pull power plays well at Minute Maid Park. He's a great fit for the home park.

Pence is going to find himself near the top of the Houston Astros' prospect list, probably between 2-4. He's going to find himself somewhere in the middle of most top 100s, 40-60 and should find himself near the top of the Texas League rankings.

Electric Performances

2006-09-17T21:55:00.000-05:00

In the last two days the Cubs have had two of their best pitching performances of the season in back-to-back games. The Reds have to be wondering what hit them. Yesterday the man of the day was young Rich Hill who threw the first complete game shutout of his career and struck out ten batters. Rich has been unbelievable since the first of August and has struck out double digits in two of his last three outings. I can't wait to see what he does in his last three! I am really excited about him.

I really did not want the Cubs to activate Carlos Zambrano for three garbage starts at the end of the seaosn, but obviously his back was fine. He was throwing his fastball in the mid 90s at times and threw 7 shutout innings while hitting his fifth home run of the season.

Carlos Gonzalez

2006-09-15T18:30:00.000-05:00

Carlos Gonzalez was signed by the Arizona Diamondbacks out of Venezuela in 2002 as 16 year old. He was a solid prospect at the time, a 16 year old who oozed of power tools. The Diamondbacks thought high enough of him to send them to the Pioneer league as a 17 year old. Given his age, he hit a respectable .268/.308/.404 in 275 at bats with six home runs. The scouts in the league compared him to a young Bobby Abreu with more present power. He was the youngest okayer in the league showing soid defense and good arm and eletric potential with the bat. This was your classic Baseball America tools before stats before Double A type ranking. At the time he was a toolsy and an interest prospect but he was far from making cracking the top 10 of the Diamondbacks' farm system. My guess is he would have been around 25-30. Still all things considered - he was one to watch at the time.

In 2004 they sent the 18 year old to South Bend of the Midwest League where he struggled a bit in 51 ABs. He broke his hand after 14 games and was sent down to short-season Yakima of the Northwest League to strut his stuff. He showed a bit of improvement overall but ended with a similar line with about 20 points of BA added to his OBP and SLG to hit .273/.327/.427. Overall he hit .274 with 10 HRs, 19 2B, 23 walks and 83 strikeouts. His discipline was becoming a concern as he had walked 39 times in just over 650 PAs compared to over 140 strikeouts. Still he was a ways off and he his pure tools were among the best in the minors. Baseball America ranked him the third best prospect in the league. He showed plus power, and a very good throwing arm. His biggest problem with the bat was his discpline, although he adjusted in the second half of the season and became much better at hitting breaking balls. He was still not ranked in the Diamondbacks' top 10 prospects, and was near the bottom of the top 20. He had great tools, but his tools never equated into production and he was four years away from the majors, at best.

2005 was a breakout season for Gonzalez. He torched the Midwest League for 18 homers and a .307/.371/.489 line as a 19 year old. He also improved his plate discipline considerably striking out 'only' 86 times and drawing 48 walks. He flashed his usual plus power potential and his approach at the plate continued to blossom. His only not above average tool is his speed, but he made up for it with good routes and reaction in right field. Of course his arm was plus. One scout said he's like Carlos Beltran when Betran is good. He's not the runner that Beltran is but he has a much better bat at this stage. He was rated the number 1 prospect in the league, ahead of notables including Homer Bailey. He also made his debut in the Diamondbacks top 10 ranking number four - an impressive number four at that. One scout said he was the best prospect he's seen in the league since Miguel Cabrera. Overall he was ranked the #32 prospect in all of baseball a very lofty rating for a teenager.

Gonzalez started 2006 in the California League playing in the offensive haven known as Lancaster. Lancaster is a park that is plus everything for the league. Roughly +20% park factors in runs, hits, walks and -20% in strikeouts. It's HR park factor is an astronomical +64%. He hit .300/.356/.563 overall in the Cali league. He drew 30 walks with 21 home runs and struck out 104 times. He got a late season promotion to Tennessee of the Southern League and struggled mighly, though he hit 2 home runs and kept his walk rate and strike out rates fine, so I don't have too much concern there. Not only that, but he got hit in the kneck with a pitch right before getting called up.

So overall in Gonzalez we have an average defensive rightfielder with a plus arm. He projects to be able to hit 30 home runs at the major league level while maintaining a .300 batting average. His walk rates have fluctuated throughout his career and his strike out rate could be a concern down the road. That leads me to believe he can be a guy who hits roughly .300/.350/.550 in his prime, a few years above and down of course. That sort of production would be very good out of a right fielder. Of course he is just 20 so he could improve his discipline and power potenial considerably, but there are concerns. Especially this season as noted the California League is a hitter friendly league and Lancaster might be the most hitter friendly environment in the league. The splits show this considerably. He hit a whopping .364/.416/.697 at Lancaster and hit a woeful .239/.295/.433 on the road. He had almost the exact same amount of plate appearances in both, but hit 15 of his 21 homers at home. His groundball, linedrive and flyball rates where almost identical too. He had a GB% of 37% on the road, and at home it was 38%. His line drive percentage splits were about the same too - 17% and 15% respectively. All in all it's hard to see how much of it was him and how much was park.

It's still way too early in his career to look at splits to right him off, but it certainly is something worth mentioning. He's still an elite outfield propect and will find himself in most top 25 prospect lists this offseason and is probably the second best prospect in the Diamondbacks system behind Justin Upton.

Japanese Baseball

2006-09-14T19:29:00.000-05:00

I am a fan of just about every form of baseball. I love college baseball, I love the minors, I love the majors and I love the high school game. So it follows that I probably love the Japanese leagues. This is true. My fascination is a little extreme, as I've tried to find out the EqA's of every player in the league. Of course the exact formula's aren't realesed but what is released is very very close and the park factors are not released exactly either. Still, I've attempted to do them. To do this the first thing I needed were the actual stats from NBP. Luckily, Sergei Borisov's excellent site had just about everything I needed. Secondly I needed park factors for each team, I did this using the scores from the last three years. I then calculated the park factor the same way that Baseball-Reference calculate's their's. And here they are:

.8676 Yomiuri Giants
.8727 Chunichi Dragons
.8861 Fukuoka Softbank Hawks
.8900 Chiba Lotte Marines
.9299 Hanshin Tigers
.9864 Seibu Lions
.9870 Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters
1.0002 Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles
1.0158 Orix Buffaloes
1.1193 Yokohama BayStars
1.1309 Hiroshima Toyo Carp
1.1694 Tokyo Yakult Swallows

These aren't exactly what I had expected. The Tokyo Dome is supposed to be a hitters park, but the Giants have the lowest run factor. There are a few tough things here that have to be noted. First of all most of the teams play 10-15 'home' games at small sites across the country. These fields range from high school fields to everything. So this is probably a factor in some of the park factors. Secondly, The Golden Eagles have existed for just two years, so their factor is a two year park factor. Finally, the Orix BlueWave and the Osaka Kintetsu Buffaloes merged after 2004. The new team, the Orix Buffaloes play half of their home games at the Osaka Dome and half of them at Skymark Stadium. So I split averaged the two factors from 2004 and included as one park factor.

After I got this I was ready to calculate their EqA's. I used the raw EqA formula found at Baseball Prospectus' site and the way I used the run factor was when I had to calculate the average equivalent runs in the set plate appearances, I just mutiplied half of the runs time the park factor because only half of the games are played there. And then I just did what was normal and this would be the Top 20:

.350 Kosuke Fukudome, Dragons
.335 Seung-Yeop Lee, Giants
.331 Nobuhiko Matsunaka, Hawks
.325 Tyrone Woods, Dragons
.322 Michihiro Ogasawara, Fighters
.318 Alex Cabrera, Lions
.310 Tomoaki Kanemoto, Tigers
.309 Alex Fernandez, Eagles
.304 Kazuhiro Wada, Lions
.303 Hiroyuki Nakajima, Lions

Four of the players were in Japan's WBC starting lineup. Seung-Yeop Lee was the big man in South Korea's and Alex Cabrera was supposed to be on Venezuela's but was not. Kosuke Fukudome has been one of the best players in Japan for awhile now. In 2001 it was calculated that the Japan to US factor was between .92 and .93 which would place Fukudome's EqA in the .320-.325 range - roughly equivalent to Derek Jeter. His reputation is that he's an excellent defensive centerfielder as well, so I guess the best comparison is probably Grady Sizemore. You can make a case for Fukudome being the best centerfielder on the planet if you wanted. He's eligible to come stateside after 2007, and has expressed he is interested in the past.

Lee's a free agent after the season and has had a monster season this year. He could generate quite the interest from some American League teams who are looking for a hybrid designated hitter first baseman. He has taken his excellent WBC performance and increased his stock so much. However I am not sure how much of an impact he will make. I could see him signing with the Angels who need offense no matter what. He could also wind up in Los Angeles or Seattle. I could even see Billy Beane getting in the bidding if he is priced low enough.

Another guy who is coming over soon is Akinori Iwamura. Iwamura is not listed in the top 10 as he currently sits 13th with a .300 EqA. He's a third basemen with good power and good defense. I am not sure if his game well translate near the .925 level as he strikes out a lot and does not have a lot of patience. Those are the things that burned Kaz Matsui. Still the Swallows are posting him after the season and a MLB comparison for him might be a Russell Branyan lite. He has power but could pile on the strikeouts. Remember these equivalent averages do not factor in position scarcity. Hiroyuki Nakajima would get a huge bonus here as would #18 Tsuyoshi Nishioka as they are shortstops - and in Nishioka's case masterful defensively.

Miller Time

2006-09-14T19:13:00.000-05:00

The Cubs finally won a series today. Finally, right? Oh well we lost some ground in the race for David Price, but I guess this is good. Wade Miller started and gave up a two-run homer to Marlon Anderson. It was the only hit the thirty year old gave up. Miller pitched five solid innings allowing the one hit, two runs with three strikeouts and three walks. Wade still struggled with his command, but overall I thought he looked very good. His velocity sat around 89 most of the game, so I guess this is good. He is slowly but surely gaining velocity. With a lot of workouts in the offseason, Miller could get to his pre-surgery velocity which routinely got into the mid 90s.

The Dodgers started rookie southpaw Hong-Chih Kuo and he did well giving up a couple of runs with 6 strikeouts in 6 innings of work. However in the seventh they turned to Brett Tomko who continued to struggle. Tomko gave up four runs, the big blow being a game-winning three run homer to Aramis Ramirez. Carlos Marmol struggled in relief, but the rest of the bullpen was excellent. Michael Wuertz, Scott Eyre, Bob Howry and Will Ohman were excellent. The big shock of the late innings was that Howry closed out the game with the one run lead. It was Howry's fifth save on the season. Every Cub starter got at least one hit. Ryan Theriot, Juan Pierre and Ramirez tallied two a piece. Theriot did leave the game in the sixth due to an injury.

Billy Butler

2006-09-14T01:22:00.000-05:00

With the fourteenth pick in the 2004 draft, the Kansas City Royals passed on Stephen Drew and nabbed high school slugger, Billy Butler, a thirdbaseman at the time. Coming out of Florida, Butler was pretty advanced for a prep hitter, but Baseball America ranked him as the 61st prospect in the draft, and 7th out of Florida. Still for signability reasons and financial reasons the Royals nabbed Butler. At the time he ha draw plus loft power with quick hands and a good approach. Despite the low ranking, his power was rated the best out of the high school ranks. Butler signed quickly and was sent out to Idaho Falls of the Pioneer League.

He hasn't stopped hitting since. In 260 AB, he tallied 22 doubles, 10 homers and 3 triples. He also displayed and excellent ability to work the count, amassing 57 walks in just over 300 PAs. He only struck out 63 times, and all of this in a league that included a lot of advanced college hitters and pitchers. Idaho isn't the lowest level of the Royals farm system. Over all his line was a very impressive .373/.488/.596 line as an 18 year old. BA ranked him the fourth best prospect in the league, and noted that he had an unorthodox swing, but had a knack for loft power and making solid contact consistently. Of course the big concern and reason he was not higher is that he was a terrible defensive thirdbasemen and was thought to have to move to first eventually. They also said he had maturity issues as well. BA also ended up ranking him the number one prospect in the Royals' farm system. Once again they said that he was very patient with quick hands, linedrive loft power (which is scary). His biggest flaws were his erratic arm and overall defensive mobility. His arm is a plus defensive arm, but his throws weren't accurate. He was also ranked the #75 prospect in all of baseball - not bad for being the 61st best draft prospect 3 months earlier.

The Royals loved Butler so much, they thought he was good enough to skip Low A and the Midwest League. They sent the newly turned 19 year old to High Desert of the High A California League. He put up sick numbers, but you have to remember that High Desert is an extreme offensive environment. Regardless Butler's normalized stats still put him near to the top of the league. Overall he hit .348/.419/.363 with 25 home runs and 42 walks with 80 Ks in 92 games. He also drilled 30 doubles. He got an early promotion to AA Wichita an hit 5 HRs in 112 AB hitting .313/.353/.527 overall. Not bad for a teenager. However, he did move out to left field, and who knows if he can stick there. He was ranked the fifth best prospect in the league with a plus bat that's complete. Again the only concerns were with his defene and where he would end up. A scout compared him to Mike Sweeney, but said he could end up better. Nice compliment, eh? Due to 2005 first rounder Alex Gordon, Butler dropped to the number two prospect in the Royals' system. Once again they said his bat was great but even his defense in left needed a lot of work. Still, BA ranked him the 29th best prospect in the league, you can't ignore his bat. Butler also went to the 2005 AFL. He hit the ball well in his 103 AB, knocking 5 homers, but had the same issues on the defensive side of the game.

In 2006 the 20 year old was sent back to Double A Wichita for the full season. He seemed to face his first adversity as a prospect. By adversity I meant he did not post a .500 slugging percentage, nor a .900 OPS. Then again, he was a 20 year old who spent all season in Double A. Oh yeah, his statline? .331/.388/.499. The only thing missing was a bit of power, but it should not be any concern since he hit 33 doubles, 15 homers and managed to keep his walk rate in check while lowering his strikeout rate (41:67). Butler is going to be near the top of the Southern League in the prospect rankings due out in a couple weeks, but he was not even the best prospect on his own team. He's going to be in the top 10 prospects in all of baseball when those annual lists come out as well.

Butler's skills and tools offensively are great. He does not have the classic look as a hitter. He uses an open stance, keeps his hands high and uses and unorthodox toe spin/tap. The result? A quick compact linedrive machine of a swing with tremendous loft power. It might not look pretty, but it works to perfection. This year he killed lefties hitting well over .400 against them, but still hit over .300 against righties with a good strikeout rate. His K rate against lefties was almost non existent. Unlike High Desert, Wichita is an extreme pitcher's park for the league. His line ended up being a .296 EqA, and well he did a lot of his hitting away from Wichita. He hit .357/.413/.576 with 14 of his 15 homers on the road. The reduction in home runs is certainly is not a concern. He also striggled at the beginning of the season and was back to hitting around .350 in the second half of the season.

Next year Butler will probably be in Omaha at age 21, but he's probably the second-best hitter overall in the entire organization - second to only Alex Gordon. Sorry Mark Teahan fans, not buying his crap. The best comparison for Butler is probably Travis Hafner. There are some differences here. Both guys are all-around hitters who can hit for power, average and draw walks while not killing themselves with strikeouts. Both guys are barrel-chested with an utter lack of defense. The biggest difference was that Hafner was a late-bloomer and Butler has been fast-tracked to the majors. Of course Butler is a righty and Hafner is a lefty, but that's just a small detail.

Fooled Ya!

2006-09-14T00:10:00.000-05:00

I figured the reverse-jinx might work, but oh well. No such luck. As usual the Cubs' offense faltered as the pitching faltered too. Today's game was just a terrible game overall for the Cubs. It all started ominous with a Rafael Furcal infield single and later scored. He should be a Cub you know. Gooz got through the second unscathed, but Furcal homered off him in the third inning making it two to nothing. The wheels came off in the fifth for Angel Guzman. When it was all said and done he gave up 8 hits, 5 earned runs in 4+ innings of work. He walked four and only struck out one. Yuck. Will Ohman also gave up a run in the fifth. Les Walrond, Jae-kuk Ryu and Roberto Novoa all pitched well out of the pen, but there was no way the Cubs' meager offense would make up the difference.

The Cubs did bang out seven hits today, but they were all singles and the Cubs had no walks. Aramis Ramirez had a multi-hit game, so that's good I guess. Can someone tell me why the heck Dusty insists on playing John Mabry at 1B on the days that Derrek Lee is out? I see no reason that he should be played over Scott Moore. More Moore dammit!

Brad Penny was too much. He finally busted out of his slump, well if by bust I mean got the Cubs on the schedule I guess I have a point here. He pitched seven innings allowing seven hits, striking out six and walking none. Has anyone realized how good Takashi Saito has been? He has 91 SO in 69 innings now with 40 hits and 21 walks. Damn! I expect to have more Japanese baseball features here in the offseason. And will certainly keep you guys posted on what's up.

Jae-kuk Ryu had a great outing, and has pitched very well the last few times out. Since being recalled in August he has pitched 7 innings allowing a run, 7 Ks, 6 hits and just one walk. I think it is time he gets a start. I am the biggest Angel Guzman fan in the world, but demoting Goooz for his last two turns might give him a much-needed kick in the ass for the offseason.

On a more serious note, let's keep Glendon Rusch in our prayers.

Goooz

2006-09-13T17:45:00.000-05:00

Angel Guzman is going to dominate tonight.

That is all.

Ugly

2006-09-13T00:48:00.000-05:00

Tonight's game might be the ugliest win in Cubs' history. The Cubs' made six errors including three by Fast Freddie Bynum and another non-call error yet still won in bonus baseball. Sean Marshall got lit, any surprise there? That Marshall we saw at the beginning of the season is now certainly a fluke - or atleast he is not ready yet. The bullpen was brilliant in the win.

That's all I got, I am busy.

Scott Elbert

2006-09-12T01:44:00.000-05:00

Scott Elbert was grew up in Missouri and graduated from Seneca High School in Seneca. Going into the 2004 draft he was one of the premium talents in the draft. He was the second rated prep pitcher and the #12 prospect overall, narrowing out Mark Rogers, Eric Hurley and Philip Hughes. He was a tremendous athletic talent. He had a fastball that sat 90-93 with sink and control. He also had a solid slider and a good change. His athletic ability on the football field gave him good projectability as a pitcher. He slipped to the 17th pick and Dodgers nabbed him.

Elbert signed rather quickly and made his professional debut as a 19 year old for Ogden in the Pioneer league. The results weren't great. He went 2-3 with a 5.26 ERA in 49.2 innings. He did strikeout 45 batters but he also issued 30 free passes. Baseball America named him the sixth best prospect in the league.They noted that he did not pitch with the same aggression that he used in high school. They also commended him for his easy cheese. His slider started to develop and showed an average changeup.

The Dodgers sent their young lefty to the South Atlantic League to start his first full season. It was a tremendous success as he posted a 2.66 ERA in 25 games and struck out 128 batters in 115 innings of work (10.02 K/9). His command was not great as he walked 57 batters. Still he showed alot of stuff on the mound for a 20 year old in the Sally. Baseball America recognized Elbert's talents and named him the best prospect in the league. He increased his commmand on his fastball that sat 88-93 with sink and depth. His curveball tightened into a power sweeping curve. His changeup is still average, but his curve developed into a true strikeout pitch. The command on his breaking pitches still needed work and could come up to hurt him in the upper levels. Baseball America also ranked Elbert as the number six prospect in the stacked Dodgers system, which would be top 2 or 3 in most. This was evident when he was ranked #55 in the BA Top 100 in February.

The Dodgers took the kid gloves off of Elbert in 2006. They started him out with Vero Beach in the Florida State League. Vero Beach is a hitter's haven and he showed no signs that it was bothering him as he posted a 2.37 ERA in 17 games with 97 Ks in 83.2 innings of owrk. He did walk 41 overall, but he's young and still has time to work on his command. They then promoted him to Jacksonville midway through the season and he posted a 3.61 ERA in 11 starts. His K rate was still high and his BB rate spiked a bit, but his HR rate went through the roof as he gave up more and more flyballs - so much for the sink on his pitches. His GB% in the Florida State League was a respectable 45.7% but that figure dropped to 29.5% in the Southern League. Among qualifiers, only Chris Young had a lower rate in the National League. This coupled with his walks should concern me, but Chavez Ravine should mask this deficiency. However if the Dodgers promote Elbert to Triple A Las Vegas before he gets this figure to respectability, Elbert's going to lit up like a pumpkin.

That said, Elbert is the top left-handed pitching prospect in the minor leagues. His upside is a number two starter, I am not sure if his command and flyball tendencies will allow him to be anymore. His stuff in the minors is only bettered by Donald Veal, Mark Pawelek, Clayton Kershaw and Juan Morales from the left-hand side. His fastball this season still has sat 90-93 touching 95 MPH and has been able to maintain his velocity deep into games. His slider has developed into a potential plus pitch, but his command with it needs a lot of work. He's a power pitching southpaw with a two good pitches, so he has some upside and he could be in the majors by July 2007. He's going to be in the top 25 of most prospect lists, I would assume.

King of the Hill

2006-09-12T00:24:00.000-05:00

Another Rich Hill start another brilliant Rich Hill performance. I don't know what to say. He's certainly established himself as a quality starter in the league and is certainly going to be in our rotation next season. I guess Jumbo did good for not trading him any deal. Rich threw 5.2 brilliant innings allowing one earned run to score. The unearned run was in a screwy inning, but anyways. Rich struck out six and only walked a couple of batters. He was removed because he threw a Cubsean 120 pitches. Command really was not the culprit with his pitch count, in fact he threw 80 strikes in the game! Since the beginning of August here's our boy's line.

55.1 IP, 2.59 ERA , 42 H, 51 K, 16 BB

That's damn near in line with his performance in Triple A the last two seasons. The Cubs have won three of their last 17 games. All three were started by Rich Hill. God, the rest suck. The Cubs offense started quickly with Jacque Jones and Derrek Lee hitting three run home runs off of John Smoltz who was later removed in with a groin injury. Derrek Lee added another home run in the sixth. He's really looked good since being activated. Fast Freddie Bynum drew three walks and got a hit, meaning Ryan Theriot lost a week of playing time. That's good because well it means more losses. Hank White also managed to collect two hits as well.

Ryan Dempster entered the game in the seventh and had his first scoreless outing in a few weeks. Nice to see him look good, but right now he's like the 5th best pitcher in our pen. With the recent emergence of a dominant David Aardsma perhaps trading Bob Howry is a plausible option to gain offense (I am looking at the Braves' Marcus Giles).

1. 90 Kansas City Royals
2. 87 Chicago Cubs
3. 87 Tampa Bay Devil Rays
4. 86 Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates were the only team in the race that played tonight, they won as well. The Cubs are now3 games behind Kansas City and are a half game up on the Devil Rays. The Cubs have a critical series coming up with the Dodgers. Los Angeles has a 1.5 game lead in the National League West and a 3.5 lead on the Wild Card spot. A classic sweep of the Cubs would mean that the Dodgers would essentially lock up a spot in the playoffs as long as they don't collapse the final 15 games of the season. The Cubs have not won a game not started by Rich Hill or Carlos Zambrano since the Ryan O'Malley game. Neither of those guys should be pitching in this series so they have a huge advantage. It's a bummer that we miss Greg Maddux this series, but here are the matchups:

Sep 12: Derek Lowe (14-8 3.64) vs Sean Marshall (5-9 5.27) - CSN
Sep 13: Brad Penny (15-8 4.21) vs Angel Guzman (0-5 7.53) - WGN
Sep 14: Hong-Chih Kuo (1-4 4.46) vs Wade Miller (0-1 12.00) - WGN

The Cubs have not won a game that Sean Marshall has started since July 5th and the Cubs are 1-11 in games that Angel Guzman pitches in. That one victory was the 18 inning game against the Astros where Gooz threw three solid innings. I guess I should not be expecting much this series. Oh well we should continue to gain ground in the draft pick race.

Duel!

2006-09-11T00:37:00.000-05:00

Wow, I don't know how today's game became a pitcher's duel. The matchup was terrible on paper, yet both starts should the ability to get swings and misses. The Cubs were dominated by Braves' starter Lance Cormier. I didn't know he was capable of amassing 10 strikeouts in seven innings of work. He had a great breaking ball all game long. Dusty didn't help his cause putting out one of the worst lineups for the Cubs all season. Juan Mateo was very good, but the two runs he ended up giving him the loss. Wow, Freddie Bynum homered! All contendors for the draft pick lost, so no ground picked up. Tomorrow is a dandy, John Smoltz and Richard Hill.

Reid Brignac

2006-09-10T03:46:00.000-05:00

In the second round of the 2004 draft, then Rays' scouting director, Tim Wilken, took a shortstop from St. Amount High School in Louisiana, Reid Brignac. That draft has seemed to be one of the best drafts in recent memory. Four of their first five selections are Top 100 prospects, Brignac, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and Jake McGee. Brignac signed rather quickly for $750,000. Going into the draft Brignac was projected as a 3rd-5th rounder with signability issues. He was ranked the 100th best prospect in the nation by Baseball America. He was given dues for his batspeed from the leftside, but his defense was a question as it seemed likely he would end up as a thirdbaseman or a corner outfielder. He had projectable power as he matured physically.

The Rays started him out in their Rookie Level club, Princeton of the Appalachian League. Brignac had an impressive debut hitting .361 with a HR in 25 games, showing solid plate discipline, 9 walks to 10 Ks in 97 AB. He did well enough to be rated the number four prospect in the league. They commended him on his discipline out of high school and said his arm was good enough for short, but he still may move to another position down the road. He also was ranked the number five prospect in the Devil Ray system, with notes that his bat could play anywhere and his athleticism should allow him to play anywhere. Their feeling was that he would still outgrow shortstop.

In 2005 the Devil Rays sent the 19 year old to Low A Southwest Michigan in the Midwest League. Brignac struggled for most of the season and his plate discipline collapsed. He managed to hit 15 home runs, but struck out 131 times in just 512 ABs. He had a decent walk total of 40 but managed to hit just .267 with an OPS well under .750. Baseball America was still relatively high on him as he was ranked the 17th best prospect in the league. They added that he had good loft power and still were concerned he would have to move away from short. They also ranked him the fourth best prospect for the Devil Rays and commended his sweet swing and loft power.

The Devil Rays bumped the kid up to Visilia, their High A club in the California League. Just because of his enironment, his power numbers would increase due to the hitter friendly league. Southwest Michigan was relatively average in the Midwest League, but Visilia is a home run juggernaut of a park. Their HR park factor from 2003-05 was +60% in an already high league. Brignac hit .326 with 21 HRs in 100 games. He still had a slight issue with the strikeouts 82 and only walked 35 times in those games. However, there is encouraging things in his splits. Yes, he played in a HR park, but 11 of those home runs were on the road and he hit better on the road overall. Brignac then was promoted to Montgomery of the Southern League. Montgomery is a complete contrast from Visilia. It is a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. Brignac managed to hit .300 in 110 ABs there, but only hit 3 home runs and struck out a whopping 31 times compared to 7 walks.

Overall his tools are solid across the board. He has a sweet swing from the left side that produces line drives consistently. His speed is solid, but not great. This year he has swiped 15 bags but has been caught 6 times. His footwork, hands and arm are all good enough to stick at shortstop, but he's really made strides this year in his lateral quickness and range. More people think he is going to stick than last year. However there is now a logjam at third and second for the Rays. Fellow prospect Evan Longoria and former phenom BJ Upton are at 2B and 3B, respectively. I guess the Rays are dead locked on him being able to remain at short. Right now Brignac is looking like the second or third prospect in the league. Carlos Gonzalez is the consensus number one. Sean Rodriguez and Franklin Morales are close to Brignac. The Rays will probably keep Brignac in AA to start 2007 and then promote him to AAA if he performs well. If he performs well there he might get a September callup and see significant action in 2008.

For what it's worth, he's got a badass nickname: The Cajun God of Baseball

Crunch time.

2006-09-09T23:59:00.000-05:00

Tomorrow's pitching matchup might be the worst one of the season the Cubs have had. We're sending Juan Mateo and his 5+ ERA to the hill against Lance Cormeir and his 5+ ERA. Tomorrow's matchup can pretty much sum up why the teams are not going anywhere this season. It's been a long time since the Braves weren't playing meaningful games in September, 1994 to be exact. Oh well the Cubs have dropped the first two in the four game series, what's two more?

The Cubs have been playing dreadful baseball of late. I think it is a forgone conclusion that the team will have a new field manager next summer. Now it only seems as if Hendry is going to get canned. The last few home games have shown a substantial decrease in attendance, in part due to school starting and in part to the team flat-out shitting up the place. If Hendry gets axed, my favorite possibilities are Chris Antonetti, Paul DePodesta and Kim Ng in that order. Even if McPhail and the Trib do not think the new wave of statistic savvy general managers are not the way to go, the old school types have been failing for 98 years.

1. 54-89 0.0 - Kansas City Royals
2. 56-86 2.5 - Chicago Cubs
3. 57-85 3.5 - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
4. 58-85 4.0 - Pittsburgh Pirates

Only 2.5 games until the top!

Shiner's better than Miller.

2006-09-09T21:23:00.000-05:00

Keeping with the norm, the Cubs lost for the second straight game against the Atlanta Braves. Cubs starter Wade Miller still has not been able to get anything on his fastball topping out at 89 MPH on the TV gun sitting in the mid-to-upper 80s. Miller's final line was had five walks, four runs in three innings of work. In true Cubs fashion, he threw more balls than strikes. I can see our minor league coaches screwed him over too. Why Jae-kuk Ryu did not get the start is beyond me, and he did okay in relief. He pitched 2.2 innings giving up a run. Les Walrond got an out, so it is time for the daily why is he on this team question. Scott Eyre struggled putting on two base runners without recording an out. He has been solid all season long so he can get a mulligan. Michael Wuertz did okay, but allowed one of Eyre's runners to score. For the seventh straight outing Ryan Dempster gave up at least one run. Terrible.

The Cubs' couldn't hit flyball extraordinaire Chuck James. James has gotten groundballs on just 25% of batted balls this season. The Cubs hitters kept hitting soft flyballs like normal. They have no power, but Matt Murton managed to hit his 11th home run of the season, giving him seven since August began after he went homerless in June and July. Juan Pierre stole his 50th and 51st bags today. Awesome? Over the course of the season that has netted the Cubs roughly 3 and a half runs - 1/3 of a win. Thanks Dusty! Jacque Jones had a couple of knocks today. The Cubs first six hitters are hitting over .280 and the Cubs still can't score runs. Dusty take notes.

Cubs suck

2006-09-09T13:12:00.000-05:00

I should be able to use that title every day, if there was not a greater goal, the first pick in the draft. Angel Guzman continued his inconsistent dominance last night and ended up giving his ass handed to him. 6 earned in 4.1 innings ouch. Tim Hudson pitched okay, he only gave one run earned but a couple of questionable error calls led to three more runs that should go in his ERA, but oh well we know why the Braves won all of those ERA titles.

Oh well today we get the Cub debut of Wade Miller and his 85 MPH fastball, awesome.

Goooz

2006-09-08T00:44:00.000-05:00

Tomorrow it's Angel Guzman vs Tim Hudson. Halfway thru 2003 a matchup like this down the road could have been headline news. Guzman has struggled with health and so has Hudson. Goooz is coming off another rough short outing. He allowed 3 runs in 4.2 innings against the Giants before being removed with a cramp in his forearm. To his credit, he looked pretty good for most of the start. He now has a 7.05 ERA thru 8 career starts and roughly 45 innings. The big thing with him has been that dreadful walk total 30 overall. Given his totals in the minors I am thinking he will adjust. He's had no problem striking out batters in his young career. He's been very inconsistent from batter to batter. He will make one look foolish and then look foolish to the next. However, he's been a bit better of late. His changeup has really come on the last month or so. Of course his three pitch repetoire can't be denied and would be wasted in the bullpen.

Hudson has been a total bust since he was traded to the Braves. Dan Meyer has too, so Brave fans can't get too upset. Hudson has given up 4 runs or more in each of his last three starts and gave up three homers in his last two starts. Last start against the Phillies he allowed 6 runs in 7 innings. His ERA is an absurdly high (for him) 4.95. His ERA is way over 5.50 since the break, so the Cubs could get some runs off him - until you think about it and realize they're the Cubs.

1. 89 Kansas City Royals
2. 84 Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2. 84 Chicago Cubs
4. 84 Pittsburgh Pirates

The Rays and Cubs are a half game up on the Pirates. Keep in mind that the Rays have the tiebreaker advantage. 3B prospect Beau Mills is transferring out of Fresno State due to grades. It's been news for awhile now, but there is a good article on it.

Stat of the Day: Double Play Percentage (Worst 10):

1. 23.3 Angel Berroa
2. 23.1 Shea Hillenbrand
3. 22.9 Ronny Paulino
4. 22.8 Brad Ausmus
5. 22.5 Russell Martin
6. 22.2 Bengie Molina
7. 21.9 Kevin Millar
8. 21.9 Troy Glaus
9. 21.9 Victor Martinez
10. 21.8 Mike Jacobs

GCL Top 20 Prospects

2006-09-07T22:44:00.000-05:00

1. Clayton Kershaw, LHP - GCL Dodgers

Kershaw was the first high school player selected in June and he surely didn't disappoint. He had a 54:5 K:BB and a sub 2.00 ERA. To be honest, I am shocked that hitters batted over .200 considering those 54 K's came in under 40 innings. Kershaw's fastball tops out at 96 sitting in the low 90s. He's also got a big curveball that's a plus pitch as well. He's one of the finest left-handed prospects in the minors, quite possibly only Donnie Veal, Andrew Miller and fellow Dodger Scott Elbert grade out higher.

2. Kyle Drabek, RHP - GCL Phillies

The son of a Cy Young award winner struggled in his pro debut. His ratios were out of whack and he got torched. Still his natural stuff cannot be denied. His fastball runs 92-96 topping out in the high 90s. His spike curve and sliders also flash plus potential. He's not very projectable because he is listed at a very generous 6'0" but his present stuff is already on the top of charts. He does have makeup issues, and I do not know if they played a role in his struggles in the GCL. He also could have had a tired arm since he sent his team to the #1 National ranking through mid June. It was only six games so we can't read too much into the numbers.

3. Angel Reyes, LHP - GCL Yankees

Reyes has tremendous left-handed stuff. His fastball sits 91-93 topping out at 95. He flashes a plus curveball, and a developing slider and change. He's shown command, poise and everything. His stuff could be plus-plus down the road. The only issue is his size. He's only 5'11" 170 so he isn't very projectable but much like Kyle Drabek is present stuff is undeniable.

4. Dellin Betances, RHP - GCL Yankees

Betances proved too much for the GCL. His fastball has touched mid 90s in the past and sat in the low 90s in the GCL. Given his height (listed at 6'7") he's a good bet to gain velocity as he matures. His curveball has flashed potential and he's still supposed to be pretty raw. His pure stuff simply overmatched GCL hitters. Low A Charelston will be the first test on how raw he is.

5. Chris Parmelee, LF - GCL Twins

Parmelee is an advanced high school draftee for the Twins. He shows above average hitting tools across the board. That includes discipline, power, average the works. His speed is a little below average but he has more than enough arm strength to play RF or LF. His advanced play from Southern California baseball proved too much for the GCL as he was among the leaders in HR, SLG and OPS.

6. Chris Marrero, OF - GCL Nationals

Marrero did not hme in his pro debut, but the 2006 first rounder has legitimate 70 power and managed to hit 9 doubles in 81 ABs, however he did strike out 19 times. His tools grade out as average or higher acress the board. He should be able to stay at third, but may have to move to first or left down the road, but his power potential plays at either position.

7. Jason Place, CF - GCL Red Sox

Place was taken in the first round of the draft and had a solid debut. He hit well overall, but was very patient at the plate. In 130 PAs he struck out 35 times and walked 17 times. The strikeouts are not a surprise but the walks were. He's a five tool guy with 70 power and plus-plus arm strength in the outfield. The best major league comp right now would be Jeff Francoeur with a little more discipline.

8. Steven Evarts, LHP - GCL Braves

Evarts is a lefty whose fastball tops out around 93. He has good pitchability and makeup and is projectable. His changeup is a 70 pitch and acts like a screwball. The key to him will be getting out lefties. His curveballs are just dreadful, and his armside run on his change up won't be effective against advanced left-handed hitters.

9. Jeff Locke, LHP - GCL Braves

Locke was the Braves second round pick, and has very good potential on the mound. His fastball runs up to 93 and has plus potential. He's got a large frame and has what scouts call easy gas. He has a developing curveball and an improving changeup. He's going to be a late-bloomer because he's from New England, left-handed and big. All of those three things point to that. He's certainly one to watch in the future. He's also a gamer and wants the ball.

10. Adrian Cardenas, SS - GCL Phillies

Cardenas was another supplemental pick who has made an impressive debut. He showed good extra base power with solid discipline and good speed. He won't stick as a shortstop but should adept to 2B fine. Although some scouts say he will wind up at LF where his power won't play well. He looks like a guy wh should hit for gap power while maintaining a solid average. That won't cut it in left but will do nicely as 2B.

11. Cody Johnson, 1B - GCL Braves

Johnson played most of the league at 17, but it doesn't really matter. He was flat-out terrible in his pro debut. He hit .184 with 49 Ks in 114 AB. Yes. That's an issue. He did hit one home run, but the Braves were hoping for more out of their first-rounder. It's way too early to label him as a bust, but he's got a ways to go. The big deal before the draft with him is that he has a lot of holes in his swing and his pitch recognition was weak. He has prodigous power potential but right now has problems catching up to a good fastball. He's a work horse so he may be able to correct some of these flaws, but he has a ways to go.

12. Steve Kent, LHP - GCL Braves

Kent turned 17 the month before the season started. The Aussie has a fastball that runs in the high 80s presently with a big overhand curveball that shows potential and a good changeup. He's 6'0" right now, so it's not certain how much velocity he can add down the road. He might be the best Aussie pitching prospect at his age. The Braves think he's much more advanced than Damian Moss was. Kent also gets good reviews on his feel for pitching and overall makeup.

13. Tyler Robertson, LHP - GCL Twins

Robertson was the Twinkies third round pick in 2006. He has a huge 6'5" 220 frame. Right now his fastball runs in the high 80s topping out in the low 90s, but he figures to gain velocity as he matures. He's got a good curveball that could be a plus pitch down the road. The big deal with him is that his windup is truly a wonder. That's not a good thing. It may hamper his ability to increase command on his pitches and improve his velocity. The Twins could rework them, but then he will be a work in progress and a ways off.

14. Thomas Hickman, CF - GCL Marlins

Hickman didn't have great overall numbers but he showed solid discipline drawing 30 walks in 205 PAs. He did strike out 20% of the time, but it is a byproduct of being patient. It look slike this lefty has a clue at the plate. He could move to RF has he threw 90 on the mound and he's got a sweet swinging left-handed that is a linedrive machine. He also has raw power and could develop into a high on-base power machine similar to Trot Nixon.

15. Adam Coe, 3B - GCL Braves

Coe is a 3B with good present power as he hit 7 HR in 156 ABs, among the league leaders. He also hit 9 doubles and a triple. He's a very agressive hitter who tries to pull everything. He's a bulky prospect whose bulk limits his defense. He's not flexible and is a brick at third. He might wind up at a corner outfielder or first where he'll have to hit a lot.

16. Zach McAllister, RHP - GCL Yankees

McAllister gobbled up groundballs at over 30% higher than the league rate. His fastball runs around 90, 91 with potential for more and a good slider. He also has a good feel on his changeup. He's a big 6'5" kid weighing in at 230, so to see his sinking fastball jump into the low-to-mid 90s consistently would not be a shock.

17. D'Arby Myers, CF - GCL Phillies

This is a quote from BA's draft report on Myers, "Myers will need plenty of at-bats to get it at the plate." Didn't take him that long in the GCL as he hit .313 in his debut. His discipline needs a lot of work but he is as toolsy as it gets in CF. He's good excellent range in center and good speed on the bases. He should develop above average power once he fills out his 6'3" wiry frame.

18. Preston Mattingly, SS - GCL Dodgers

Mattingly hit okay in his pro debut after the Dodgers selected him with the 31st pick in the draft. However his discipline needs a lot of refinement as he drew just 9 walks in 200 PAs. He's a great athlete with good bat speed and power. He also has plus speed, but his footwork and arm all grade out as below average so he probably won't stay at SS. He could move to 3B, but his arm makes that unlikely. LF is an option, but his bat might not be that good.

19. Chad Rodgers, LHP - GCL Braves

Rodgers was the Braves' third round pick last June. He's been compared to Jeremy Sowers. Sowers' command is better but Rodgers should gain more velocity and better stamina. His sinking fastball runs in the high 80s with good movement. He can get it up to 92 when he throws his four seam. He also has a big overhand curveball and a changeup. He's very advanced at pitching, working the ball in and out and such.

20. Felix Doubront, LHP - GCL Red Sox

Doubront used a lot of finesse to overmatch most of the complex hitters. He's got a fastball that runs in the mid-to-high 80s topping out around 9 flashing an inconsistent and at times plus curveball and a good slider. He's a very skinny guy on a 6'2" frame so he projects to gain velocity as he fills out. He appears to be very advanced and has a clue about his command, so he could move rather quickly. He's one of the better lefty pitching prospects in either of the complex leagues. The key for him will be his fastball, right now his stuff doesn't project to be more than a loogy, so gaining 3-5 MPH is going to be vital for his prospect success unless his slider and curveball both are plus-plus pitches.

Chris F'ng Duffy

2006-09-07T18:56:00.000-05:00

Chris Duffy single-handedly murdered Sean Marshall and the Cubs. He went four for four with two home runs, a walk and two stolen bases. Duffy came into the game with one career home run in roughly 350 at-bats. Go figure. Marshall didn't have it today. He couldn't get someone to swing and miss if they swung and he didn't throw the ball. When it was all said and done he gave up five runs in four innings. He was victomized by a lead-off home run by Duffy and never got it together.

Derrek Lee was given the day off and young Scott Moore made his first career start. He hit 6th and doubled in a run in the fourth inning for his first career hit. Congratulations. He then homered in the sixth, another career first. Congratulations. The Cubs pitcher who had a great game was Carlos Marmol. He came in relief for Marshall, fanned four in two hitless innings. He also got an at-bat and hit his first career home run. Congratulations. Dusty Baker realized that the pitcher the Cubs were facing was terrible and put out an equally terrible lineup. Freddie Bynum and Angel Pagan were in the lineup, going a combined 1 for 5. Aramis Ramirez also homered in the game.

Moore's homer in the sixth tied the game at 5, but Chris Duffy hit his second homer off Scott Eyre in the ninth giving the Pirates the lead. Ryan Dempster replaced Eyre and promptly gave up a home run to Xavier Nady. Dempster has now given up runs in six consecutive outings. Just by pure luck this is going to end, right?

I guess for the sake of winning we should be glad the lowly Pirates are out of here. The Cubs lost six of seven against them in the last 11 days. If we were not going for a draft pick, that would make me cringe.

No hit magic

2006-09-06T23:53:00.000-05:00

All no hitters are pure luck, but we celebrate them. So why shouldn't I? Anibal Sanchez no-hit the Diamondbacks last night on just 103 pitches. He only struckout six batters and walked four, so I think everyone with a brain is in agreement that he was extremely lucky. Still props to the kid. Still, no props to the fans in Florida. Their team is one of the best stories in baseball and I don't care what their payroll is, support the team. They are winning! The attendance for this game was a pathetic 12,561. Terrible. Anyways, ESPN has not had the balls to show a slow motion replay of the final out. Everytime I have seen it, he looked safe by a good half step.

Tomorrow the Cubs finish up their four game set against the Pirates and try to even it up. I must ask myself if that's what I really want? I don't think it is. Anyways I want to see Sean Marshall do well. He had a good start going in his return until the sixth inning and had two fabulous starts in AAA before being re-activated. The Pirates will send Shawn Chacon to the mound. Chacon's banishment to the NL hasn't gone over well. He's pitched 21 innings and has walked 21 batters. That's good for two walks for the Cubs tomorrow.

1. 89 Kansas City Royals
2. 84 Pittsburgh Pirates
2. 84 Tampa Bay Devil Rays
4. 83 Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are a half game behind the Pirates and Devil Rays. Please remember that tiebreakers are the previous' years record so the Cubs would lose any tiebreaker if needed. There is not much draft news right now. Andrew Brackman still has not announced whether or not he will go play hoops.

Stat of the Day: Top 10 ML Pitchers in Fair RA

1. 2.98 Johan Santana, LHP - Minnesota Twins
2. 3.02 Chris Carpenter, RHP - St. Louis Cardinals
3. 3.33 Justin Verlander, RHP - Detroit Tigers
4. 3.39 Roy Oswalt, RHP - Houston Astros
5. 3.54 Bronson Arroyo, RHP - Cincinnati Reds
6. 3.57 Roy Halladay, RHP - Toronto Blue Jays
7. 3.65 Josh Johnson, RHP - Florida Marlins
8. 3.66 John Smoltz, RHP - Atlanta Braves
9. 3.67 Scott Kazmir, LHP - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
10. 3.68 Brandon Webb, RHP - Arizona Diamondbacks

Seibu Lion right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka continued his hot streak this morning for the Lions in a 4-0 win over Bobby V's Chiba Lotte Marines. Matsuzaka improved to 15-4 by allowing 3 hits in 7 innings of work striking out 9 and walking none. He had struck out 14 in his previous outing and actually struckout 6 in a row at one point in this game. Not only that, Daisuke used only 70 pitches to get through the 7 innings. That's with the nine strike outs. Do the math and that pitch count is absurdly efficient. Dai-san is going to command a hefty investment if a team wants his services in 2007, but he might just be worth it. Overall in the season he has a 2.04 ERA and a 179:30 K:BB. Yes a 179:30 K:BB. No, he's probably not in line for the Sawamura award, but he's close. The Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks' Kazumi Saito is 16-4 with a 1.77 ERA and similar strikeout totals.

We're getting Rich.

2006-09-06T23:29:00.000-05:00

I told you guys it was going to be a low scoring performance. Quite the pitcher's duel indeed although the gem thrown by Zach Duke probably had as much to do with the Cubs anemic offense as it did his performance, but that's a different story entirely. Overall the Cubs snapped their losing streak against the Pirates by winning 7-2.

Rich Hill pitched the best game of his career today, and you know we have said that for quite a few recent starts for him. Rich pitched magnificently as he allowed just 2 runs - 1 earned - on four hits in 7.1 innings of work. He set the single game Cubs record for strikeouts by a left-hander with 11. He also minimized the walks, only allowing one. Since August 1st Hill has thrown 50 innings with an ERA of 2.70 and a 45:14 K:BB and just 36 hits allowed. There's little else to say about this performance, keep it up! Michael Wuertz and Bob Howry pitched 1.2 perfect innings in relief. What's notable is that when the Cubs had a 3 run lead in the eigth inning it was Howry who was warming up, not our boy Ryan Dempster.

The Cubs' offense was stifled for the first seven frames, as they garnished one run on a passball. Things really came together off the bullpen in the 8th inning as Derrek Lee celebrated his 31st birthday in grand slam fashion. The Cubs ended up tacking on two more runs, but the damage was done. Ryan Theriot had another great game at the plate with a couple of knocks and a run scored. The Riot has now reached base in eleven straight games. Lee, Matt Murton, Henry Blanco and Angel Pagan all had two hits on the day as well. Murton's 2 for 4 day puts his batting average up to .297. It really would be nice to see him get it up to .300. It won't mean he's good, but it's a nice thing to say.

Zach Duke had a good game as he just threw the ball over the plate and hoped the Cubs weak bats hit it softly, which they did. He only struck out three guys in his 7 innings of work, walking none. The bullpen killed the Pirates as John Grabow allowed two runs without retiring a batter and Matt Capps allowed four more runs and only retired one. Jose Castillo and Chris Duffy were the only Pirates to show any signs of life with the bat. Castillo had two knocks and Duffy reached twice.

King of the Hill

2006-09-06T01:17:00.000-05:00

A quickee! I spent some time tonight writing scouting reports on the Arizona Summer League. Expect a final version sometime soon!

Anyways tomorrow the Cubs will send Rich Hill to the mound. I shouldn't have to tell you but Rich has by dynamite since returning to the Cubs in late July. Since August 1st he is 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA and a 34:12 K:BB in 42.2 innings of work. He's gone eight innings twice in that span and has really looked good. His last outing was a gem as he pitched 7 innings of 2 hit ball before giving up 3 hits and a run in the 8th. Hill started against the Pirates earlier this season going 7 innings striking out a season high 9 allowing 1 run on 5 hits. Expect more of the same tomorrow.

The Pirates are sending out struggling sophomore Zach Duke. Duke a couple gems against the Cubs in the first half (16 IP, 1 ER) but the Cubs got him last month as he gave up five runs in 6 innings. Duke is coming off a solid cosmetic outing. He gave up 3 runs in 7 innings to the Cardinals but failed to strikeout a batter. However, given the Cubs offensive woes, I expect tomorrow's game to be a low scoring affair. And will WGN start showing some games?

1. 88 Royals
2. 84 Devil Rays
3. 83 Cubs
4. 83 Pirates

The Cubs finally caught the Pirates, and it only took them five consecutive losses to do it. The Cubs remain a game behind the Rays in the loss column. Without Zambrano and Barrett, the Cubs might just catch them.

Stat of the Day: NL Batting Leaders in VORP:

1. 71.1 Albert Pujols, 1B - St. Louis Cardinals
2. 67.7 Miguel Cabrera, 3B - Florida Marlins
3. 65.7 Ryan Howard, 1B - Philadelphia Phillies
4. 65.1 Carlos Beltran, CF - New York Mets
5. 55.0 Alfonso Soriano, LF - Washington Nationals

Updated AZL Top 20

2006-09-05T23:18:00.000-05:00

1. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP - AZL Brewers

Jeffress was the Brewers first pick in the 2006 draft, 16th overall. Jeffress is a big projectable righthander who throws from a low 3/4 arm angle. His fastball sits low-to-mid 90s and hits 97 with regularity late in games. His slider has the makings of a plus pitch, but his changup is a work in progress at this point. Jeffress struggled in his professional debut, but it is of no concern.

2. Hank Conger, C - AZL Angels

Conger was the Angels top pick in the draft. Conger has considerable power potential with solid contact skills for someone like him. His arm is good enough to catch in the majors but his footwork and receiving skills need work. He's similar to Daric Barton a few years back, though Conger has more power and less discipline. Conger was having a great start before getting hurt.

3. Cedric Hunter, OF - AZL Padres

Hunter was rumored to possibly be sneaking into the back end of the first round, but fell to the Padres in the third round. He's a guy with gap power and good present hitting ability. There is a question as to whether he'll have enough power for the corners, and there is a question if he's good enough defensively to play center. He torched the AZL to a tune of a .371/.467/.484.

4. Alex Liddi, 3B - AZL Mariners

Liddy could be the first big name prospect from Europe. Scouts absolutely love everything about this kid. He played most of the season as 17, showing an advanced feel for the game, which is unheard of from a 17 year old from Italy. The only hole in his bat was his contact, but it was not terrible. As he matures he should hit for solid power to go with solid batting average skills. He's a phenomenal athletic specimen and should develop into a gold glove talent at third base. He reminds a lot of scouts of a young Ryan Zimmerman, with good reason.

5. Sharloon Schoop, SS - AZL Giants

Schoop is a defensive SS, the only Giants orginazational guy better is Omar Vizquel. He was named the leagues #11 prospect last summer, saying he was a no bat great glove with crap discipline. He must have taken that to heart as he hit .310/.437/.405 with a 26:15 BB:K. His discipline shot up. He has a good chance to hit for gap power as he grows into his body, but he looks like a good one to me.

6. Jake Brigham, RHP - AZL Rangers

Brigham was taken in the sixth round of this years draft. His fastball runs in the low 90s touching 94 and a good hard biting slider. He has good command and an easy delivery. His two plus pitch potential gives him lofty upside, but he's a ways away like everyone else in the league. He pitched nicely in the league with a 3:1 K:BB and striking out a batter an inning.

7. Marcus Lemon, SS - AZL Rangers

Marcus Lemon is one of the leader type kids. He's a hard nosed player who plays his heart out every game. His potential isn't lofty but his baseball IQ and work ethic are off the charts. None of his tools are outstanding but he generates line drives well. His advanced bat tore through the AZL as he hit .310 walking 16 times in 100 plate appearances.

8. Jose Ceda, RHP - AZL Cubs

Ceda is a big dominican kid the Cubs acquired in the Todd Walker trade. He's got a great arm, touching 99 in the past. He sits in the low-to-mid 90s and has the makings of a solid breaking ball. His control is a work in progress and his ERA (3.60) wasn't spectacular but his league leading K rate of 13.4 K/9 and his hit rate of 6.7 show his dominance.

9. Brent Fisher, LHP - AZL Royals

Fisher was ranked the #18 prospect in this league last year, and flatout dominated this time striking out 98 batters in 68.1 innings walking just 19. Fisher's fringe-average stuff are an issue. His fastball runs 86-89 with great deception. His curveball and changeup are average to solid pitches. His repetoire gives him back of the bullpen potential, but his performance in the league keeps him high on the list. He's also projectable, increasing his velocity a bit this season. If he can get his fastball 89-91 he'd become a solid prospect.

10. Matt Sweeney, 3B - AZL Angels

Sweeney wasn't much of a draft prospect, but the Angels took him in the 8th round and he's been a helium prospect since. He hit .341 knocking 23 extra base hits in 170 ABs all while maintaining excellent plate discipline.

11. Carlos Peguero, IF - AZL Mariners

The third Mariner bat on the list. He's a 6'5" 19 year old with prodigous power potential. His long swing is a work in progress but his pure batspeed might have been the best in the AZL. The issue with him was contact as he struck out 49 times in 134 ABs, but knocked 7 longballs.

12. Gerardo Avila, 1B - AZL Mariners

Avila is a 20 year old who was a bit advanced for the league, but was among the league leaders in all major offensive categories. He hit .326/.369/.561 in 39 games before getting promoted to the Midwest League. His short compact swing hits for above average power. Scouts love his bat, but he's going to need some refinement.

13. Chris Huseby, RHP - AZL Cubs

The Cubs made quite a name for Huseby when they gave him a 7 figure bonus as a 11th rounder. Going into his junior season he was one of the top prospects in his age, but injured his elbow missing most of his senior season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Huseby is a big 6'4" righty whose fastball sits 90-94 with potential for more as he develops and recovers. He also has the makings of a plus hard curveball and a good feel for a straight change. Huseby didn't get much action in the AZL as the Cubs were catious with him, but he was inconsistent showing glimpes of what he could be. He finished the season with a solid 3 inning outing striking out 4 allowing one hit.

14. Rolando Pascual, RHP - AZL Brewers

Pascual was one of the premeir talents from Latin America last year. He signed with the Brewers for little over $700,000 and made his debut in the AZL. Pascual just turned 17 earlier this year and has a fastball that ran 87-93 that should gain velocity as he grows into his massive 6'6" frame. His offspeed pitch needs some work, but he's young with a big fastball. He really struggled his professional debut though.

15. Wily Peralta, RHP - AZL Brewers

While Pascual was the top international pitcher, Peralta was no slouch. Like Pascual he just turned 17 this year and has a fastball that has dialed up to 96. He isn't as projectable as Pascual and his offspeed pitches aren't as developed as Pascuals. He also struggled in his debut, but the talent's there.

16. Brent Brewer, SS - AZL Brewers

Brent Brewer is another tremendous athlete who was recruited by Florida State to play wide receiver before signing with the Brewers. He was taken 60th overall in last June's draft. He has above average power and tremendous 4.2 speed to first. He does have an issue with strikeouts that bit him in the ass in his professional debut as he had a 53:16 K:BB. His glove and arm may not let him stick at short, but he can just as easily play second or center.

17. Doug Salinas, RHP - AZL Mariners

Salinas' was a 17 year old Venezuelan who dominated the league. His fastball now has been clocked at 90, but with him it's all about projection. As he grows into his 6'4" frame he should get his fastball in the low to the mid 90s at the least. He's got clean mechanics and a bulldog agressive nature that both bode well. He also has a curve and change that are work in progresses. His dominance shows well in his line as he nearly struckout a batter an inning and held opponents to a .219 batting average.

18. Kyler Burke, OF - AZL Padres

Burke was the Padres' supplemental round pick. He's a raw toolsy outfielder with power potential. He's an incredible overall athlete so that bodes well for his future. However he struggled in his debut just hitting .209 with 56 strikeouts in 163 at bats.

19. Luis Durango, 2B - AZL Padres

The 20 year old second baseman continued his advanced approach from the 2005 VSL. He showed great discipline as he hit .378/.470.448. As you can see he has no power. He didnt homer last year or this year, but has blazing speed.

20. Henry Rodriguez, RHP - AZL Athletics

On the outside the 19 year olds stats look terrible, a 59:50 K:BB and an ERA over 7. However he had the best arm strength in the league topping out at 99 MPH and registering in the high 90s with regularity. His offspeed stuff need a lot of work. His command needs even more, but his arm strength is first class. Also, he's shown an ability to get the ball on the ground, which is quite impressive for a guy with his arm.

Honorable mention: Derrick Robinson, Rafael Dolis, Vladimir Veras, Jason Taylor, Nathan Adcock, Felix Corrasco.

Five in a row

2006-09-05T22:55:00.000-05:00

With today's 6-5 debacle, the Cubs have now lost 5 in a row to the Pittsburgh Pirates and have the worst record in the National League. Juan Mateo took the ball and turned in his best strikeout game thus far, striking out seven and walking none. I guess we can take solace in that performance. In fact Cubs' pitching struck out 13 Pirates in nine innings, a season high for the Major League strikeout leaders.

Small ball failed for the Cubs today. They banged out 15 hits and got 4 walks, but only 3 of the hits went for extra bases. They also swiped four bags, but Juan Pierre was thrown out in a tied game in the 8th inning. Scott Moore pinch hit in the fourth, getting a walk. He stayed in the game due Aramis Ramirez getting ejected for tossing his helmet on the ground. Moore stayed in to strike out once and ground out to second. Derrek Lee got three singles and stole two bases, he's starting to get back. Ryan Theriot had a couple of walks and a triple. Matt Murton knocked three singles and walked once, his batting average is back up to .295. It'll be nice to see him get that to .300 before the season is over. Even little Ronnie Cedeno had two knocks. 19 base runners and five runs. Terrible.

Both bullpens pitched well in relief of poor starting performances. The Cubs gave up one run, and guess whose it was. Ryan Dempster took the loss in the ninth in another dreadful performance. Dempster has now allowed runs in five straight outings and six of his last seven. Can someone else close? Carlos Marmol threw a couple scoreless innings. He's going to be one hell of a closer in time. Scott Eyre and Roberto Novoa threw scoreless innings. Novoa has not given up runs in five consecutive outings and Eyre has given up 1 run in 2.2 innings scattered over three outings since coming off the DL earlier this month.

Jason Bay continued to torch Cub pitching knocking two bombs off Mateo. He had four RBI and walked in another plate appearance, I can't wait until 2010 when he's no longer under contract for the Pirates. Freddy Sanchez got two more knocks and got his average up to .347. Several years ago I said Sanchez would develop into a .300 hitter in the majors, he's making me look bad in the opposite direction expected.

Tonight's attendance of 31,494 was the lowest home game attendance of the season. Quite frankly it's about time the Cubs notice some sort of dropoff because of their play. Living away from Chicago I would expect that most schools started today.

Roster Moves

2006-09-05T15:56:00.000-05:00

As expected, the Cubs recalled catcher Jose Reyes and pitcher Jae-kuk Ryu. The Cubs also announced that pitcher Jerome Williams has been claimed off waivers by Oakland and that they acquired pitcher Adam Harben from Minnesota to complete last week's Phil Nevin trade. Harben has to be placed on the forty man roster, which is why Williams was waived off the forty man. In case you're keeping score at home:

Pitchers:
1. David Aardsma
2. Ryan Dempster
3. Scott Eyre
4. Angel Guzman
5. Adam Harben
6. Rich Hill
7. Bob Howry
8. Carlos Marmol
9. Sean Marshall
10. Juan Mateo
11. Wade Miller
12. Roberto Novoa
13. Ryan O'Malley*
14. Will Ohman
15. Mark Prior*
16. Glendon Rusch
17. Jae-kuk Ryu
18. Les Walrond
19. Michael Wuertz
20. Carlos Zambrano

Catchers:
21. Michael Barrett*
22. Henry Blanco
23. Jose Reyes
24. Geovany Soto

Infielders:
25. Ronny Cedeno
26. Brian Dopirak
27. Cesar Izturis*
28. Derrek Lee
29. Scott Moore
30. Aramis Ramirez
31. Ryan Theriot

Outfielders:
32. Freddie Bynum
33. Buck Coats
34. Jacque Jones
35. John Mabry
36. Matt Murton
37. Miguel Negron
38. Angel Pagan
39. Felix Pie
40. Juan Pierre

60 Day DL:
41. Kerry Wood*

Not on active roster
Could be a free agent at the end of the season
* on the DL

Adam Harben was originally drafted by the Detroit Tigers in the 38th round of the 2001 draft. He was viewed as a raw right hander who could be something in a couple years. Harben chose not to sign and went to a community college, making him eligible for the 2002 draft. Going into the draft Harben was ranked as the number 4 prospect in Arkansas, and could go in the top 10 rounds. The Twins took him in the 15th round and he signed. Harben debuted as a 19 year old in the Gulf Coast League, striking out 27 walking 8 in 25.1 innings.

The next season Harben was sent out Quad Cities in the Mid West League. He made 15 starts going 77:35 in 87.1 IP with a 4.33 ERA. The Twins kept him there in 2004, as a 21 year old. He had superb numbers striking out 171 batters in 142.2 innings with a 3.09 ERA. Harben's succes culminated with a #10 ranking in the League's top 20 in 2004 ahead of notables Howie Kendrick, Billy Petrick and Adam Jones.

In 2005 the Twins finally promoted Harben to the Florida State League. He continued his newfound success in High A. He went 10-5 with a 2.66 ERA and a 119:62 K:BB in 135.1 innings of work. He was named the league's #16 prospect ahead of our very own Brian Dopirak. He was also named the Twins' #11 prospect.

2006 has been a little rough on the righty. His Double A transition has not gone well. He's seen a drastic drop in his strikeout rate. His K:BB this season was only 74:67 in 122.2 innings. He did improve on this in the second half. His first half K:BB was 33:45 in 71.1 innings. His second half K:BB was 41:22 in 51.1 innings. Not great, but it's a marked improvement.

Harben stands 6'5" weighing 210 and has a great pure arm. His fastball routinely clocks 89-95 touching 96 this year and 97 in the past. He also hides the ball well on his fastball making it seem faster. He's secondary pitches, a slider and a changeup, aren't great pitches but have developed into average offerenings. The Cubs have shown an ability to develop good offspeed pitches for guys, but they get hurt too. Anyways, Harben has had an issue with command in the past but it's not Carlos Marmol problems. He's also shown a good ability to get the ball on the ground at a good rate, which is refreshing with Rich Hill and Donald Veal coming through the system.

I like this pickup. He's not an elite prospect, but he's got a good arm and could develop into a middle of the rotation starter, or we could throw him in the bullpen where he could be an excellent reliever. All and all he's a very good pickup. I am not sure where he ranks in the Cubs' system, probably 10-15 right now. That says as much about him as it does the Cubs' system. He could find himself in the back end of the Southern League top 20, though I haven't really looked at who all has played there this summer.

Harben was one of the Twins' picks for the Arizonal Fall League. He was actually supposed to pitch with the Cubs' prospects on the Mesa Solar Sox. I'm assuming the Cubs might have a different plan with him. The Iowa Cubs' season is over, as is the Diamond Jaxx. So his Cubs debut will have to wait.

Top 20 Arizona Summer League Prospects

2006-09-05T01:16:00.000-05:00

Here's my rough AZL Top 20, this isn't final yet and expect some bios and a lot of revision throughout it.

1. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP - AZL Brewers
2. Hank Conger, C - AZL Angels
3. Cedric Hunter, OF - AZL Padres
4. Kyler Burke, OF - AZL Padres
5. Brent Fisher, LHP - AZL Royals
6. Jose Ceda, RHP - AZL Cubs
7. Rolando Pascual, RHP - AZL Brewers
8. Marcus Lemon, SS - AZL Rangers
9. Gerardo Avila, 1B - AZL Mariners
10. Chris Huseby, RHP - AZL Cubs
11. Jake Brigham, RHP - AZL Rangers
12. Alex Liddy, 3B - AZL Mariners
13. Brent Brewer, SS - AZL Brewers
14. Doug Salinas, RHP - AZL Mariners
15. Matt Sweeney, 3B - AZL Angels
16. Henry Rodriguez, RHP - AZL Athletics
17. Clay Fuller, OF - AZL Angels
18. Drew Rundle, OF - AZL Cubs
19. Carlos Peguero, IF - AZL Mariners
20. Rafael Dolis, RHP - AZL Cubs