Showing posts with label 2007 Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2007 Draft. Show all posts

Saturday, January 06, 2007

Cubs Draft Dreams: David Price

Year
Team
Lv
W
L
IP
H
K
BB
ERA
WHIP
2005
Vanderbilt
NCAA
2
4
69.1
51
92
30
2.86
1.17
2006
Vanderbilt
NCAA
9
5
110.1
92
155
43
4.16
1.22

One thing the terrible season in 2007 gave the Cubs was the third pick in a very good draft. It's going to be a critical selection for an organization with a depleting farm system. From all indications the top three prospects in the draft are probably going to be college products. As usual the elite players may fall because of bonus demands, so the Cubs could easily be looking between all three of them with the third pick as the Royals and Pirates aren't known for their spending in the draft. The first of these prospects would be Vanderbilt's David Price.

Price's senior season at Blackman HS in Tennessee didn't go great for the team. Price actually had a losing record, but Price's star was large enough for Baseball America to rank him as the #1 high school prospect in the state (#2 overall) and the #69 prospect in the country. At the time he was a big left-handed pitcher with off the charts projection. His fastball had reached 94, but he sat right around 90 MPH. He flashed a curveball with potential as well. He was considered a tough sign because he was a great student and had committed to Vanderbilt. It wasn't until the 19th round that the Los Angeles Dodgers took a flier on him, of course they never signed him and he enrolled at Vandy.

Price broke out in 2005 in his first season for the Commodores. He got in 16 games, starting ten of them. He struck out 92 batters in under 70 innings (11.94 K/9). He finished with a superb overall line and was recognized as a second team Freshman All-American by Baseball America. For the summer he was one of the few freshmen to be selected for Team USA, where he continued to flourish.
DateOpp
Dec
IP
R
ER
H
K
BB
2/17@ San Diego
L
4.2
7
6
5
7
6
2/22Tenn Tech
1.0
0
0
0
3
0
2/24Pittsburgh
6.0
1
1
4
9
1
3/3Ball State
L
8.0
3
2
5
10
2
3/10Brown
W
7.0
1
1
4
15
1
3/17@ Ole Miss
W
7.0
3
1
5
10
2
3/24Auburn
W
9.0
0
0
1
11
2
3/31@ Florida
W
8.0
0
0
5
13
0
4/5@ Austin Peay
1.0
1
1
1
2
0
4/7#21 Arkansas
W
8.0
1
1
3
17
4
4/14#8 Georgia
5.2
5
5
8
7
3
4/22@ #6 Alabama
L
6.1
8
8
10
4
1
4/28#13 Kentucky
W
6.0
5
4
10
9
3
5/5@ Tennessee
L
3.1
9
8
9
3
2
5/10Lipscomb
2.0
0
0
0
2
0
5/13@ LSU
W
7.0
2
2
4
8
5
5/19South Carolina
W
7.0
4
4
4
9
6
5/25@ South Carolina
W
7.0
1
1
6
8
1
6/3#10 Georgia Tech
L
6.1
7
7
8
8
5
He started four games and struck out 39 batters in 28.2 innings of work. He was named second team All-Summer by Baseball America.

Price's sophomore season started out phenomenally. Through the first week of April he was sitting at 5-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 97 K's in 59.7 innings of work .He had made eight starts and struck out at least ten in six of them. Price faded completely with the rest of the Commodores by the end of the season. The next four starts he gave up eight runs twice and four and five earned the other times. By the end of the season his ERA had ballooned to 4.24 overall, but his independent ERA finished in the mid 2's, so it probably wasn't a huge concern. His command and mechanics was what he lost, he still had good strikeout numbers though not nearly as dominant as earlier in the season. As you can see on the game-by-game breakdown he really slumped at the end.

All things considered it was a good season for David Price, but he certainly wants to finish his junior season better than last year. However, Price went back to Team USA this summer where he was the best prospect on the team - a lofty ranking considering his teammate Pedro Alvarez was on it. His command returned and he struck out 61 batters in 44 innings allowing just 7 walks and gave up all of one earned run. He was named Baseball America's Summer Player of the Year.

David Price enters 2007 as perhaps the best pitcher in college baseball and one of the best in the nation. He's got to avoid the meltdowns in order to develop. Gone is his curveball he showed in high school, now he throws his fastball in the low 90s hitting as high as 97 in the summer and a plus slider that's in the mid 90s. His changeup has become an average pitch. Price's starts will be updated here, as the Cubs certainly will look at him if his bonus demands have him slide to the Cubs and/or Matt Wieters is gone. He has the potential to take a Mark Prior-2001 jump his final season and become that kind of talent.

Monday, January 01, 2007

The Future of the Future

Despite having just one pick in the first one hundred and forty-eight picks the Cubs' draft produced three guys in Baseball Prospectus' Top 10 Prospects for the Cubs. This says as much about the state of the system as much as it does anything else, but it's still nice. Tim Wilken and company used cash to buy bigger names later in the draft, like power righty Chris Huseby.

This year the Cubs will have two picks in the first thirty-one picks, and only lose one of their picks instead of three. They will have the third pick in the draft and the first pick in the sandwich round. This year's draft class is as talented as anyone in recent memory. The top three prospects could be similar to Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira and Mark Prior.

Quite a few draft prospect lists have been released already. There are some I have acccess to and others that I do not. When it comes to draft stuff, PG Crosschecker might be the best place for information, but their pay stuff is very expensive and their low level subscription does not even grant access to the lists and scouting reports. Baseball America's regular subscription gives access to a lot of BA stuff, but of course not the Prospect Plus stuff which is similar to PG's.

Baseball America's most recent list for 2007 high school draft prospects is from December 13. The top two players are pitchers Matt Harvey and Rick Porcello. A lot of other guys are interesting for the 31 pick for the Cubs, like a Michael Main, Justin Jackson or Neil Ramirez. The Cubs' system needs offensive prospects who are relatively advanced, so it's hard to see the Cubs going after a high school product ith the third pick.

In the college ranks the big three is impressive, but only one of them is an offensive threat. If Matt Wieters is there at the third pick, it's going to be hard to see the Cubs passing him up. Wieters will be profiled more on this blog, but he's a very good all-around hitter. Personally I love Andrew Brackman and David Price, but I just don't think the Cubs will go with either of them myself. Baseball America does have a top fifty prospects including college and high school, but the HS part of it is outdated as this was written on October 13.

For those of you who don't have a subscription at Baseball America and still want a nice list of prospects, always check out BrewerFan.net's 2007 Draft Database. It is an excellent place for information on the elite prospects that does not have a high price tag. And now, I have my favorite ten prospects for the draft as of right now.

1. David Price, LHP - Vanderbilt
2. Andrew Brackman, RHP - North Carolina State
3. Matt Wieters, C - Georgia Tech
4. Matt Harvey, RHP - Fitch HS (Conn)
5. Rick Porcello, RHP - Seton Hall Prep (NJ)
6. Michael Burgess, 1B/OF - Hillsborough HS (Fla)
7. Blake Beavan, RHP - Irving HS (Tx)
8. Michael Main, RHP - Deland HS (Fl)
9. Josh Vitters, 3B - Cypress HS (Cal)
10. JP Arencibia, C - Tennessee

As you can see the HS class is very deep in the top of the first round picks. Really there are a few guys who can go ahead of Arencibia, but I think advanced catchers are a great thing to have, just because catching is such a rarity.