Sunday, March 25, 2007

One Week

That's all it is until the beginning of the season. For all of my zero readers, I promise to update this with more regularity than I did in the offseason. You have the word of a liar. Enjoy. But for now, I've got the iPod going, so I can rant a little bit. Today, let's look at the pleasure of our pitching riches and how that shakes down at the five spot.

As of this writing there are still technically three pitchers who have yet to be eliminated for the five slot. That does not mean that each actually has a realistic chance, but oh well. With Angel Guzman, Wade Miller, and Mark Prior all fighting for the spot, I feel so honored. Not really, but whatever.

Wade Miller is the odds on favorite for the spot. He's no longer the gunner he was with Houston, and now gets by on more finesse and "pitchability." Ironically enough he's displayed a surprinsingly high strikeout rate without breaking ninety on the gun. Wade's overall line this spring has been quite impressive, a 3.63 ERA in the Cactus League and a 16:4 K:BB. He has been knocked around for three home runs already, and that could be an issue if he tries to catch a hitter off guard with a supersonic 87 MPH fastball as he adjusts to not hitting 97 with it.

Angel Guzman had the luxury of coming into camp in shape after winter leagues, but had a pretty disappointing spring, in my opinion. He had the five spot by the balls once Prior started sucking. His stuff has looked dominant, but his inability to finish hitters may have cost him a spot in the rotation. His pure stuff has Uncle Lou raving, and rightfully so. I'd also venture to say his inability to finish hitters has also made the Cubs worse this season, by him not starting in the rotation. The biggest thing to jump out of his statline is of course the lack of strikeouts. It's a double-edged sword of course. Hes walked just one on the spring, but is it a byproduct of him not getting swings and misses? Still at this point, his stuff should have gotten him a bigger chance.

Mark Prior says he is ready to go. The good news is that he's improved his velocity (and performance) which each successive outing. The bad news is that he's only cracked 90 a handful of times this spring. In my opinion, there are two courses of action. They both involve him not opening the season with the Cubs. It may make him mad, but he needs to understand why. While he's made progress, he's at least two or three starts away. He needs to be hitting 90+ consistently with command before he's back. The first scenario is opening with him on the fifteen day designated list, which means that he has all of April to "rehab" if need be. He has options left so we could go that route if it looks like he needs more than just April.

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