Daric Barton

Daric Barton started out as a catcher coming out of Southern California, a national hotbed of high school baseball talent. He was rated the 72nd best prospect in the draft by Baseball America. He was rated the second-best pure hitter from the high school ranks, but did not rnak in the top five for power nor the top three for strike-zone judgement. In retrospect, the plate discipline should have been a strength. The problem was not that he could not hit. He had everything that you would want in a hitter, but his defensive skills behind the plate weren't very good. He was a young draftee, just seventeen when he signed. The St. Louis Cardinals took him with the 28th overall pick in the draft and bought him out of his Cal-State Fullerton commitment for $1,000,000.

Barton signed early enough to appear for Johnson City in the Appy League. He showed his considerable hitting ability, hitting .294/.420/.424 in 209 PAs. The power wasn't very good, he homered four times and doubled ten times. However he had a great walk rate and did not strike out too much, a 37:48 ratio. It would be the last time he's had more K's than BB's any level. He remained behind the dish though, and prompted Baseball America to rate him as the fifth best prospect in the league. His defense was good enough to keep his projection behind the plate. His power and hitting ability played well and his discipline was tremendous. He did enough to debut at #8 for the Cardinals top 10.

For his first full season the Cardinals sent Barton to Low A Peoria. He was limited to just 90 games due to injuries, but he continued to show a plus bat as he hit .313/.445/.511 hitting 13 homers and 23 doubles. He drew 69 walks compared to just 44 strikeouts. All-in-all a great debut for any prospect. He was rated the #2 prospect in the league, behind Brian Dopirak. Various scouts called him the best pure hitter in the minor leagues. Baseball America also noted while he was a count worker, he was not a passive hitter. This is because despite the 100 BB potential, he's never going to strikeout more than 60 or so times a season. Their were still doubts about his catching ability. Earlier in his career his arm rated as above average, now it was not. He wasn't athletic enough to move elsewhere besides 1B, so he gets a bit of a shaft similar to the Royals' Billy Butler.

On December 18th, 2004 Billy Beane made one of the best trades of his career. He shipped out overrated pitcher Mark Mulder to the Cardinals for Barton, Dan Haren and Kiko Calero. It's no shock that Beane has a lustful attraction to Barton. By this time, on-base percentage had become quite expensive on the open free agent market. Beane then had to get his on-base driven players through trades. Barton's plate discipline is plus-plus, so it was a no-brainer. Dan Haren and Kiko Calero were throw-ins. Haren's developed into a top 10 American League pitcher. Mark Mulder has sucked. Hard. Barton was rated the best prospect in the Oakland organization. He was also rated the 32nd best prosect in the minor leagues.

The A's sent Barton to High A Stockton of the California League. They also moved him to first base and designated hitter full-time. Barton went off hitting .318/.438/.469 in 79 games. He also drew 62 walks compared to 49 strikeouts. THe 20 year old got a July promotion to AA Midland. He nearly hit identical. He jacked 5 homers with 20 2B in route to a .316/.410/.491 line with 35 walks compared to 30 strike outs. Barton was eligible to be ranked in both the Texas League and the California league. He ranked #3 and #6 respectively. Once again he was the best prospect in the A's organization and the #28 prospect in baseball. However, he no longer caught. It's quite a bit to move from a catcher all the way down to first base.

For the 2006 season Barton was shipped to AAA as a 21 year old. For the first time in his career Barton has faced quite a bit of adversity. He only got into 43 games and hit a modest .259/.389/.395. The walks and discipline were still there. His power was about the same it had been at other stops, he just got a few fewer singles. However in late May he hyperextended his elbow and eventually it was diagnosed as a fracture. He missed the rest of the season. He had a great April and struggled in May. It was probably just a bad hot streak for a couple weeks that weighted highly in his final line due to the limited sample size. I'm not worried about this myself. Especially when you consider that his discipline remained there. God forbid a 21 year old having an OBP of .389 in Triple A. Presuming he qualifies Barton is going to be one of the top prospects ranked in the Pacific Coast League. He's probably going to fall a bit in the overall rankings. Not because of what he did, but what others did. He's probably around 40 in the BA list. He'll be higher in the Baseball Prospectus rankings. Different tastes.

So in Barton we have a 1B/DH. He hits for a high average and draws gobs of walks. He's capable of hitting .300/.420 consistently at the major league level. However his power has not developed. It's quite a debated question. His short compact stroke and strength allow him to have 25-30 home run power, but it hasn't played. Due to this some people think it's more in the range of 15-20 homers. Either way he projects to have 40-50 doubles a season. His pitch recognition is fine. There are no holes in this part of his bat. He's a lefty who hits leftys well. He's always hit them as well as righties in the minors. He's not a pull hitter. Some people feel that his lack of power production comes from him preffering to hit the ball to the opposite field - something he's great at. Perhaps as he matures, his power will develop. Either way, bottom line he's going to hit .300/.420/.480 with good consistency. If his power develops at all, he's going to be VERY good. Who is his best comparison? Probably at the minimum a Sean Casey type hitter with a lot more walks. The best comparison might just be a left-handed Edgar Martinez. Especially if his power develops.

Tennessee Smokies Baseball!

The Chicago Cubs have announced that they are no longer affiliated with the West Tenn Diamondjaxx and are now affiliated with the Tennessee Smokies. This will end a 9 years affiliation for the Cubs. Before that they were affiliated with the Orlando Rays. The Cubs will still be in the Southern League for the 28th consecutive season. In 2006 the Diamondjaxx drew less than 100,000 fans the first team to do so in the league in five years. The Smokies on the other hand drew over 250,000 and routinely rank among the attendance leaders in the Southern League. This move will allow more exposure for the Cubs prospects and it is a great move in my opinion. All of the other Cubs' affiliates will remain the same.

2006 Arizona Summer League

Rk	Mine	Baseball America
1.	Jeremy Jeffress, rhp, Brewers	Hank Conger, c, Angels
2.	Hank Conger, c, Angels	Jeremy Jeffress, rhp, Brewers
3.	Cedric Hunter, of, Padres	Cedric Hunter, of, Padres
4.	Alex Liddi, 3b, Mariners	Marcus Lemon, ss, Rangers
5.	Sharloon Schoop, ss, Giants	Brent Fisher, lhp, Royals
6.	Jake Brigham, rhp, Rangers	Matt Sweeney, 3b/1b, Angels
7.	Marcus Lemon, ss, Rangers	Sharlon Schoop, ss, Giants
8.	Jose Ceda, rhp, Cubs	Kyler Burke, of, Padres
9.	Brent Fisher, lhp, Royals	Jason Taylor, 3b, Royals
10.	Matt Sweeney, 3b/1b, Angels	Vladimir Veras, rhp, Angels
11.	Carlos Peguero, of, Mariners	Brent Brewer, ss, Brewers
12.	Gerardo Avila, 1b, Mariners	Gerardo Avila, 1b, Mariners
13.	Chris Huseby, rhp, Cubs	Luis Durango, of, Padres
14.	Rolando Pascual, rhp, Brewers	Jose Ceda, lhp, Cubs
15.	Wily Peralta, rhp, Brewers	Manuel Cabez, rhp, Giants
16.	Brent Brewer, ss, Brewers	Derrick Robinson, of, Royals
17.	Doug Salinas, rhp Mariners	Nick Van Stratten, of, Royals
18.	Kyler Burke, of, Padres	Carlos Peguero, of, Mariners
19.	Luis Durango, of, Padres	Warner Madrigal, rhp, Angels
20.	Henry Rodriguez, rhp, A's	Felix Carrasco, 3b, Padres

All in all I was happy with the results I got. In the chat, John Manuel said that Chris Huseby's projectable power arm would have ranked in the Top 10 and warranted the bonus that the Cubs gave him. He was a few innings short from qualifying. I thought that Alex Liddi was a dead lock for the lest, apparently I was misinformed. Manuel said he was definitely within the running. I don't like the omission, but that's life. I also think the Derrick Robinson and Nick Van Stratten ratings are the toolsy speed guys BA tends to overrate. That's also one of the reasons that Luis Durango ranked higher than mine did. The only guy I think I might have missed a lot on was Jake Brigham, but he had to have been close unless he lost some velocity or his stuff wasn't good. Tomorrow it is going to be the Gulf Coast League, and you can read my report on that here. I can tell you right now that I underrated guys like Gorkys Hernandez, Carlos Fernandez-Oliva and Preston Manningly. Friday should be the Appalachian League unless they redo the order or push it back until next week.

Troy Tulowitzki

Troy Tulowitzki graduated from high school in 2002 and was a standout pitcher and shortstop at Fremont HS. He went an impressive 12-1 on the mound his junior season and hit .519 as a senior. He was never a good draft prospect out of high school and wasn't one of the top 110 players in the state of California. He chose to attend Long Beach State University, who just had Bobby Crosby in their line of standout first round infielders.

LBSU plays in an extreme pitchers park where home runs are a rarity. He didn't have a great year with the bat as a freshman hitting .270/.307/.408 in 210 PAs. He hit five home runs, but only drew 9 walks. However he was noted for solid defensive play at the position. He was named second team Big West SS behind Randy Blood. He was also named to the Freshman All-American team by Collegiate Baseball.

A strong sophomore season in 2004 vaulted Tulowitzki onto draft radars. He hit .317/.410/.491 with 7 homers and improved his walk rate sigificantly. He also flashed his solid glove and was named first team All-Big West and honorable mention nationally. His status vaulted as he took the starting SS job away from Tyler Greene in the summer for Team USA. He led the team in homers hitting .299/.369/.519 with four home runs in 20 starts.

The accolades started to pile up the month before his junior season. He was named to the preseason first Team Alamerican by NCBWA, 2nd team by Baseball America (behind Greene) and second team by Collegiate Baseball. He had a huge season hitting .349/.431/.599 for LBSU, quite impressive for the park. Going into the draft he had the best defensive arm and glove for a college shortstop. He was also the third best athlete and one of the premier five tool talents. He was named the number four prospect in the draft class and number one from California. He was a physical player who played better defense than Crosby, but hit for similar power and sprays his power better. He has a good arm, quick feet and was as advanced as a shortstop can get. All of his tools graded out above average. He projected as a good defensive SS who could hit 25-30 home runs a year. His makeup and work ethic were also plauded.

The Colorado Rockies picked him up with the 7th pick in the draft. He signed quickly and the Rockies spent no time sending him outright to High A Modesto. He got into 22 games for the Nuts and hit an okay .266/.343/.457 with 4 homers before getting hurt. He did draw nine walks in 105 PAs, but he struck out. Still his raw tools were excellent and 22 games after a long grueling college season is too short of a sample size. He did not qualify for the California League top 20, but would have been very high in a league stucked with uber-prospects. He was named the Rockies' number two prospect as he showed good defense and above average powers. He ended up becoming the #25 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America.

The Rockies sent Tulowitzki to Double-A Tulsa of the Texas Leaue this season. He hit .291/.370/.473 in 103 games with 13 homers and 46 walks. He showed decent power and good on base skills. The only concern is his splits is that Tulsa is a home run friendly park and 10 of the 13 came there, but he had a higher flyball and linedrive percentage at home, so it wasn't all park. He simply hit better there, componently. He got a late promotion to Colorado and has struggled in limited action. He's hit .254/.347/.317 in 75 PAs with 17 strikeouts. He has drawn nine walks, so he's working the count a bit. He has played well the last few days, but sample size abroad.

All in all we have a shortstop who projects as an above average offensive performer with good power and offensive skills. Coors Field factored out, he's got the kind of bat who could hit .300/.350/.475 as a rough guess, with his big years being considerably higher. He combines that with an above average arm and range at shortstop. He's also an athletic guy who has quick feet and good hands. He's arguably one of baseball's top 10 prospects and will find himself at the top of the Rockies' system rankings and willl find himself was one of the top 3 prospects in a loaded Texas League.

Hunter Pence

As a high school senior, Hunter Pence was undrafted and went to Texarkana Community College in Texas. As a frehman he hit .395 with 12 home runs and 33 stolen bases. Because he wasn't under control by any major league teams as a draft and follow he was eligible again the next season. He wasn't one of the top fifty Juco prospects in the 2002 draft by BA, and was drafted by the Brewers in the 40th round. He declined to sign and enrolled in the University of Texas at Arlington. Here he continued to demonstrate his superb hitting ability as .347/.406/.561 with 8 homers his sophomore year and .395/.441/.616 his junior season. He showed pretty good developing power and a good approach at the plate. Pence was eligible again for the 2004 draft after his junior season. He was not regarded as a top five round talent by Baseball America and was ranked as the #26 draft prospect in Texas and was projected to go in rounds 6-10. They said that Pence was a good hitter with good power and plate coverage, but his arm strength limited him to left field. He also had a unique swing, something that BA would hang over his head for awhile. Houston did not have a first round pick that year, and they used the 64th pick in the draft to nab Pence. It seemed like an overdraft at the time but it has worked out. Astros scouting director David Lackey defended the pick saying, "He's a plus runner, has plus power, but his bat has a ways to go." He did concede that his defense was limited to left.

The Astros are notorious for their slow advancement rate of their prospects, and Pence was no different. He signed rather quickly and was assigned to Tri City of the New York Penn League. He hit .296/.369/.518 with 8 homers in 199 ABs. He had a good debut, but was one of the oldest players in the league. Baseball America named Pence the 13th best prospect in the league, saying his power played well and had good plate discipline, but of course he's limited to left field. Baseball America then ranked him as the 10th prospect in the Astros' system. They said that he had quick hands, plus raw power and good control of the strike zone. His swing of course was not pretty. All in all they said he had a bat for left field, and liked him quite a bit.

The Astros sent the 22 year old to Low A Lexington to start 2005. In 200 ABs he hit 25 homers hitting .338 overall slugging around .650. He got a late season promotion to High A Salem hitting .305 with only 6 homers in 151 AB. He slugged under .500. Pence was eligible for the Sally League and Carolina League top 20s. He ranked 15th in the Sally League despite his performane. This was due to his old age for the league, and a very stacked league. They said he had arguably the most raw power in the leaugue and one of the best pure hitting prospects in the league. However BA and some scouts balked at his swing and it was one of the reasons he was ranked so low. For the Carolina League he ranked 18th where once again they plauded his power but his unorthodox swing concerned them. Still, BA ranked him as the 6th best prospect in the Astros system and left him off their Top 100 prospects.

Pence spent the entire 2006 season at Double A Corpus Christi in the Texas League. He hit .283/.357/.533 in 136 games hitting 28 homers, 8 triples and 31 doubles. He also swiped 17 bases. His performance was actually better than that. Corpus Christi's home park plays like a very good pitcher's park, so he was affected there. That raw line translated into a .304 EqA for the league. The splits also bear that out for him. He hit .259/.343/.458 with 10 homers at home and .305/.371/.603 with 18 homers on the road. I should note that the homer rate on the road doesn't mean he's a 36 homer guy. 21.4% of his contacts at home were outfield flyballs and 30.4% were on the road. He should hit for more power because of this, of course it is still a factor. His HR/F rate was 5.0% higher on the road so if you adjust that to home, 12 homers at home, so he's more like a 30 home run hitter. Of course his average and such were also affected by the park.

Overall his tools are pretty good. He does have a good bat who looks to me like a guy who can hit .280/.350 with 25 homers a year. He doesn't have the jaw dropping power to hit 35-40 homers a season, nor does he have the discipline to walk 90 times a year and have an OBP over .400. He doesn't strikeout too much, but it's more because of his approach than his swing. He's a fairly agressive hitter who loves to hit fastballs. The concern in the past was that advanced pitchers would take advantage of the odd hitch in his swing and burn him, but that has not happened yet and if it did not happen in AA, it probably won't happent. However if he's going to make it, it's going to be his bat that carries him. As noted above he's a terrible defensive player. He's got decent speed but runs terrible routs and has a lousy arm. He's a capable hitter overall, but I don't see him developing into an elite leftfielder because he won't have the great on base percentages or the great power, although Pence's pull power plays well at Minute Maid Park. He's a great fit for the home park.

Pence is going to find himself near the top of the Houston Astros' prospect list, probably between 2-4. He's going to find himself somewhere in the middle of most top 100s, 40-60 and should find himself near the top of the Texas League rankings.

Electric Performances

In the last two days the Cubs have had two of their best pitching performances of the season in back-to-back games. The Reds have to be wondering what hit them. Yesterday the man of the day was young Rich Hill who threw the first complete game shutout of his career and struck out ten batters. Rich has been unbelievable since the first of August and has struck out double digits in two of his last three outings. I can't wait to see what he does in his last three! I am really excited about him.

I really did not want the Cubs to activate Carlos Zambrano for three garbage starts at the end of the seaosn, but obviously his back was fine. He was throwing his fastball in the mid 90s at times and threw 7 shutout innings while hitting his fifth home run of the season.

Carlos Gonzalez

Carlos Gonzalez was signed by the Arizona Diamondbacks out of Venezuela in 2002 as 16 year old. He was a solid prospect at the time, a 16 year old who oozed of power tools. The Diamondbacks thought high enough of him to send them to the Pioneer league as a 17 year old. Given his age, he hit a respectable .268/.308/.404 in 275 at bats with six home runs. The scouts in the league compared him to a young Bobby Abreu with more present power. He was the youngest okayer in the league showing soid defense and good arm and eletric potential with the bat. This was your classic Baseball America tools before stats before Double A type ranking. At the time he was a toolsy and an interest prospect but he was far from making cracking the top 10 of the Diamondbacks' farm system. My guess is he would have been around 25-30. Still all things considered - he was one to watch at the time.

In 2004 they sent the 18 year old to South Bend of the Midwest League where he struggled a bit in 51 ABs. He broke his hand after 14 games and was sent down to short-season Yakima of the Northwest League to strut his stuff. He showed a bit of improvement overall but ended with a similar line with about 20 points of BA added to his OBP and SLG to hit .273/.327/.427. Overall he hit .274 with 10 HRs, 19 2B, 23 walks and 83 strikeouts. His discipline was becoming a concern as he had walked 39 times in just over 650 PAs compared to over 140 strikeouts. Still he was a ways off and he his pure tools were among the best in the minors. Baseball America ranked him the third best prospect in the league. He showed plus power, and a very good throwing arm. His biggest problem with the bat was his discpline, although he adjusted in the second half of the season and became much better at hitting breaking balls. He was still not ranked in the Diamondbacks' top 10 prospects, and was near the bottom of the top 20. He had great tools, but his tools never equated into production and he was four years away from the majors, at best.

2005 was a breakout season for Gonzalez. He torched the Midwest League for 18 homers and a .307/.371/.489 line as a 19 year old. He also improved his plate discipline considerably striking out 'only' 86 times and drawing 48 walks. He flashed his usual plus power potential and his approach at the plate continued to blossom. His only not above average tool is his speed, but he made up for it with good routes and reaction in right field. Of course his arm was plus. One scout said he's like Carlos Beltran when Betran is good. He's not the runner that Beltran is but he has a much better bat at this stage. He was rated the number 1 prospect in the league, ahead of notables including Homer Bailey. He also made his debut in the Diamondbacks top 10 ranking number four - an impressive number four at that. One scout said he was the best prospect he's seen in the league since Miguel Cabrera. Overall he was ranked the #32 prospect in all of baseball a very lofty rating for a teenager.

Gonzalez started 2006 in the California League playing in the offensive haven known as Lancaster. Lancaster is a park that is plus everything for the league. Roughly +20% park factors in runs, hits, walks and -20% in strikeouts. It's HR park factor is an astronomical +64%. He hit .300/.356/.563 overall in the Cali league. He drew 30 walks with 21 home runs and struck out 104 times. He got a late season promotion to Tennessee of the Southern League and struggled mighly, though he hit 2 home runs and kept his walk rate and strike out rates fine, so I don't have too much concern there. Not only that, but he got hit in the kneck with a pitch right before getting called up.

So overall in Gonzalez we have an average defensive rightfielder with a plus arm. He projects to be able to hit 30 home runs at the major league level while maintaining a .300 batting average. His walk rates have fluctuated throughout his career and his strike out rate could be a concern down the road. That leads me to believe he can be a guy who hits roughly .300/.350/.550 in his prime, a few years above and down of course. That sort of production would be very good out of a right fielder. Of course he is just 20 so he could improve his discipline and power potenial considerably, but there are concerns. Especially this season as noted the California League is a hitter friendly league and Lancaster might be the most hitter friendly environment in the league. The splits show this considerably. He hit a whopping .364/.416/.697 at Lancaster and hit a woeful .239/.295/.433 on the road. He had almost the exact same amount of plate appearances in both, but hit 15 of his 21 homers at home. His groundball, linedrive and flyball rates where almost identical too. He had a GB% of 37% on the road, and at home it was 38%. His line drive percentage splits were about the same too - 17% and 15% respectively. All in all it's hard to see how much of it was him and how much was park.

It's still way too early in his career to look at splits to right him off, but it certainly is something worth mentioning. He's still an elite outfield propect and will find himself in most top 25 prospect lists this offseason and is probably the second best prospect in the Diamondbacks system behind Justin Upton.

Japanese Baseball

I am a fan of just about every form of baseball. I love college baseball, I love the minors, I love the majors and I love the high school game. So it follows that I probably love the Japanese leagues. This is true. My fascination is a little extreme, as I've tried to find out the EqA's of every player in the league. Of course the exact formula's aren't realesed but what is released is very very close and the park factors are not released exactly either. Still, I've attempted to do them. To do this the first thing I needed were the actual stats from NBP. Luckily, Sergei Borisov's excellent site had just about everything I needed. Secondly I needed park factors for each team, I did this using the scores from the last three years. I then calculated the park factor the same way that Baseball-Reference calculate's their's. And here they are:

.8676 Yomiuri Giants
.8727 Chunichi Dragons
.8861 Fukuoka Softbank Hawks
.8900 Chiba Lotte Marines
.9299 Hanshin Tigers
.9864 Seibu Lions
.9870 Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters
1.0002 Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles
1.0158 Orix Buffaloes
1.1193 Yokohama BayStars
1.1309 Hiroshima Toyo Carp
1.1694 Tokyo Yakult Swallows

These aren't exactly what I had expected. The Tokyo Dome is supposed to be a hitters park, but the Giants have the lowest run factor. There are a few tough things here that have to be noted. First of all most of the teams play 10-15 'home' games at small sites across the country. These fields range from high school fields to everything. So this is probably a factor in some of the park factors. Secondly, The Golden Eagles have existed for just two years, so their factor is a two year park factor. Finally, the Orix BlueWave and the Osaka Kintetsu Buffaloes merged after 2004. The new team, the Orix Buffaloes play half of their home games at the Osaka Dome and half of them at Skymark Stadium. So I split averaged the two factors from 2004 and included as one park factor.

After I got this I was ready to calculate their EqA's. I used the raw EqA formula found at Baseball Prospectus' site and the way I used the run factor was when I had to calculate the average equivalent runs in the set plate appearances, I just mutiplied half of the runs time the park factor because only half of the games are played there. And then I just did what was normal and this would be the Top 20:

.350 Kosuke Fukudome, Dragons
.335 Seung-Yeop Lee, Giants
.331 Nobuhiko Matsunaka, Hawks
.325 Tyrone Woods, Dragons
.322 Michihiro Ogasawara, Fighters
.318 Alex Cabrera, Lions
.310 Tomoaki Kanemoto, Tigers
.309 Alex Fernandez, Eagles
.304 Kazuhiro Wada, Lions
.303 Hiroyuki Nakajima, Lions

Four of the players were in Japan's WBC starting lineup. Seung-Yeop Lee was the big man in South Korea's and Alex Cabrera was supposed to be on Venezuela's but was not. Kosuke Fukudome has been one of the best players in Japan for awhile now. In 2001 it was calculated that the Japan to US factor was between .92 and .93 which would place Fukudome's EqA in the .320-.325 range - roughly equivalent to Derek Jeter. His reputation is that he's an excellent defensive centerfielder as well, so I guess the best comparison is probably Grady Sizemore. You can make a case for Fukudome being the best centerfielder on the planet if you wanted. He's eligible to come stateside after 2007, and has expressed he is interested in the past.

Lee's a free agent after the season and has had a monster season this year. He could generate quite the interest from some American League teams who are looking for a hybrid designated hitter first baseman. He has taken his excellent WBC performance and increased his stock so much. However I am not sure how much of an impact he will make. I could see him signing with the Angels who need offense no matter what. He could also wind up in Los Angeles or Seattle. I could even see Billy Beane getting in the bidding if he is priced low enough.

Another guy who is coming over soon is Akinori Iwamura. Iwamura is not listed in the top 10 as he currently sits 13th with a .300 EqA. He's a third basemen with good power and good defense. I am not sure if his game well translate near the .925 level as he strikes out a lot and does not have a lot of patience. Those are the things that burned Kaz Matsui. Still the Swallows are posting him after the season and a MLB comparison for him might be a Russell Branyan lite. He has power but could pile on the strikeouts. Remember these equivalent averages do not factor in position scarcity. Hiroyuki Nakajima would get a huge bonus here as would #18 Tsuyoshi Nishioka as they are shortstops - and in Nishioka's case masterful defensively.

Miller Time

The Cubs finally won a series today. Finally, right? Oh well we lost some ground in the race for David Price, but I guess this is good. Wade Miller started and gave up a two-run homer to Marlon Anderson. It was the only hit the thirty year old gave up. Miller pitched five solid innings allowing the one hit, two runs with three strikeouts and three walks. Wade still struggled with his command, but overall I thought he looked very good. His velocity sat around 89 most of the game, so I guess this is good. He is slowly but surely gaining velocity. With a lot of workouts in the offseason, Miller could get to his pre-surgery velocity which routinely got into the mid 90s.

The Dodgers started rookie southpaw Hong-Chih Kuo and he did well giving up a couple of runs with 6 strikeouts in 6 innings of work. However in the seventh they turned to Brett Tomko who continued to struggle. Tomko gave up four runs, the big blow being a game-winning three run homer to Aramis Ramirez. Carlos Marmol struggled in relief, but the rest of the bullpen was excellent. Michael Wuertz, Scott Eyre, Bob Howry and Will Ohman were excellent. The big shock of the late innings was that Howry closed out the game with the one run lead. It was Howry's fifth save on the season. Every Cub starter got at least one hit. Ryan Theriot, Juan Pierre and Ramirez tallied two a piece. Theriot did leave the game in the sixth due to an injury.

Billy Butler

With the fourteenth pick in the 2004 draft, the Kansas City Royals passed on Stephen Drew and nabbed high school slugger, Billy Butler, a thirdbaseman at the time. Coming out of Florida, Butler was pretty advanced for a prep hitter, but Baseball America ranked him as the 61st prospect in the draft, and 7th out of Florida. Still for signability reasons and financial reasons the Royals nabbed Butler. At the time he ha draw plus loft power with quick hands and a good approach. Despite the low ranking, his power was rated the best out of the high school ranks. Butler signed quickly and was sent out to Idaho Falls of the Pioneer League.

He hasn't stopped hitting since. In 260 AB, he tallied 22 doubles, 10 homers and 3 triples. He also displayed and excellent ability to work the count, amassing 57 walks in just over 300 PAs. He only struck out 63 times, and all of this in a league that included a lot of advanced college hitters and pitchers. Idaho isn't the lowest level of the Royals farm system. Over all his line was a very impressive .373/.488/.596 line as an 18 year old. BA ranked him the fourth best prospect in the league, and noted that he had an unorthodox swing, but had a knack for loft power and making solid contact consistently. Of course the big concern and reason he was not higher is that he was a terrible defensive thirdbasemen and was thought to have to move to first eventually. They also said he had maturity issues as well. BA also ended up ranking him the number one prospect in the Royals' farm system. Once again they said that he was very patient with quick hands, linedrive loft power (which is scary). His biggest flaws were his erratic arm and overall defensive mobility. His arm is a plus defensive arm, but his throws weren't accurate. He was also ranked the #75 prospect in all of baseball - not bad for being the 61st best draft prospect 3 months earlier.

The Royals loved Butler so much, they thought he was good enough to skip Low A and the Midwest League. They sent the newly turned 19 year old to High Desert of the High A California League. He put up sick numbers, but you have to remember that High Desert is an extreme offensive environment. Regardless Butler's normalized stats still put him near to the top of the league. Overall he hit .348/.419/.363 with 25 home runs and 42 walks with 80 Ks in 92 games. He also drilled 30 doubles. He got an early promotion to AA Wichita an hit 5 HRs in 112 AB hitting .313/.353/.527 overall. Not bad for a teenager. However, he did move out to left field, and who knows if he can stick there. He was ranked the fifth best prospect in the league with a plus bat that's complete. Again the only concerns were with his defene and where he would end up. A scout compared him to Mike Sweeney, but said he could end up better. Nice compliment, eh? Due to 2005 first rounder Alex Gordon, Butler dropped to the number two prospect in the Royals' system. Once again they said his bat was great but even his defense in left needed a lot of work. Still, BA ranked him the 29th best prospect in the league, you can't ignore his bat. Butler also went to the 2005 AFL. He hit the ball well in his 103 AB, knocking 5 homers, but had the same issues on the defensive side of the game.

In 2006 the 20 year old was sent back to Double A Wichita for the full season. He seemed to face his first adversity as a prospect. By adversity I meant he did not post a .500 slugging percentage, nor a .900 OPS. Then again, he was a 20 year old who spent all season in Double A. Oh yeah, his statline? .331/.388/.499. The only thing missing was a bit of power, but it should not be any concern since he hit 33 doubles, 15 homers and managed to keep his walk rate in check while lowering his strikeout rate (41:67). Butler is going to be near the top of the Southern League in the prospect rankings due out in a couple weeks, but he was not even the best prospect on his own team. He's going to be in the top 10 prospects in all of baseball when those annual lists come out as well.

Butler's skills and tools offensively are great. He does not have the classic look as a hitter. He uses an open stance, keeps his hands high and uses and unorthodox toe spin/tap. The result? A quick compact linedrive machine of a swing with tremendous loft power. It might not look pretty, but it works to perfection. This year he killed lefties hitting well over .400 against them, but still hit over .300 against righties with a good strikeout rate. His K rate against lefties was almost non existent. Unlike High Desert, Wichita is an extreme pitcher's park for the league. His line ended up being a .296 EqA, and well he did a lot of his hitting away from Wichita. He hit .357/.413/.576 with 14 of his 15 homers on the road. The reduction in home runs is certainly is not a concern. He also striggled at the beginning of the season and was back to hitting around .350 in the second half of the season.

Next year Butler will probably be in Omaha at age 21, but he's probably the second-best hitter overall in the entire organization - second to only Alex Gordon. Sorry Mark Teahan fans, not buying his crap. The best comparison for Butler is probably Travis Hafner. There are some differences here. Both guys are all-around hitters who can hit for power, average and draw walks while not killing themselves with strikeouts. Both guys are barrel-chested with an utter lack of defense. The biggest difference was that Hafner was a late-bloomer and Butler has been fast-tracked to the majors. Of course Butler is a righty and Hafner is a lefty, but that's just a small detail.

Fooled Ya!

I figured the reverse-jinx might work, but oh well. No such luck. As usual the Cubs' offense faltered as the pitching faltered too. Today's game was just a terrible game overall for the Cubs. It all started ominous with a Rafael Furcal infield single and later scored. He should be a Cub you know. Gooz got through the second unscathed, but Furcal homered off him in the third inning making it two to nothing. The wheels came off in the fifth for Angel Guzman. When it was all said and done he gave up 8 hits, 5 earned runs in 4+ innings of work. He walked four and only struck out one. Yuck. Will Ohman also gave up a run in the fifth. Les Walrond, Jae-kuk Ryu and Roberto Novoa all pitched well out of the pen, but there was no way the Cubs' meager offense would make up the difference.

The Cubs did bang out seven hits today, but they were all singles and the Cubs had no walks. Aramis Ramirez had a multi-hit game, so that's good I guess. Can someone tell me why the heck Dusty insists on playing John Mabry at 1B on the days that Derrek Lee is out? I see no reason that he should be played over Scott Moore. More Moore dammit!

Brad Penny was too much. He finally busted out of his slump, well if by bust I mean got the Cubs on the schedule I guess I have a point here. He pitched seven innings allowing seven hits, striking out six and walking none. Has anyone realized how good Takashi Saito has been? He has 91 SO in 69 innings now with 40 hits and 21 walks. Damn! I expect to have more Japanese baseball features here in the offseason. And will certainly keep you guys posted on what's up.

Jae-kuk Ryu had a great outing, and has pitched very well the last few times out. Since being recalled in August he has pitched 7 innings allowing a run, 7 Ks, 6 hits and just one walk. I think it is time he gets a start. I am the biggest Angel Guzman fan in the world, but demoting Goooz for his last two turns might give him a much-needed kick in the ass for the offseason.

On a more serious note, let's keep Glendon Rusch in our prayers.

Goooz

Angel Guzman is going to dominate tonight.

That is all.

Ugly

Tonight's game might be the ugliest win in Cubs' history. The Cubs' made six errors including three by Fast Freddie Bynum and another non-call error yet still won in bonus baseball. Sean Marshall got lit, any surprise there? That Marshall we saw at the beginning of the season is now certainly a fluke - or atleast he is not ready yet. The bullpen was brilliant in the win.

That's all I got, I am busy.

Scott Elbert

Scott Elbert was grew up in Missouri and graduated from Seneca High School in Seneca. Going into the 2004 draft he was one of the premium talents in the draft. He was the second rated prep pitcher and the #12 prospect overall, narrowing out Mark Rogers, Eric Hurley and Philip Hughes. He was a tremendous athletic talent. He had a fastball that sat 90-93 with sink and control. He also had a solid slider and a good change. His athletic ability on the football field gave him good projectability as a pitcher. He slipped to the 17th pick and Dodgers nabbed him.

Elbert signed rather quickly and made his professional debut as a 19 year old for Ogden in the Pioneer league. The results weren't great. He went 2-3 with a 5.26 ERA in 49.2 innings. He did strikeout 45 batters but he also issued 30 free passes. Baseball America named him the sixth best prospect in the league.They noted that he did not pitch with the same aggression that he used in high school. They also commended him for his easy cheese. His slider started to develop and showed an average changeup.

The Dodgers sent their young lefty to the South Atlantic League to start his first full season. It was a tremendous success as he posted a 2.66 ERA in 25 games and struck out 128 batters in 115 innings of work (10.02 K/9). His command was not great as he walked 57 batters. Still he showed alot of stuff on the mound for a 20 year old in the Sally. Baseball America recognized Elbert's talents and named him the best prospect in the league. He increased his commmand on his fastball that sat 88-93 with sink and depth. His curveball tightened into a power sweeping curve. His changeup is still average, but his curve developed into a true strikeout pitch. The command on his breaking pitches still needed work and could come up to hurt him in the upper levels. Baseball America also ranked Elbert as the number six prospect in the stacked Dodgers system, which would be top 2 or 3 in most. This was evident when he was ranked #55 in the BA Top 100 in February.

The Dodgers took the kid gloves off of Elbert in 2006. They started him out with Vero Beach in the Florida State League. Vero Beach is a hitter's haven and he showed no signs that it was bothering him as he posted a 2.37 ERA in 17 games with 97 Ks in 83.2 innings of owrk. He did walk 41 overall, but he's young and still has time to work on his command. They then promoted him to Jacksonville midway through the season and he posted a 3.61 ERA in 11 starts. His K rate was still high and his BB rate spiked a bit, but his HR rate went through the roof as he gave up more and more flyballs - so much for the sink on his pitches. His GB% in the Florida State League was a respectable 45.7% but that figure dropped to 29.5% in the Southern League. Among qualifiers, only Chris Young had a lower rate in the National League. This coupled with his walks should concern me, but Chavez Ravine should mask this deficiency. However if the Dodgers promote Elbert to Triple A Las Vegas before he gets this figure to respectability, Elbert's going to lit up like a pumpkin.

That said, Elbert is the top left-handed pitching prospect in the minor leagues. His upside is a number two starter, I am not sure if his command and flyball tendencies will allow him to be anymore. His stuff in the minors is only bettered by Donald Veal, Mark Pawelek, Clayton Kershaw and Juan Morales from the left-hand side. His fastball this season still has sat 90-93 touching 95 MPH and has been able to maintain his velocity deep into games. His slider has developed into a potential plus pitch, but his command with it needs a lot of work. He's a power pitching southpaw with a two good pitches, so he has some upside and he could be in the majors by July 2007. He's going to be in the top 25 of most prospect lists, I would assume.

King of the Hill

Another Rich Hill start another brilliant Rich Hill performance. I don't know what to say. He's certainly established himself as a quality starter in the league and is certainly going to be in our rotation next season. I guess Jumbo did good for not trading him any deal. Rich threw 5.2 brilliant innings allowing one earned run to score. The unearned run was in a screwy inning, but anyways. Rich struck out six and only walked a couple of batters. He was removed because he threw a Cubsean 120 pitches. Command really was not the culprit with his pitch count, in fact he threw 80 strikes in the game! Since the beginning of August here's our boy's line.

55.1 IP, 2.59 ERA , 42 H, 51 K, 16 BB

That's damn near in line with his performance in Triple A the last two seasons. The Cubs have won three of their last 17 games. All three were started by Rich Hill. God, the rest suck. The Cubs offense started quickly with Jacque Jones and Derrek Lee hitting three run home runs off of John Smoltz who was later removed in with a groin injury. Derrek Lee added another home run in the sixth. He's really looked good since being activated. Fast Freddie Bynum drew three walks and got a hit, meaning Ryan Theriot lost a week of playing time. That's good because well it means more losses. Hank White also managed to collect two hits as well.

Ryan Dempster entered the game in the seventh and had his first scoreless outing in a few weeks. Nice to see him look good, but right now he's like the 5th best pitcher in our pen. With the recent emergence of a dominant David Aardsma perhaps trading Bob Howry is a plausible option to gain offense (I am looking at the Braves' Marcus Giles).

1. 90 Kansas City Royals
2. 87 Chicago Cubs
3. 87 Tampa Bay Devil Rays
4. 86 Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates were the only team in the race that played tonight, they won as well. The Cubs are now3 games behind Kansas City and are a half game up on the Devil Rays. The Cubs have a critical series coming up with the Dodgers. Los Angeles has a 1.5 game lead in the National League West and a 3.5 lead on the Wild Card spot. A classic sweep of the Cubs would mean that the Dodgers would essentially lock up a spot in the playoffs as long as they don't collapse the final 15 games of the season. The Cubs have not won a game not started by Rich Hill or Carlos Zambrano since the Ryan O'Malley game. Neither of those guys should be pitching in this series so they have a huge advantage. It's a bummer that we miss Greg Maddux this series, but here are the matchups:

Sep 12: Derek Lowe (14-8 3.64) vs Sean Marshall (5-9 5.27) - CSN
Sep 13: Brad Penny (15-8 4.21) vs Angel Guzman (0-5 7.53) - WGN
Sep 14: Hong-Chih Kuo (1-4 4.46) vs Wade Miller (0-1 12.00) - WGN

The Cubs have not won a game that Sean Marshall has started since July 5th and the Cubs are 1-11 in games that Angel Guzman pitches in. That one victory was the 18 inning game against the Astros where Gooz threw three solid innings. I guess I should not be expecting much this series. Oh well we should continue to gain ground in the draft pick race.

Duel!

Wow, I don't know how today's game became a pitcher's duel. The matchup was terrible on paper, yet both starts should the ability to get swings and misses. The Cubs were dominated by Braves' starter Lance Cormier. I didn't know he was capable of amassing 10 strikeouts in seven innings of work. He had a great breaking ball all game long. Dusty didn't help his cause putting out one of the worst lineups for the Cubs all season. Juan Mateo was very good, but the two runs he ended up giving him the loss. Wow, Freddie Bynum homered! All contendors for the draft pick lost, so no ground picked up. Tomorrow is a dandy, John Smoltz and Richard Hill.

Reid Brignac

In the second round of the 2004 draft, then Rays' scouting director, Tim Wilken, took a shortstop from St. Amount High School in Louisiana, Reid Brignac. That draft has seemed to be one of the best drafts in recent memory. Four of their first five selections are Top 100 prospects, Brignac, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and Jake McGee. Brignac signed rather quickly for $750,000. Going into the draft Brignac was projected as a 3rd-5th rounder with signability issues. He was ranked the 100th best prospect in the nation by Baseball America. He was given dues for his batspeed from the leftside, but his defense was a question as it seemed likely he would end up as a thirdbaseman or a corner outfielder. He had projectable power as he matured physically.

The Rays started him out in their Rookie Level club, Princeton of the Appalachian League. Brignac had an impressive debut hitting .361 with a HR in 25 games, showing solid plate discipline, 9 walks to 10 Ks in 97 AB. He did well enough to be rated the number four prospect in the league. They commended him on his discipline out of high school and said his arm was good enough for short, but he still may move to another position down the road. He also was ranked the number five prospect in the Devil Ray system, with notes that his bat could play anywhere and his athleticism should allow him to play anywhere. Their feeling was that he would still outgrow shortstop.

In 2005 the Devil Rays sent the 19 year old to Low A Southwest Michigan in the Midwest League. Brignac struggled for most of the season and his plate discipline collapsed. He managed to hit 15 home runs, but struck out 131 times in just 512 ABs. He had a decent walk total of 40 but managed to hit just .267 with an OPS well under .750. Baseball America was still relatively high on him as he was ranked the 17th best prospect in the league. They added that he had good loft power and still were concerned he would have to move away from short. They also ranked him the fourth best prospect for the Devil Rays and commended his sweet swing and loft power.

The Devil Rays bumped the kid up to Visilia, their High A club in the California League. Just because of his enironment, his power numbers would increase due to the hitter friendly league. Southwest Michigan was relatively average in the Midwest League, but Visilia is a home run juggernaut of a park. Their HR park factor from 2003-05 was +60% in an already high league. Brignac hit .326 with 21 HRs in 100 games. He still had a slight issue with the strikeouts 82 and only walked 35 times in those games. However, there is encouraging things in his splits. Yes, he played in a HR park, but 11 of those home runs were on the road and he hit better on the road overall. Brignac then was promoted to Montgomery of the Southern League. Montgomery is a complete contrast from Visilia. It is a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. Brignac managed to hit .300 in 110 ABs there, but only hit 3 home runs and struck out a whopping 31 times compared to 7 walks.

Overall his tools are solid across the board. He has a sweet swing from the left side that produces line drives consistently. His speed is solid, but not great. This year he has swiped 15 bags but has been caught 6 times. His footwork, hands and arm are all good enough to stick at shortstop, but he's really made strides this year in his lateral quickness and range. More people think he is going to stick than last year. However there is now a logjam at third and second for the Rays. Fellow prospect Evan Longoria and former phenom BJ Upton are at 2B and 3B, respectively. I guess the Rays are dead locked on him being able to remain at short. Right now Brignac is looking like the second or third prospect in the league. Carlos Gonzalez is the consensus number one. Sean Rodriguez and Franklin Morales are close to Brignac. The Rays will probably keep Brignac in AA to start 2007 and then promote him to AAA if he performs well. If he performs well there he might get a September callup and see significant action in 2008.

For what it's worth, he's got a badass nickname: The Cajun God of Baseball

Crunch time.

Tomorrow's pitching matchup might be the worst one of the season the Cubs have had. We're sending Juan Mateo and his 5+ ERA to the hill against Lance Cormeir and his 5+ ERA. Tomorrow's matchup can pretty much sum up why the teams are not going anywhere this season. It's been a long time since the Braves weren't playing meaningful games in September, 1994 to be exact. Oh well the Cubs have dropped the first two in the four game series, what's two more?

The Cubs have been playing dreadful baseball of late. I think it is a forgone conclusion that the team will have a new field manager next summer. Now it only seems as if Hendry is going to get canned. The last few home games have shown a substantial decrease in attendance, in part due to school starting and in part to the team flat-out shitting up the place. If Hendry gets axed, my favorite possibilities are Chris Antonetti, Paul DePodesta and Kim Ng in that order. Even if McPhail and the Trib do not think the new wave of statistic savvy general managers are not the way to go, the old school types have been failing for 98 years.

1. 54-89 0.0 - Kansas City Royals
2. 56-86 2.5 - Chicago Cubs
3. 57-85 3.5 - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
4. 58-85 4.0 - Pittsburgh Pirates

Only 2.5 games until the top!

Shiner's better than Miller.

Keeping with the norm, the Cubs lost for the second straight game against the Atlanta Braves. Cubs starter Wade Miller still has not been able to get anything on his fastball topping out at 89 MPH on the TV gun sitting in the mid-to-upper 80s. Miller's final line was had five walks, four runs in three innings of work. In true Cubs fashion, he threw more balls than strikes. I can see our minor league coaches screwed him over too. Why Jae-kuk Ryu did not get the start is beyond me, and he did okay in relief. He pitched 2.2 innings giving up a run. Les Walrond got an out, so it is time for the daily why is he on this team question. Scott Eyre struggled putting on two base runners without recording an out. He has been solid all season long so he can get a mulligan. Michael Wuertz did okay, but allowed one of Eyre's runners to score. For the seventh straight outing Ryan Dempster gave up at least one run. Terrible.

The Cubs' couldn't hit flyball extraordinaire Chuck James. James has gotten groundballs on just 25% of batted balls this season. The Cubs hitters kept hitting soft flyballs like normal. They have no power, but Matt Murton managed to hit his 11th home run of the season, giving him seven since August began after he went homerless in June and July. Juan Pierre stole his 50th and 51st bags today. Awesome? Over the course of the season that has netted the Cubs roughly 3 and a half runs - 1/3 of a win. Thanks Dusty! Jacque Jones had a couple of knocks today. The Cubs first six hitters are hitting over .280 and the Cubs still can't score runs. Dusty take notes.

Cubs suck

I should be able to use that title every day, if there was not a greater goal, the first pick in the draft. Angel Guzman continued his inconsistent dominance last night and ended up giving his ass handed to him. 6 earned in 4.1 innings ouch. Tim Hudson pitched okay, he only gave one run earned but a couple of questionable error calls led to three more runs that should go in his ERA, but oh well we know why the Braves won all of those ERA titles.

Oh well today we get the Cub debut of Wade Miller and his 85 MPH fastball, awesome.

Goooz

Tomorrow it's Angel Guzman vs Tim Hudson. Halfway thru 2003 a matchup like this down the road could have been headline news. Guzman has struggled with health and so has Hudson. Goooz is coming off another rough short outing. He allowed 3 runs in 4.2 innings against the Giants before being removed with a cramp in his forearm. To his credit, he looked pretty good for most of the start. He now has a 7.05 ERA thru 8 career starts and roughly 45 innings. The big thing with him has been that dreadful walk total 30 overall. Given his totals in the minors I am thinking he will adjust. He's had no problem striking out batters in his young career. He's been very inconsistent from batter to batter. He will make one look foolish and then look foolish to the next. However, he's been a bit better of late. His changeup has really come on the last month or so. Of course his three pitch repetoire can't be denied and would be wasted in the bullpen.

Hudson has been a total bust since he was traded to the Braves. Dan Meyer has too, so Brave fans can't get too upset. Hudson has given up 4 runs or more in each of his last three starts and gave up three homers in his last two starts. Last start against the Phillies he allowed 6 runs in 7 innings. His ERA is an absurdly high (for him) 4.95. His ERA is way over 5.50 since the break, so the Cubs could get some runs off him - until you think about it and realize they're the Cubs.

1. 89 Kansas City Royals
2. 84 Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2. 84 Chicago Cubs
4. 84 Pittsburgh Pirates

The Rays and Cubs are a half game up on the Pirates. Keep in mind that the Rays have the tiebreaker advantage. 3B prospect Beau Mills is transferring out of Fresno State due to grades. It's been news for awhile now, but there is a good article on it.

Stat of the Day: Double Play Percentage (Worst 10):

1. 23.3 Angel Berroa
2. 23.1 Shea Hillenbrand
3. 22.9 Ronny Paulino
4. 22.8 Brad Ausmus
5. 22.5 Russell Martin
6. 22.2 Bengie Molina
7. 21.9 Kevin Millar
8. 21.9 Troy Glaus
9. 21.9 Victor Martinez
10. 21.8 Mike Jacobs

GCL Top 20 Prospects

1. Clayton Kershaw, LHP - GCL Dodgers

Kershaw was the first high school player selected in June and he surely didn't disappoint. He had a 54:5 K:BB and a sub 2.00 ERA. To be honest, I am shocked that hitters batted over .200 considering those 54 K's came in under 40 innings. Kershaw's fastball tops out at 96 sitting in the low 90s. He's also got a big curveball that's a plus pitch as well. He's one of the finest left-handed prospects in the minors, quite possibly only Donnie Veal, Andrew Miller and fellow Dodger Scott Elbert grade out higher.

2. Kyle Drabek, RHP - GCL Phillies

The son of a Cy Young award winner struggled in his pro debut. His ratios were out of whack and he got torched. Still his natural stuff cannot be denied. His fastball runs 92-96 topping out in the high 90s. His spike curve and sliders also flash plus potential. He's not very projectable because he is listed at a very generous 6'0" but his present stuff is already on the top of charts. He does have makeup issues, and I do not know if they played a role in his struggles in the GCL. He also could have had a tired arm since he sent his team to the #1 National ranking through mid June. It was only six games so we can't read too much into the numbers.

3. Angel Reyes, LHP - GCL Yankees

Reyes has tremendous left-handed stuff. His fastball sits 91-93 topping out at 95. He flashes a plus curveball, and a developing slider and change. He's shown command, poise and everything. His stuff could be plus-plus down the road. The only issue is his size. He's only 5'11" 170 so he isn't very projectable but much like Kyle Drabek is present stuff is undeniable.

4. Dellin Betances, RHP - GCL Yankees

Betances proved too much for the GCL. His fastball has touched mid 90s in the past and sat in the low 90s in the GCL. Given his height (listed at 6'7") he's a good bet to gain velocity as he matures. His curveball has flashed potential and he's still supposed to be pretty raw. His pure stuff simply overmatched GCL hitters. Low A Charelston will be the first test on how raw he is.

5. Chris Parmelee, LF - GCL Twins

Parmelee is an advanced high school draftee for the Twins. He shows above average hitting tools across the board. That includes discipline, power, average the works. His speed is a little below average but he has more than enough arm strength to play RF or LF. His advanced play from Southern California baseball proved too much for the GCL as he was among the leaders in HR, SLG and OPS.

6. Chris Marrero, OF - GCL Nationals

Marrero did not hme in his pro debut, but the 2006 first rounder has legitimate 70 power and managed to hit 9 doubles in 81 ABs, however he did strike out 19 times. His tools grade out as average or higher acress the board. He should be able to stay at third, but may have to move to first or left down the road, but his power potential plays at either position.

7. Jason Place, CF - GCL Red Sox

Place was taken in the first round of the draft and had a solid debut. He hit well overall, but was very patient at the plate. In 130 PAs he struck out 35 times and walked 17 times. The strikeouts are not a surprise but the walks were. He's a five tool guy with 70 power and plus-plus arm strength in the outfield. The best major league comp right now would be Jeff Francoeur with a little more discipline.

8. Steven Evarts, LHP - GCL Braves

Evarts is a lefty whose fastball tops out around 93. He has good pitchability and makeup and is projectable. His changeup is a 70 pitch and acts like a screwball. The key to him will be getting out lefties. His curveballs are just dreadful, and his armside run on his change up won't be effective against advanced left-handed hitters.

9. Jeff Locke, LHP - GCL Braves

Locke was the Braves second round pick, and has very good potential on the mound. His fastball runs up to 93 and has plus potential. He's got a large frame and has what scouts call easy gas. He has a developing curveball and an improving changeup. He's going to be a late-bloomer because he's from New England, left-handed and big. All of those three things point to that. He's certainly one to watch in the future. He's also a gamer and wants the ball.

10. Adrian Cardenas, SS - GCL Phillies

Cardenas was another supplemental pick who has made an impressive debut. He showed good extra base power with solid discipline and good speed. He won't stick as a shortstop but should adept to 2B fine. Although some scouts say he will wind up at LF where his power won't play well. He looks like a guy wh should hit for gap power while maintaining a solid average. That won't cut it in left but will do nicely as 2B.

11. Cody Johnson, 1B - GCL Braves

Johnson played most of the league at 17, but it doesn't really matter. He was flat-out terrible in his pro debut. He hit .184 with 49 Ks in 114 AB. Yes. That's an issue. He did hit one home run, but the Braves were hoping for more out of their first-rounder. It's way too early to label him as a bust, but he's got a ways to go. The big deal before the draft with him is that he has a lot of holes in his swing and his pitch recognition was weak. He has prodigous power potential but right now has problems catching up to a good fastball. He's a work horse so he may be able to correct some of these flaws, but he has a ways to go.

12. Steve Kent, LHP - GCL Braves

Kent turned 17 the month before the season started. The Aussie has a fastball that runs in the high 80s presently with a big overhand curveball that shows potential and a good changeup. He's 6'0" right now, so it's not certain how much velocity he can add down the road. He might be the best Aussie pitching prospect at his age. The Braves think he's much more advanced than Damian Moss was. Kent also gets good reviews on his feel for pitching and overall makeup.

13. Tyler Robertson, LHP - GCL Twins

Robertson was the Twinkies third round pick in 2006. He has a huge 6'5" 220 frame. Right now his fastball runs in the high 80s topping out in the low 90s, but he figures to gain velocity as he matures. He's got a good curveball that could be a plus pitch down the road. The big deal with him is that his windup is truly a wonder. That's not a good thing. It may hamper his ability to increase command on his pitches and improve his velocity. The Twins could rework them, but then he will be a work in progress and a ways off.

14. Thomas Hickman, CF - GCL Marlins

Hickman didn't have great overall numbers but he showed solid discipline drawing 30 walks in 205 PAs. He did strike out 20% of the time, but it is a byproduct of being patient. It look slike this lefty has a clue at the plate. He could move to RF has he threw 90 on the mound and he's got a sweet swinging left-handed that is a linedrive machine. He also has raw power and could develop into a high on-base power machine similar to Trot Nixon.

15. Adam Coe, 3B - GCL Braves

Coe is a 3B with good present power as he hit 7 HR in 156 ABs, among the league leaders. He also hit 9 doubles and a triple. He's a very agressive hitter who tries to pull everything. He's a bulky prospect whose bulk limits his defense. He's not flexible and is a brick at third. He might wind up at a corner outfielder or first where he'll have to hit a lot.

16. Zach McAllister, RHP - GCL Yankees

McAllister gobbled up groundballs at over 30% higher than the league rate. His fastball runs around 90, 91 with potential for more and a good slider. He also has a good feel on his changeup. He's a big 6'5" kid weighing in at 230, so to see his sinking fastball jump into the low-to-mid 90s consistently would not be a shock.

17. D'Arby Myers, CF - GCL Phillies

This is a quote from BA's draft report on Myers, "Myers will need plenty of at-bats to get it at the plate." Didn't take him that long in the GCL as he hit .313 in his debut. His discipline needs a lot of work but he is as toolsy as it gets in CF. He's good excellent range in center and good speed on the bases. He should develop above average power once he fills out his 6'3" wiry frame.

18. Preston Mattingly, SS - GCL Dodgers

Mattingly hit okay in his pro debut after the Dodgers selected him with the 31st pick in the draft. However his discipline needs a lot of refinement as he drew just 9 walks in 200 PAs. He's a great athlete with good bat speed and power. He also has plus speed, but his footwork and arm all grade out as below average so he probably won't stay at SS. He could move to 3B, but his arm makes that unlikely. LF is an option, but his bat might not be that good.

19. Chad Rodgers, LHP - GCL Braves

Rodgers was the Braves' third round pick last June. He's been compared to Jeremy Sowers. Sowers' command is better but Rodgers should gain more velocity and better stamina. His sinking fastball runs in the high 80s with good movement. He can get it up to 92 when he throws his four seam. He also has a big overhand curveball and a changeup. He's very advanced at pitching, working the ball in and out and such.

20. Felix Doubront, LHP - GCL Red Sox

Doubront used a lot of finesse to overmatch most of the complex hitters. He's got a fastball that runs in the mid-to-high 80s topping out around 9 flashing an inconsistent and at times plus curveball and a good slider. He's a very skinny guy on a 6'2" frame so he projects to gain velocity as he fills out. He appears to be very advanced and has a clue about his command, so he could move rather quickly. He's one of the better lefty pitching prospects in either of the complex leagues. The key for him will be his fastball, right now his stuff doesn't project to be more than a loogy, so gaining 3-5 MPH is going to be vital for his prospect success unless his slider and curveball both are plus-plus pitches.

Chris F'ng Duffy

Chris Duffy single-handedly murdered Sean Marshall and the Cubs. He went four for four with two home runs, a walk and two stolen bases. Duffy came into the game with one career home run in roughly 350 at-bats. Go figure. Marshall didn't have it today. He couldn't get someone to swing and miss if they swung and he didn't throw the ball. When it was all said and done he gave up five runs in four innings. He was victomized by a lead-off home run by Duffy and never got it together.

Derrek Lee was given the day off and young Scott Moore made his first career start. He hit 6th and doubled in a run in the fourth inning for his first career hit. Congratulations. He then homered in the sixth, another career first. Congratulations. The Cubs pitcher who had a great game was Carlos Marmol. He came in relief for Marshall, fanned four in two hitless innings. He also got an at-bat and hit his first career home run. Congratulations. Dusty Baker realized that the pitcher the Cubs were facing was terrible and put out an equally terrible lineup. Freddie Bynum and Angel Pagan were in the lineup, going a combined 1 for 5. Aramis Ramirez also homered in the game.

Moore's homer in the sixth tied the game at 5, but Chris Duffy hit his second homer off Scott Eyre in the ninth giving the Pirates the lead. Ryan Dempster replaced Eyre and promptly gave up a home run to Xavier Nady. Dempster has now given up runs in six consecutive outings. Just by pure luck this is going to end, right?

I guess for the sake of winning we should be glad the lowly Pirates are out of here. The Cubs lost six of seven against them in the last 11 days. If we were not going for a draft pick, that would make me cringe.

No hit magic

All no hitters are pure luck, but we celebrate them. So why shouldn't I? Anibal Sanchez no-hit the Diamondbacks last night on just 103 pitches. He only struckout six batters and walked four, so I think everyone with a brain is in agreement that he was extremely lucky. Still props to the kid. Still, no props to the fans in Florida. Their team is one of the best stories in baseball and I don't care what their payroll is, support the team. They are winning! The attendance for this game was a pathetic 12,561. Terrible. Anyways, ESPN has not had the balls to show a slow motion replay of the final out. Everytime I have seen it, he looked safe by a good half step.

Tomorrow the Cubs finish up their four game set against the Pirates and try to even it up. I must ask myself if that's what I really want? I don't think it is. Anyways I want to see Sean Marshall do well. He had a good start going in his return until the sixth inning and had two fabulous starts in AAA before being re-activated. The Pirates will send Shawn Chacon to the mound. Chacon's banishment to the NL hasn't gone over well. He's pitched 21 innings and has walked 21 batters. That's good for two walks for the Cubs tomorrow.

1. 89 Kansas City Royals
2. 84 Pittsburgh Pirates
2. 84 Tampa Bay Devil Rays
4. 83 Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are a half game behind the Pirates and Devil Rays. Please remember that tiebreakers are the previous' years record so the Cubs would lose any tiebreaker if needed. There is not much draft news right now. Andrew Brackman still has not announced whether or not he will go play hoops.

Stat of the Day: Top 10 ML Pitchers in Fair RA

1. 2.98 Johan Santana, LHP - Minnesota Twins
2. 3.02 Chris Carpenter, RHP - St. Louis Cardinals
3. 3.33 Justin Verlander, RHP - Detroit Tigers
4. 3.39 Roy Oswalt, RHP - Houston Astros
5. 3.54 Bronson Arroyo, RHP - Cincinnati Reds
6. 3.57 Roy Halladay, RHP - Toronto Blue Jays
7. 3.65 Josh Johnson, RHP - Florida Marlins
8. 3.66 John Smoltz, RHP - Atlanta Braves
9. 3.67 Scott Kazmir, LHP - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
10. 3.68 Brandon Webb, RHP - Arizona Diamondbacks

Seibu Lion right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka continued his hot streak this morning for the Lions in a 4-0 win over Bobby V's Chiba Lotte Marines. Matsuzaka improved to 15-4 by allowing 3 hits in 7 innings of work striking out 9 and walking none. He had struck out 14 in his previous outing and actually struckout 6 in a row at one point in this game. Not only that, Daisuke used only 70 pitches to get through the 7 innings. That's with the nine strike outs. Do the math and that pitch count is absurdly efficient. Dai-san is going to command a hefty investment if a team wants his services in 2007, but he might just be worth it. Overall in the season he has a 2.04 ERA and a 179:30 K:BB. Yes a 179:30 K:BB. No, he's probably not in line for the Sawamura award, but he's close. The Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks' Kazumi Saito is 16-4 with a 1.77 ERA and similar strikeout totals.

We're getting Rich.

I told you guys it was going to be a low scoring performance. Quite the pitcher's duel indeed although the gem thrown by Zach Duke probably had as much to do with the Cubs anemic offense as it did his performance, but that's a different story entirely. Overall the Cubs snapped their losing streak against the Pirates by winning 7-2.

Rich Hill pitched the best game of his career today, and you know we have said that for quite a few recent starts for him. Rich pitched magnificently as he allowed just 2 runs - 1 earned - on four hits in 7.1 innings of work. He set the single game Cubs record for strikeouts by a left-hander with 11. He also minimized the walks, only allowing one. Since August 1st Hill has thrown 50 innings with an ERA of 2.70 and a 45:14 K:BB and just 36 hits allowed. There's little else to say about this performance, keep it up! Michael Wuertz and Bob Howry pitched 1.2 perfect innings in relief. What's notable is that when the Cubs had a 3 run lead in the eigth inning it was Howry who was warming up, not our boy Ryan Dempster.

The Cubs' offense was stifled for the first seven frames, as they garnished one run on a passball. Things really came together off the bullpen in the 8th inning as Derrek Lee celebrated his 31st birthday in grand slam fashion. The Cubs ended up tacking on two more runs, but the damage was done. Ryan Theriot had another great game at the plate with a couple of knocks and a run scored. The Riot has now reached base in eleven straight games. Lee, Matt Murton, Henry Blanco and Angel Pagan all had two hits on the day as well. Murton's 2 for 4 day puts his batting average up to .297. It really would be nice to see him get it up to .300. It won't mean he's good, but it's a nice thing to say.

Zach Duke had a good game as he just threw the ball over the plate and hoped the Cubs weak bats hit it softly, which they did. He only struck out three guys in his 7 innings of work, walking none. The bullpen killed the Pirates as John Grabow allowed two runs without retiring a batter and Matt Capps allowed four more runs and only retired one. Jose Castillo and Chris Duffy were the only Pirates to show any signs of life with the bat. Castillo had two knocks and Duffy reached twice.

King of the Hill

A quickee! I spent some time tonight writing scouting reports on the Arizona Summer League. Expect a final version sometime soon!

Anyways tomorrow the Cubs will send Rich Hill to the mound. I shouldn't have to tell you but Rich has by dynamite since returning to the Cubs in late July. Since August 1st he is 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA and a 34:12 K:BB in 42.2 innings of work. He's gone eight innings twice in that span and has really looked good. His last outing was a gem as he pitched 7 innings of 2 hit ball before giving up 3 hits and a run in the 8th. Hill started against the Pirates earlier this season going 7 innings striking out a season high 9 allowing 1 run on 5 hits. Expect more of the same tomorrow.

The Pirates are sending out struggling sophomore Zach Duke. Duke a couple gems against the Cubs in the first half (16 IP, 1 ER) but the Cubs got him last month as he gave up five runs in 6 innings. Duke is coming off a solid cosmetic outing. He gave up 3 runs in 7 innings to the Cardinals but failed to strikeout a batter. However, given the Cubs offensive woes, I expect tomorrow's game to be a low scoring affair. And will WGN start showing some games?

1. 88 Royals
2. 84 Devil Rays
3. 83 Cubs
4. 83 Pirates

The Cubs finally caught the Pirates, and it only took them five consecutive losses to do it. The Cubs remain a game behind the Rays in the loss column. Without Zambrano and Barrett, the Cubs might just catch them.

Stat of the Day: NL Batting Leaders in VORP:

1. 71.1 Albert Pujols, 1B - St. Louis Cardinals
2. 67.7 Miguel Cabrera, 3B - Florida Marlins
3. 65.7 Ryan Howard, 1B - Philadelphia Phillies
4. 65.1 Carlos Beltran, CF - New York Mets
5. 55.0 Alfonso Soriano, LF - Washington Nationals

Updated AZL Top 20

1. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP - AZL Brewers

Jeffress was the Brewers first pick in the 2006 draft, 16th overall. Jeffress is a big projectable righthander who throws from a low 3/4 arm angle. His fastball sits low-to-mid 90s and hits 97 with regularity late in games. His slider has the makings of a plus pitch, but his changup is a work in progress at this point. Jeffress struggled in his professional debut, but it is of no concern.

2. Hank Conger, C - AZL Angels

Conger was the Angels top pick in the draft. Conger has considerable power potential with solid contact skills for someone like him. His arm is good enough to catch in the majors but his footwork and receiving skills need work. He's similar to Daric Barton a few years back, though Conger has more power and less discipline. Conger was having a great start before getting hurt.

3. Cedric Hunter, OF - AZL Padres

Hunter was rumored to possibly be sneaking into the back end of the first round, but fell to the Padres in the third round. He's a guy with gap power and good present hitting ability. There is a question as to whether he'll have enough power for the corners, and there is a question if he's good enough defensively to play center. He torched the AZL to a tune of a .371/.467/.484.

4. Alex Liddi, 3B - AZL Mariners

Liddy could be the first big name prospect from Europe. Scouts absolutely love everything about this kid. He played most of the season as 17, showing an advanced feel for the game, which is unheard of from a 17 year old from Italy. The only hole in his bat was his contact, but it was not terrible. As he matures he should hit for solid power to go with solid batting average skills. He's a phenomenal athletic specimen and should develop into a gold glove talent at third base. He reminds a lot of scouts of a young Ryan Zimmerman, with good reason.

5. Sharloon Schoop, SS - AZL Giants

Schoop is a defensive SS, the only Giants orginazational guy better is Omar Vizquel. He was named the leagues #11 prospect last summer, saying he was a no bat great glove with crap discipline. He must have taken that to heart as he hit .310/.437/.405 with a 26:15 BB:K. His discipline shot up. He has a good chance to hit for gap power as he grows into his body, but he looks like a good one to me.

6. Jake Brigham, RHP - AZL Rangers

Brigham was taken in the sixth round of this years draft. His fastball runs in the low 90s touching 94 and a good hard biting slider. He has good command and an easy delivery. His two plus pitch potential gives him lofty upside, but he's a ways away like everyone else in the league. He pitched nicely in the league with a 3:1 K:BB and striking out a batter an inning.

7. Marcus Lemon, SS - AZL Rangers

Marcus Lemon is one of the leader type kids. He's a hard nosed player who plays his heart out every game. His potential isn't lofty but his baseball IQ and work ethic are off the charts. None of his tools are outstanding but he generates line drives well. His advanced bat tore through the AZL as he hit .310 walking 16 times in 100 plate appearances.

8. Jose Ceda, RHP - AZL Cubs

Ceda is a big dominican kid the Cubs acquired in the Todd Walker trade. He's got a great arm, touching 99 in the past. He sits in the low-to-mid 90s and has the makings of a solid breaking ball. His control is a work in progress and his ERA (3.60) wasn't spectacular but his league leading K rate of 13.4 K/9 and his hit rate of 6.7 show his dominance.

9. Brent Fisher, LHP - AZL Royals

Fisher was ranked the #18 prospect in this league last year, and flatout dominated this time striking out 98 batters in 68.1 innings walking just 19. Fisher's fringe-average stuff are an issue. His fastball runs 86-89 with great deception. His curveball and changeup are average to solid pitches. His repetoire gives him back of the bullpen potential, but his performance in the league keeps him high on the list. He's also projectable, increasing his velocity a bit this season. If he can get his fastball 89-91 he'd become a solid prospect.

10. Matt Sweeney, 3B - AZL Angels

Sweeney wasn't much of a draft prospect, but the Angels took him in the 8th round and he's been a helium prospect since. He hit .341 knocking 23 extra base hits in 170 ABs all while maintaining excellent plate discipline.

11. Carlos Peguero, IF - AZL Mariners

The third Mariner bat on the list. He's a 6'5" 19 year old with prodigous power potential. His long swing is a work in progress but his pure batspeed might have been the best in the AZL. The issue with him was contact as he struck out 49 times in 134 ABs, but knocked 7 longballs.

12. Gerardo Avila, 1B - AZL Mariners

Avila is a 20 year old who was a bit advanced for the league, but was among the league leaders in all major offensive categories. He hit .326/.369/.561 in 39 games before getting promoted to the Midwest League. His short compact swing hits for above average power. Scouts love his bat, but he's going to need some refinement.

13. Chris Huseby, RHP - AZL Cubs

The Cubs made quite a name for Huseby when they gave him a 7 figure bonus as a 11th rounder. Going into his junior season he was one of the top prospects in his age, but injured his elbow missing most of his senior season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Huseby is a big 6'4" righty whose fastball sits 90-94 with potential for more as he develops and recovers. He also has the makings of a plus hard curveball and a good feel for a straight change. Huseby didn't get much action in the AZL as the Cubs were catious with him, but he was inconsistent showing glimpes of what he could be. He finished the season with a solid 3 inning outing striking out 4 allowing one hit.

14. Rolando Pascual, RHP - AZL Brewers

Pascual was one of the premeir talents from Latin America last year. He signed with the Brewers for little over $700,000 and made his debut in the AZL. Pascual just turned 17 earlier this year and has a fastball that ran 87-93 that should gain velocity as he grows into his massive 6'6" frame. His offspeed pitch needs some work, but he's young with a big fastball. He really struggled his professional debut though.

15. Wily Peralta, RHP - AZL Brewers

While Pascual was the top international pitcher, Peralta was no slouch. Like Pascual he just turned 17 this year and has a fastball that has dialed up to 96. He isn't as projectable as Pascual and his offspeed pitches aren't as developed as Pascuals. He also struggled in his debut, but the talent's there.

16. Brent Brewer, SS - AZL Brewers

Brent Brewer is another tremendous athlete who was recruited by Florida State to play wide receiver before signing with the Brewers. He was taken 60th overall in last June's draft. He has above average power and tremendous 4.2 speed to first. He does have an issue with strikeouts that bit him in the ass in his professional debut as he had a 53:16 K:BB. His glove and arm may not let him stick at short, but he can just as easily play second or center.

17. Doug Salinas, RHP - AZL Mariners

Salinas' was a 17 year old Venezuelan who dominated the league. His fastball now has been clocked at 90, but with him it's all about projection. As he grows into his 6'4" frame he should get his fastball in the low to the mid 90s at the least. He's got clean mechanics and a bulldog agressive nature that both bode well. He also has a curve and change that are work in progresses. His dominance shows well in his line as he nearly struckout a batter an inning and held opponents to a .219 batting average.

18. Kyler Burke, OF - AZL Padres

Burke was the Padres' supplemental round pick. He's a raw toolsy outfielder with power potential. He's an incredible overall athlete so that bodes well for his future. However he struggled in his debut just hitting .209 with 56 strikeouts in 163 at bats.

19. Luis Durango, 2B - AZL Padres

The 20 year old second baseman continued his advanced approach from the 2005 VSL. He showed great discipline as he hit .378/.470.448. As you can see he has no power. He didnt homer last year or this year, but has blazing speed.

20. Henry Rodriguez, RHP - AZL Athletics

On the outside the 19 year olds stats look terrible, a 59:50 K:BB and an ERA over 7. However he had the best arm strength in the league topping out at 99 MPH and registering in the high 90s with regularity. His offspeed stuff need a lot of work. His command needs even more, but his arm strength is first class. Also, he's shown an ability to get the ball on the ground, which is quite impressive for a guy with his arm.

Honorable mention: Derrick Robinson, Rafael Dolis, Vladimir Veras, Jason Taylor, Nathan Adcock, Felix Corrasco.