Carlos Gonzalez was signed by the Arizona Diamondbacks out of Venezuela in 2002 as 16 year old. He was a solid prospect at the time, a 16 year old who oozed of power tools. The Diamondbacks thought high enough of him to send them to the Pioneer league as a 17 year old. Given his age, he hit a respectable .268/.308/.404 in 275 at bats with six home runs. The scouts in the league compared him to a young Bobby Abreu with more present power. He was the youngest okayer in the league showing soid defense and good arm and eletric potential with the bat. This was your classic Baseball America tools before stats before Double A type ranking. At the time he was a toolsy and an interest prospect but he was far from making cracking the top 10 of the Diamondbacks' farm system. My guess is he would have been around 25-30. Still all things considered - he was one to watch at the time.
In 2004 they sent the 18 year old to South Bend of the Midwest League where he struggled a bit in 51 ABs. He broke his hand after 14 games and was sent down to short-season Yakima of the Northwest League to strut his stuff. He showed a bit of improvement overall but ended with a similar line with about 20 points of BA added to his OBP and SLG to hit .273/.327/.427. Overall he hit .274 with 10 HRs, 19 2B, 23 walks and 83 strikeouts. His discipline was becoming a concern as he had walked 39 times in just over 650 PAs compared to over 140 strikeouts. Still he was a ways off and he his pure tools were among the best in the minors. Baseball America ranked him the third best prospect in the league. He showed plus power, and a very good throwing arm. His biggest problem with the bat was his discpline, although he adjusted in the second half of the season and became much better at hitting breaking balls. He was still not ranked in the Diamondbacks' top 10 prospects, and was near the bottom of the top 20. He had great tools, but his tools never equated into production and he was four years away from the majors, at best.
2005 was a breakout season for Gonzalez. He torched the Midwest League for 18 homers and a .307/.371/.489 line as a 19 year old. He also improved his plate discipline considerably striking out 'only' 86 times and drawing 48 walks. He flashed his usual plus power potential and his approach at the plate continued to blossom. His only not above average tool is his speed, but he made up for it with good routes and reaction in right field. Of course his arm was plus. One scout said he's like Carlos Beltran when Betran is good. He's not the runner that Beltran is but he has a much better bat at this stage. He was rated the number 1 prospect in the league, ahead of notables including Homer Bailey. He also made his debut in the Diamondbacks top 10 ranking number four - an impressive number four at that. One scout said he was the best prospect he's seen in the league since Miguel Cabrera. Overall he was ranked the #32 prospect in all of baseball a very lofty rating for a teenager.
Gonzalez started 2006 in the California League playing in the offensive haven known as Lancaster. Lancaster is a park that is plus everything for the league. Roughly +20% park factors in runs, hits, walks and -20% in strikeouts. It's HR park factor is an astronomical +64%. He hit .300/.356/.563 overall in the Cali league. He drew 30 walks with 21 home runs and struck out 104 times. He got a late season promotion to Tennessee of the Southern League and struggled mighly, though he hit 2 home runs and kept his walk rate and strike out rates fine, so I don't have too much concern there. Not only that, but he got hit in the kneck with a pitch right before getting called up.
So overall in Gonzalez we have an average defensive rightfielder with a plus arm. He projects to be able to hit 30 home runs at the major league level while maintaining a .300 batting average. His walk rates have fluctuated throughout his career and his strike out rate could be a concern down the road. That leads me to believe he can be a guy who hits roughly .300/.350/.550 in his prime, a few years above and down of course. That sort of production would be very good out of a right fielder. Of course he is just 20 so he could improve his discipline and power potenial considerably, but there are concerns. Especially this season as noted the California League is a hitter friendly league and Lancaster might be the most hitter friendly environment in the league. The splits show this considerably. He hit a whopping .364/.416/.697 at Lancaster and hit a woeful .239/.295/.433 on the road. He had almost the exact same amount of plate appearances in both, but hit 15 of his 21 homers at home. His groundball, linedrive and flyball rates where almost identical too. He had a GB% of 37% on the road, and at home it was 38%. His line drive percentage splits were about the same too - 17% and 15% respectively. All in all it's hard to see how much of it was him and how much was park.
It's still way too early in his career to look at splits to right him off, but it certainly is something worth mentioning. He's still an elite outfield propect and will find himself in most top 25 prospect lists this offseason and is probably the second best prospect in the Diamondbacks system behind Justin Upton.
In 2004 they sent the 18 year old to South Bend of the Midwest League where he struggled a bit in 51 ABs. He broke his hand after 14 games and was sent down to short-season Yakima of the Northwest League to strut his stuff. He showed a bit of improvement overall but ended with a similar line with about 20 points of BA added to his OBP and SLG to hit .273/.327/.427. Overall he hit .274 with 10 HRs, 19 2B, 23 walks and 83 strikeouts. His discipline was becoming a concern as he had walked 39 times in just over 650 PAs compared to over 140 strikeouts. Still he was a ways off and he his pure tools were among the best in the minors. Baseball America ranked him the third best prospect in the league. He showed plus power, and a very good throwing arm. His biggest problem with the bat was his discpline, although he adjusted in the second half of the season and became much better at hitting breaking balls. He was still not ranked in the Diamondbacks' top 10 prospects, and was near the bottom of the top 20. He had great tools, but his tools never equated into production and he was four years away from the majors, at best.
2005 was a breakout season for Gonzalez. He torched the Midwest League for 18 homers and a .307/.371/.489 line as a 19 year old. He also improved his plate discipline considerably striking out 'only' 86 times and drawing 48 walks. He flashed his usual plus power potential and his approach at the plate continued to blossom. His only not above average tool is his speed, but he made up for it with good routes and reaction in right field. Of course his arm was plus. One scout said he's like Carlos Beltran when Betran is good. He's not the runner that Beltran is but he has a much better bat at this stage. He was rated the number 1 prospect in the league, ahead of notables including Homer Bailey. He also made his debut in the Diamondbacks top 10 ranking number four - an impressive number four at that. One scout said he was the best prospect he's seen in the league since Miguel Cabrera. Overall he was ranked the #32 prospect in all of baseball a very lofty rating for a teenager.
Gonzalez started 2006 in the California League playing in the offensive haven known as Lancaster. Lancaster is a park that is plus everything for the league. Roughly +20% park factors in runs, hits, walks and -20% in strikeouts. It's HR park factor is an astronomical +64%. He hit .300/.356/.563 overall in the Cali league. He drew 30 walks with 21 home runs and struck out 104 times. He got a late season promotion to Tennessee of the Southern League and struggled mighly, though he hit 2 home runs and kept his walk rate and strike out rates fine, so I don't have too much concern there. Not only that, but he got hit in the kneck with a pitch right before getting called up.
So overall in Gonzalez we have an average defensive rightfielder with a plus arm. He projects to be able to hit 30 home runs at the major league level while maintaining a .300 batting average. His walk rates have fluctuated throughout his career and his strike out rate could be a concern down the road. That leads me to believe he can be a guy who hits roughly .300/.350/.550 in his prime, a few years above and down of course. That sort of production would be very good out of a right fielder. Of course he is just 20 so he could improve his discipline and power potenial considerably, but there are concerns. Especially this season as noted the California League is a hitter friendly league and Lancaster might be the most hitter friendly environment in the league. The splits show this considerably. He hit a whopping .364/.416/.697 at Lancaster and hit a woeful .239/.295/.433 on the road. He had almost the exact same amount of plate appearances in both, but hit 15 of his 21 homers at home. His groundball, linedrive and flyball rates where almost identical too. He had a GB% of 37% on the road, and at home it was 38%. His line drive percentage splits were about the same too - 17% and 15% respectively. All in all it's hard to see how much of it was him and how much was park.
It's still way too early in his career to look at splits to right him off, but it certainly is something worth mentioning. He's still an elite outfield propect and will find himself in most top 25 prospect lists this offseason and is probably the second best prospect in the Diamondbacks system behind Justin Upton.
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