Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Daric Barton

Daric Barton started out as a catcher coming out of Southern California, a national hotbed of high school baseball talent. He was rated the 72nd best prospect in the draft by Baseball America. He was rated the second-best pure hitter from the high school ranks, but did not rnak in the top five for power nor the top three for strike-zone judgement. In retrospect, the plate discipline should have been a strength. The problem was not that he could not hit. He had everything that you would want in a hitter, but his defensive skills behind the plate weren't very good. He was a young draftee, just seventeen when he signed. The St. Louis Cardinals took him with the 28th overall pick in the draft and bought him out of his Cal-State Fullerton commitment for $1,000,000.

Barton signed early enough to appear for Johnson City in the Appy League. He showed his considerable hitting ability, hitting .294/.420/.424 in 209 PAs. The power wasn't very good, he homered four times and doubled ten times. However he had a great walk rate and did not strike out too much, a 37:48 ratio. It would be the last time he's had more K's than BB's any level. He remained behind the dish though, and prompted Baseball America to rate him as the fifth best prospect in the league. His defense was good enough to keep his projection behind the plate. His power and hitting ability played well and his discipline was tremendous. He did enough to debut at #8 for the Cardinals top 10.

For his first full season the Cardinals sent Barton to Low A Peoria. He was limited to just 90 games due to injuries, but he continued to show a plus bat as he hit .313/.445/.511 hitting 13 homers and 23 doubles. He drew 69 walks compared to just 44 strikeouts. All-in-all a great debut for any prospect. He was rated the #2 prospect in the league, behind Brian Dopirak. Various scouts called him the best pure hitter in the minor leagues. Baseball America also noted while he was a count worker, he was not a passive hitter. This is because despite the 100 BB potential, he's never going to strikeout more than 60 or so times a season. Their were still doubts about his catching ability. Earlier in his career his arm rated as above average, now it was not. He wasn't athletic enough to move elsewhere besides 1B, so he gets a bit of a shaft similar to the Royals' Billy Butler.

On December 18th, 2004 Billy Beane made one of the best trades of his career. He shipped out overrated pitcher Mark Mulder to the Cardinals for Barton, Dan Haren and Kiko Calero. It's no shock that Beane has a lustful attraction to Barton. By this time, on-base percentage had become quite expensive on the open free agent market. Beane then had to get his on-base driven players through trades. Barton's plate discipline is plus-plus, so it was a no-brainer. Dan Haren and Kiko Calero were throw-ins. Haren's developed into a top 10 American League pitcher. Mark Mulder has sucked. Hard. Barton was rated the best prospect in the Oakland organization. He was also rated the 32nd best prosect in the minor leagues.

The A's sent Barton to High A Stockton of the California League. They also moved him to first base and designated hitter full-time. Barton went off hitting .318/.438/.469 in 79 games. He also drew 62 walks compared to 49 strikeouts. THe 20 year old got a July promotion to AA Midland. He nearly hit identical. He jacked 5 homers with 20 2B in route to a .316/.410/.491 line with 35 walks compared to 30 strike outs. Barton was eligible to be ranked in both the Texas League and the California league. He ranked #3 and #6 respectively. Once again he was the best prospect in the A's organization and the #28 prospect in baseball. However, he no longer caught. It's quite a bit to move from a catcher all the way down to first base.

For the 2006 season Barton was shipped to AAA as a 21 year old. For the first time in his career Barton has faced quite a bit of adversity. He only got into 43 games and hit a modest .259/.389/.395. The walks and discipline were still there. His power was about the same it had been at other stops, he just got a few fewer singles. However in late May he hyperextended his elbow and eventually it was diagnosed as a fracture. He missed the rest of the season. He had a great April and struggled in May. It was probably just a bad hot streak for a couple weeks that weighted highly in his final line due to the limited sample size. I'm not worried about this myself. Especially when you consider that his discipline remained there. God forbid a 21 year old having an OBP of .389 in Triple A. Presuming he qualifies Barton is going to be one of the top prospects ranked in the Pacific Coast League. He's probably going to fall a bit in the overall rankings. Not because of what he did, but what others did. He's probably around 40 in the BA list. He'll be higher in the Baseball Prospectus rankings. Different tastes.

So in Barton we have a 1B/DH. He hits for a high average and draws gobs of walks. He's capable of hitting .300/.420 consistently at the major league level. However his power has not developed. It's quite a debated question. His short compact stroke and strength allow him to have 25-30 home run power, but it hasn't played. Due to this some people think it's more in the range of 15-20 homers. Either way he projects to have 40-50 doubles a season. His pitch recognition is fine. There are no holes in this part of his bat. He's a lefty who hits leftys well. He's always hit them as well as righties in the minors. He's not a pull hitter. Some people feel that his lack of power production comes from him preffering to hit the ball to the opposite field - something he's great at. Perhaps as he matures, his power will develop. Either way, bottom line he's going to hit .300/.420/.480 with good consistency. If his power develops at all, he's going to be VERY good. Who is his best comparison? Probably at the minimum a Sean Casey type hitter with a lot more walks. The best comparison might just be a left-handed Edgar Martinez. Especially if his power develops.

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