As a high school senior, Hunter Pence was undrafted and went to Texarkana Community College in Texas. As a frehman he hit .395 with 12 home runs and 33 stolen bases. Because he wasn't under control by any major league teams as a draft and follow he was eligible again the next season. He wasn't one of the top fifty Juco prospects in the 2002 draft by BA, and was drafted by the Brewers in the 40th round. He declined to sign and enrolled in the University of Texas at Arlington. Here he continued to demonstrate his superb hitting ability as .347/.406/.561 with 8 homers his sophomore year and .395/.441/.616 his junior season. He showed pretty good developing power and a good approach at the plate. Pence was eligible again for the 2004 draft after his junior season. He was not regarded as a top five round talent by Baseball America and was ranked as the #26 draft prospect in Texas and was projected to go in rounds 6-10. They said that Pence was a good hitter with good power and plate coverage, but his arm strength limited him to left field. He also had a unique swing, something that BA would hang over his head for awhile. Houston did not have a first round pick that year, and they used the 64th pick in the draft to nab Pence. It seemed like an overdraft at the time but it has worked out. Astros scouting director David Lackey defended the pick saying, "He's a plus runner, has plus power, but his bat has a ways to go." He did concede that his defense was limited to left.
The Astros are notorious for their slow advancement rate of their prospects, and Pence was no different. He signed rather quickly and was assigned to Tri City of the New York Penn League. He hit .296/.369/.518 with 8 homers in 199 ABs. He had a good debut, but was one of the oldest players in the league. Baseball America named Pence the 13th best prospect in the league, saying his power played well and had good plate discipline, but of course he's limited to left field. Baseball America then ranked him as the 10th prospect in the Astros' system. They said that he had quick hands, plus raw power and good control of the strike zone. His swing of course was not pretty. All in all they said he had a bat for left field, and liked him quite a bit.
The Astros sent the 22 year old to Low A Lexington to start 2005. In 200 ABs he hit 25 homers hitting .338 overall slugging around .650. He got a late season promotion to High A Salem hitting .305 with only 6 homers in 151 AB. He slugged under .500. Pence was eligible for the Sally League and Carolina League top 20s. He ranked 15th in the Sally League despite his performane. This was due to his old age for the league, and a very stacked league. They said he had arguably the most raw power in the leaugue and one of the best pure hitting prospects in the league. However BA and some scouts balked at his swing and it was one of the reasons he was ranked so low. For the Carolina League he ranked 18th where once again they plauded his power but his unorthodox swing concerned them. Still, BA ranked him as the 6th best prospect in the Astros system and left him off their Top 100 prospects.
Pence spent the entire 2006 season at Double A Corpus Christi in the Texas League. He hit .283/.357/.533 in 136 games hitting 28 homers, 8 triples and 31 doubles. He also swiped 17 bases. His performance was actually better than that. Corpus Christi's home park plays like a very good pitcher's park, so he was affected there. That raw line translated into a .304 EqA for the league. The splits also bear that out for him. He hit .259/.343/.458 with 10 homers at home and .305/.371/.603 with 18 homers on the road. I should note that the homer rate on the road doesn't mean he's a 36 homer guy. 21.4% of his contacts at home were outfield flyballs and 30.4% were on the road. He should hit for more power because of this, of course it is still a factor. His HR/F rate was 5.0% higher on the road so if you adjust that to home, 12 homers at home, so he's more like a 30 home run hitter. Of course his average and such were also affected by the park.
Overall his tools are pretty good. He does have a good bat who looks to me like a guy who can hit .280/.350 with 25 homers a year. He doesn't have the jaw dropping power to hit 35-40 homers a season, nor does he have the discipline to walk 90 times a year and have an OBP over .400. He doesn't strikeout too much, but it's more because of his approach than his swing. He's a fairly agressive hitter who loves to hit fastballs. The concern in the past was that advanced pitchers would take advantage of the odd hitch in his swing and burn him, but that has not happened yet and if it did not happen in AA, it probably won't happent. However if he's going to make it, it's going to be his bat that carries him. As noted above he's a terrible defensive player. He's got decent speed but runs terrible routs and has a lousy arm. He's a capable hitter overall, but I don't see him developing into an elite leftfielder because he won't have the great on base percentages or the great power, although Pence's pull power plays well at Minute Maid Park. He's a great fit for the home park.
Pence is going to find himself near the top of the Houston Astros' prospect list, probably between 2-4. He's going to find himself somewhere in the middle of most top 100s, 40-60 and should find himself near the top of the Texas League rankings.
The Astros are notorious for their slow advancement rate of their prospects, and Pence was no different. He signed rather quickly and was assigned to Tri City of the New York Penn League. He hit .296/.369/.518 with 8 homers in 199 ABs. He had a good debut, but was one of the oldest players in the league. Baseball America named Pence the 13th best prospect in the league, saying his power played well and had good plate discipline, but of course he's limited to left field. Baseball America then ranked him as the 10th prospect in the Astros' system. They said that he had quick hands, plus raw power and good control of the strike zone. His swing of course was not pretty. All in all they said he had a bat for left field, and liked him quite a bit.
The Astros sent the 22 year old to Low A Lexington to start 2005. In 200 ABs he hit 25 homers hitting .338 overall slugging around .650. He got a late season promotion to High A Salem hitting .305 with only 6 homers in 151 AB. He slugged under .500. Pence was eligible for the Sally League and Carolina League top 20s. He ranked 15th in the Sally League despite his performane. This was due to his old age for the league, and a very stacked league. They said he had arguably the most raw power in the leaugue and one of the best pure hitting prospects in the league. However BA and some scouts balked at his swing and it was one of the reasons he was ranked so low. For the Carolina League he ranked 18th where once again they plauded his power but his unorthodox swing concerned them. Still, BA ranked him as the 6th best prospect in the Astros system and left him off their Top 100 prospects.
Pence spent the entire 2006 season at Double A Corpus Christi in the Texas League. He hit .283/.357/.533 in 136 games hitting 28 homers, 8 triples and 31 doubles. He also swiped 17 bases. His performance was actually better than that. Corpus Christi's home park plays like a very good pitcher's park, so he was affected there. That raw line translated into a .304 EqA for the league. The splits also bear that out for him. He hit .259/.343/.458 with 10 homers at home and .305/.371/.603 with 18 homers on the road. I should note that the homer rate on the road doesn't mean he's a 36 homer guy. 21.4% of his contacts at home were outfield flyballs and 30.4% were on the road. He should hit for more power because of this, of course it is still a factor. His HR/F rate was 5.0% higher on the road so if you adjust that to home, 12 homers at home, so he's more like a 30 home run hitter. Of course his average and such were also affected by the park.
Overall his tools are pretty good. He does have a good bat who looks to me like a guy who can hit .280/.350 with 25 homers a year. He doesn't have the jaw dropping power to hit 35-40 homers a season, nor does he have the discipline to walk 90 times a year and have an OBP over .400. He doesn't strikeout too much, but it's more because of his approach than his swing. He's a fairly agressive hitter who loves to hit fastballs. The concern in the past was that advanced pitchers would take advantage of the odd hitch in his swing and burn him, but that has not happened yet and if it did not happen in AA, it probably won't happent. However if he's going to make it, it's going to be his bat that carries him. As noted above he's a terrible defensive player. He's got decent speed but runs terrible routs and has a lousy arm. He's a capable hitter overall, but I don't see him developing into an elite leftfielder because he won't have the great on base percentages or the great power, although Pence's pull power plays well at Minute Maid Park. He's a great fit for the home park.
Pence is going to find himself near the top of the Houston Astros' prospect list, probably between 2-4. He's going to find himself somewhere in the middle of most top 100s, 40-60 and should find himself near the top of the Texas League rankings.
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