Thursday, September 07, 2006

GCL Top 20 Prospects

1. Clayton Kershaw, LHP - GCL Dodgers
Kershaw was the first high school player selected in June and he surely didn't disappoint. He had a 54:5 K:BB and a sub 2.00 ERA. To be honest, I am shocked that hitters batted over .200 considering those 54 K's came in under 40 innings. Kershaw's fastball tops out at 96 sitting in the low 90s. He's also got a big curveball that's a plus pitch as well. He's one of the finest left-handed prospects in the minors, quite possibly only Donnie Veal, Andrew Miller and fellow Dodger Scott Elbert grade out higher.
2. Kyle Drabek, RHP - GCL Phillies
The son of a Cy Young award winner struggled in his pro debut. His ratios were out of whack and he got torched. Still his natural stuff cannot be denied. His fastball runs 92-96 topping out in the high 90s. His spike curve and sliders also flash plus potential. He's not very projectable because he is listed at a very generous 6'0" but his present stuff is already on the top of charts. He does have makeup issues, and I do not know if they played a role in his struggles in the GCL. He also could have had a tired arm since he sent his team to the #1 National ranking through mid June. It was only six games so we can't read too much into the numbers.
3. Angel Reyes, LHP - GCL Yankees
Reyes has tremendous left-handed stuff. His fastball sits 91-93 topping out at 95. He flashes a plus curveball, and a developing slider and change. He's shown command, poise and everything. His stuff could be plus-plus down the road. The only issue is his size. He's only 5'11" 170 so he isn't very projectable but much like Kyle Drabek is present stuff is undeniable.
4. Dellin Betances, RHP - GCL Yankees
Betances proved too much for the GCL. His fastball has touched mid 90s in the past and sat in the low 90s in the GCL. Given his height (listed at 6'7") he's a good bet to gain velocity as he matures. His curveball has flashed potential and he's still supposed to be pretty raw. His pure stuff simply overmatched GCL hitters. Low A Charelston will be the first test on how raw he is.
5. Chris Parmelee, LF - GCL Twins
Parmelee is an advanced high school draftee for the Twins. He shows above average hitting tools across the board. That includes discipline, power, average the works. His speed is a little below average but he has more than enough arm strength to play RF or LF. His advanced play from Southern California baseball proved too much for the GCL as he was among the leaders in HR, SLG and OPS.
6. Chris Marrero, OF - GCL Nationals
Marrero did not hme in his pro debut, but the 2006 first rounder has legitimate 70 power and managed to hit 9 doubles in 81 ABs, however he did strike out 19 times. His tools grade out as average or higher acress the board. He should be able to stay at third, but may have to move to first or left down the road, but his power potential plays at either position.
7. Jason Place, CF - GCL Red Sox
Place was taken in the first round of the draft and had a solid debut. He hit well overall, but was very patient at the plate. In 130 PAs he struck out 35 times and walked 17 times. The strikeouts are not a surprise but the walks were. He's a five tool guy with 70 power and plus-plus arm strength in the outfield. The best major league comp right now would be Jeff Francoeur with a little more discipline.
8. Steven Evarts, LHP - GCL Braves
Evarts is a lefty whose fastball tops out around 93. He has good pitchability and makeup and is projectable. His changeup is a 70 pitch and acts like a screwball. The key to him will be getting out lefties. His curveballs are just dreadful, and his armside run on his change up won't be effective against advanced left-handed hitters.
9. Jeff Locke, LHP - GCL Braves
Locke was the Braves second round pick, and has very good potential on the mound. His fastball runs up to 93 and has plus potential. He's got a large frame and has what scouts call easy gas. He has a developing curveball and an improving changeup. He's going to be a late-bloomer because he's from New England, left-handed and big. All of those three things point to that. He's certainly one to watch in the future. He's also a gamer and wants the ball.
10. Adrian Cardenas, SS - GCL Phillies
Cardenas was another supplemental pick who has made an impressive debut. He showed good extra base power with solid discipline and good speed. He won't stick as a shortstop but should adept to 2B fine. Although some scouts say he will wind up at LF where his power won't play well. He looks like a guy wh should hit for gap power while maintaining a solid average. That won't cut it in left but will do nicely as 2B.
11. Cody Johnson, 1B - GCL Braves
Johnson played most of the league at 17, but it doesn't really matter. He was flat-out terrible in his pro debut. He hit .184 with 49 Ks in 114 AB. Yes. That's an issue. He did hit one home run, but the Braves were hoping for more out of their first-rounder. It's way too early to label him as a bust, but he's got a ways to go. The big deal before the draft with him is that he has a lot of holes in his swing and his pitch recognition was weak. He has prodigous power potential but right now has problems catching up to a good fastball. He's a work horse so he may be able to correct some of these flaws, but he has a ways to go.
12. Steve Kent, LHP - GCL Braves
Kent turned 17 the month before the season started. The Aussie has a fastball that runs in the high 80s presently with a big overhand curveball that shows potential and a good changeup. He's 6'0" right now, so it's not certain how much velocity he can add down the road. He might be the best Aussie pitching prospect at his age. The Braves think he's much more advanced than Damian Moss was. Kent also gets good reviews on his feel for pitching and overall makeup.
13. Tyler Robertson, LHP - GCL Twins
Robertson was the Twinkies third round pick in 2006. He has a huge 6'5" 220 frame. Right now his fastball runs in the high 80s topping out in the low 90s, but he figures to gain velocity as he matures. He's got a good curveball that could be a plus pitch down the road. The big deal with him is that his windup is truly a wonder. That's not a good thing. It may hamper his ability to increase command on his pitches and improve his velocity. The Twins could rework them, but then he will be a work in progress and a ways off.
14. Thomas Hickman, CF - GCL Marlins
Hickman didn't have great overall numbers but he showed solid discipline drawing 30 walks in 205 PAs. He did strike out 20% of the time, but it is a byproduct of being patient. It look slike this lefty has a clue at the plate. He could move to RF has he threw 90 on the mound and he's got a sweet swinging left-handed that is a linedrive machine. He also has raw power and could develop into a high on-base power machine similar to Trot Nixon.
15. Adam Coe, 3B - GCL Braves
Coe is a 3B with good present power as he hit 7 HR in 156 ABs, among the league leaders. He also hit 9 doubles and a triple. He's a very agressive hitter who tries to pull everything. He's a bulky prospect whose bulk limits his defense. He's not flexible and is a brick at third. He might wind up at a corner outfielder or first where he'll have to hit a lot.
16. Zach McAllister, RHP - GCL Yankees
McAllister gobbled up groundballs at over 30% higher than the league rate. His fastball runs around 90, 91 with potential for more and a good slider. He also has a good feel on his changeup. He's a big 6'5" kid weighing in at 230, so to see his sinking fastball jump into the low-to-mid 90s consistently would not be a shock.
17. D'Arby Myers, CF - GCL Phillies
This is a quote from BA's draft report on Myers, "Myers will need plenty of at-bats to get it at the plate." Didn't take him that long in the GCL as he hit .313 in his debut. His discipline needs a lot of work but he is as toolsy as it gets in CF. He's good excellent range in center and good speed on the bases. He should develop above average power once he fills out his 6'3" wiry frame.
18. Preston Mattingly, SS - GCL Dodgers
Mattingly hit okay in his pro debut after the Dodgers selected him with the 31st pick in the draft. However his discipline needs a lot of refinement as he drew just 9 walks in 200 PAs. He's a great athlete with good bat speed and power. He also has plus speed, but his footwork and arm all grade out as below average so he probably won't stay at SS. He could move to 3B, but his arm makes that unlikely. LF is an option, but his bat might not be that good.
19. Chad Rodgers, LHP - GCL Braves
Rodgers was the Braves' third round pick last June. He's been compared to Jeremy Sowers. Sowers' command is better but Rodgers should gain more velocity and better stamina. His sinking fastball runs in the high 80s with good movement. He can get it up to 92 when he throws his four seam. He also has a big overhand curveball and a changeup. He's very advanced at pitching, working the ball in and out and such.
20. Felix Doubront, LHP - GCL Red Sox
Doubront used a lot of finesse to overmatch most of the complex hitters. He's got a fastball that runs in the mid-to-high 80s topping out around 9 flashing an inconsistent and at times plus curveball and a good slider. He's a very skinny guy on a 6'2" frame so he projects to gain velocity as he fills out. He appears to be very advanced and has a clue about his command, so he could move rather quickly. He's one of the better lefty pitching prospects in either of the complex leagues. The key for him will be his fastball, right now his stuff doesn't project to be more than a loogy, so gaining 3-5 MPH is going to be vital for his prospect success unless his slider and curveball both are plus-plus pitches.

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