The Marquis to Success

In a word, this rant (or blogpost as some of you people like to call it) can be summarized as idiotic. The Man, Jim Hendry decided that it was a good move signing Jason Marquis for three years and twenty-one million dollars. I can't even begin to describe how bad this is financially. It is no secret that Marquis sucks, but magically he won fourteen games last season and that's, sadly, a stat that Hendry pays attention to. Marquis had a WHIP over 1.50 and an ERA over 6.00. Yet, somehow our brilliant GM decides to give him a contract worth seven million a year annually.

JH validated this by saying that "He was going to get $20 to $21 million from three or four different [teams]; that was a definite." Well JH, if everyone jumped off a cliff would you? I guess yes, because you just did. JH dug himself further into the hole by arguing that "a lot of precedent [was] set way before Jason [Marquis]. Adam Eaton got $8 million [a year], and Gil Meche got $11 million [a year], and there were a lot of people in between. Certainly over a three-year look back, Jason's statistics, and wins, certainly validate that kind of a salary."

Wins? Obviously there was a significantly added advantage that Jason Marquis on his win column over some 'lesser' pitchers like the aforementioned Adam Eaton: Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen. One of these days JH is going to realize that there are two parts to each baseball game, run production and run prevention. Pitchers (usually) only impact the prevention part of the equation, and defense affects prevention so he's factoring in on less than half of the games. Marquis can hit, but that does not negate the six plus earned run average he had.

Also, one of the most retarded things that can be done is project ERA using ERA. It's a statistic with a very high amount of volatility from year to year. Also, it's not a true indication of how good a pitcher produces. The Cardinals are renowned for having one of the better defenses in baseball the last few seasons, and most GMs don't seem to account for defense on a pitcher's ERA. Also ERA in it of itself is flawed. Generally speaking errors are relatively predictable based on things like GB rates, etc. RA is much better and using RA for Marquis seems more useful considering his (prior) high groundball tendencies.

Looking at RA for 2006 is pointless, he's terrible no matter how you slice it. Looking at RA for 2005 shows him to be a little below average RA+ wise relative to the suggestion that his ERA+ makes (103). Regardless, he was lucky. There are essentially three things that go along with projections for pitchers. First, strikeout rates. The ability to limit balls in play cannot go underestimated. Due to the nature of a BABIP, the batting average on a strike out is zero. The batting average on a dribbler in the infield is over .250. Secondly, walk rates. Walks can be a useful tool in the NL, but certainly not in the American League as there isn't a pitcher. Still, putting runners on base in any situation is stupid. Finally, groundball rates do matter as they are nearly directly tied to flyball rates which connect to home run output.

In order to succeed in the majors, you usually need to possess two of the three at a good rate. Sometimes your high K pitchers can get on by just an elite K rate that's several standard deviations above the mean. Marquis on the other hand has seemingly possessed none of them for most of his career. Marquis' strikeout rate has been below average for his entire career. It's not a new development and it has continued. Marquis' walk rates have been below average for most of his career. He did have some nice GB rates in 2005 and 2004, but he didn't possess that in this season. Obviously when you have none of the three you won't last long in the majors. IF Larry Rothschild found the flaw in his sinker, then I'll concede that he can have that skill back somewhat. It's not a 95th percentile skill, but 80th which is pretty good. However, he's probably never going to acquire the other two - which are more important. The prognosis based on that isn't good. His ERA is probably going to be in the high fours and damn close to five.

Now, last season we had guys like Sean Marshall, Angel Guzman and others combine for worse numbers than five ERA's. But once again we shouldn't look at that to make our decision. Sean Marshall actually outproduced Marquis last season in ERA, and is 24 years old and will get less than $400,000 next season. Angel Guzman bottomed out last season. He showed flashes of dominance and certainly had the stuff to survive in the majors - no one doubts that. Given the circumstances he was fine. He essentially was out for two season due to injuries, and then made the jump from AA to MLB. It's hard to make that jump without missing two seasons. A rocky beginning to his career should have been expected. However on the triple a circuit he was dominant. And he's continued that run of success into the winter season in VWL where he currently sports a nifty 21:4 K:BB.

At the bottom end Guzman probably has an ERA around 5.15 next sason with potential for a lot more. If he's at 5.15 and you factor in "less" durabitlity which means decent RPs coming in an for an extra inning, that combined ERA in Marquis timeframe of 4.90 would be the same. Guzman is also a great breakout candidate this season and we choked him off for this year by signing Marquis.

Terrible.

Alfonso Soriano

Dammit Jim, you really did not listen to me. It was not a very good signing. The Cubs could have spent just as much money as they did for Soriano and Mark DeRosa and signed Julio Lugo and Ray Durham. They would have gotten about twice as much of an increase in runs that way. But oh well.

Well, there's one thing about the Soriano that is helpful. It's backloaded. In the new CBA the minimum salary is going to go up by about seven percent on average each year for the next three seasons. Over long hauls this has mirrored both the average salary and average payroll growth. Since the 2002 season the latter figures have had annual growth rates around four percent. Given the market this season, I'd say that's going to go up significantly with marginal players getting eight figures. For simplicity purposes I am going to average the figures to get an estimate of the price index annual growth rates for major league baseball players over the length of the Soriano contract. They average to about 5.98%.

Soriano got eight million dollars the day he signed the contract, I don't believe the Cubs spread out the payment of his signing bonus, so it's relavent. It doesn't even go on the 2007 payroll. Signing bonuses and contract buyouts do not go in the payroll nor are they subject to the luxury tax. At this point, for all intents and purposes the Soriano deal is eight years and 128 million, still a large chunk of change. Soriano is officially making nine million next season, which in 2006 dollar terms would be about $8,500,000. In the sense of one year it doesn't make that big of a deal. However, since the deal is severely backloaded with him making 18 million a year the last five years of the contract - none of them are worth over fifteen million in 2006 deal terms. In fact the eighteen million he is due in 2014 is worth less than Kerry Wood's 2006 salary. The entire value of the contract is worth less than $100 million over the course of the contract.

Of course this says nothing about the value (or lackthereof) his contract is. It's just an analysis to show how signing players to backloaded contracts in this sense are good. Also the net present value of the contract isn't 136 million - or 128 however you want to look at it. It's about 108 million, which of course is a lot. On the other side of the coin, we have Carlos Lee's contract. It's backloaded, but only as a deal that's short. In real terms, Lee is going to make more each season than Soriano except 2007. The oh wow shock value impact (not adjusting for baseball inflation) for AS contract is over 30 million, but under 20 million for Carlos Lee. That said, Carlos Lee isn't signed for 2013 or 2014 which makes a difference.

Cleaning House

It's been a long long time. I've been consumed with a little thing called Final Fantasy XII, but of course. It should be all fine and dandy from here on out. There are a lot of things to catch up on!

First of all my thoughts on the news of today. The Cubs traded David Aardsma to the White Sox for Neal Cotts. I am a bit torn on the move. I thought Aardmsa turned the corner and was well on his way developing into a good middle reliever the second half of the season. From late August on he might have been our best reliever. Cotts is a big lefty with decent stuff. He was the exact opposite of Aardsma last season and was similar to Scott Eyre. He had a phenomenal 2005 season and was well on his way of doing it again in 2006 before he flat out fell on his face in August and September. He falled hard. There's a pretty good chance that he bounces back to being a fine lefty reliever. The only question is why? Why do we need another lefty reliever. We have Eyre, Will Ohman and the severely underrated Clay Rapada waiting in the wings. Of course one of the first two is a lock to be traded in some deal. The rumors have Eyre going to Cleveland in a package for either Jake Westbrook or Cliff Lee. If this move makes Scott Eyre more expendable and increases the likelihood of Westbrook coming to Chicago I am all for it. If this move makes Scott Eyre more expendable and increases the likelihood of Cliff Lee coming to Chicago I am all against it.

Next bit of older news, the Cubs signed Mark DeRosa to a three year contract worth $13 million to play second for us. This is a move I could defend if he was going to platoon with Jacque Jones in right and be a super utility player, but we've got a similar player that costs $300,000 in Ryan Theriot. This is a terrible deal. We're paying a guy over $4,000,000 who has a career EqA that's below average. I take that back, we're paying two two guys like that. On the outside this looks like a terrible deal, and it does in the inside as well. The guy's turning 32 before the start of the season too.

Next bit of even older news, the Cubs re-signed Kerry Wood to an incentive laden 1 year deal with a base salary of $1.75 million. Now that is a good move. We had a logjam in our bullpen, but it's a guy who could potentially be the best closer in the league. I really hope we don't use him that way and utilize him as the classic relief ace. Where he would come in during the 7th inning and shut the door. He wouldn't be available every night that way, but we'd have plenty of other quality guys who could close out games like Bob Howry and Michael Wuertz. Also, kudos to Kerry being a standup guy and seriously signing where his heart and desires were. He deserves better.

And finally for the oldest news, the Cubs re-signed Aramis Ramirez to a huge contract worth 75 million. With his lackluster defense, the Cubs probably overpaid. but they have the resources and certainly needed him more than most, so it is justified. He probably would have gotten even more from the Angels, so I'll take it.

All in all Jimbo is three for four this offseason. Right now, with predicted arbitration figures totalling $12 million for Carlos Zambrano, Ohman and Cotts, the Cubs have a shade under $86 million devoted to the 2007 payroll. With the increases of the payroll into the neighborhood of $115 million, that gives the Cubs about $30 million to spend on two starting pitchers and a centerfielder. That figure could go up if the Cubs can shed the contracts of Scott Eyre and/or Cesar Izturis in the deal for Jake Westbrook. Jim Hendry has stated he won't be outbid for Alfonso Soriano and the Cubs look to be one of the favorites for JD Drew, so it could be interesting. One thing's for sure, Jim Hendry isn't being patient like he was in 2004.

Saito wins Sawamura Award

Fukuoka Softbank Hawk Kazumi Saito won the Japanese Sawamura Award, the league's equivalent to the Cy Young. I hesitate to call him their ace, because they have four dominant starters when they're going right. Saito is the second consecutive Hawk to win the award and it is the third time in the last four years a Hawk has won it. Toshiya Sugiuchi won it last season before struggling much of the 2006 season. Kazumi Saito tied for the award in 2003 with Tiger Kei Igawa. Oddly enough, much like Sugiuchi, Saito crashed and burned his season after taking home the award.

There was little doubt that Saito was going to win the award. He beat out Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kenshin Kawakami and Hiroki Kuroda. Saito won the Pacific League triple crown and matched Matsuzaka start for start most of the season. Kuroda and Matsuzaka were very close to him though. Here would have been my top five:

1. Kazumi Saito, 18-5 1.75 ERA
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka, 17-5 2.13 ERA
3. Hiroki Kuroda 13-6 1.85 ERA
4. Kenshin Kawakami 17-7 2.51 ERA
5. Kei Igawa 14-9 2.97 ERA

Cuban Hitters

For years a tiny island of Cuba has dominated the international baseball world. Cuba has a set of leagues that their players play in and hone their skills. The major league, the Cuban National League, has 16 teams and plays a 90 game schedule from late Novemeber until mid April. After this season ends the best players play in a semi All-Star league. This league is called the Cuban Super League and consists of for teams who play thirty games. Only players from this league are eligible for the Cuban National team that plays on the international level.

The relative quality of the National League isn't easy to define. Unlike the Japanese Leagues or even Mexico, there simply isn't a constant flow in and out of the league to America to grade the league. All of the data we have is coming out and is subject to a high degree of sample size issues. Still, Clay Davenport tried to gauge it from this data a couple years ago and found the quality play roughly the same as the Midwest League or the New York-Penn League, way at the bottom of the scale. Using the same method for Japan on the other hand gets a figure well above Triple A.

This leads to all sorts of questions. As defectors have shown, the high end talent from Cuba can certainly make it in the majors and perform at a high level. However, the average talent level for the Cuban National League is quite low. This leads to a very broad range of talent level on the individual level. You would get some Johan Santana versus Marcos Vechionacci or Albert Pujols versus Kris Johnson matchups. You'll also get some variants in between like Adam Stern versys Kris Johnson. If Albert Pujols and Stern bothed faced a lot of weak pitching equivalent to the low majors, I would doubt you'd be able to notice much of a difference in their stat line.

The end result, on the offensive side, is a lot of guys with absurd batting lines. For instance, in 2006 the league average batting line was .293/.369/.421, and out of the guys who had 200 PA, four had an on-base percentage over .500 and four had batting average over .400. The unpredictable weather seasons from year to year has also led to varying levels of offense on the year to year basis. 2006 was a high level of offense, but in 2005 the average was .281/ .333/.400 a huge difference. Not only do all of these differences cause an issue of comparing players, but the season is only 90 games, making it less reliable to guage a players true ability which is so crucial in predicting a players future.

While the range is quite high, as I've said the elite talent is pretty good. The Cuban Super League is probably similar to Double A or Triple A. At least mathematically, let's compare it to Japan and the Dominican Winter League. Both leagues grade out significantly better, with the DWL being in the middle of AA and AAA and Japan being AAAA borderline MLB. The CNL has sixteen teams based off of Cuba's population of about 11,000,000 people, a relationship of about 700,000 people per team. Japan has a population of over 120,000,000 spread over twelve teams, a relationship of about 10,000,000 people per team. The Dominican Republic only has a population of about 8,000,000, but it's a league that only consists of six teams so it's roughly 1,300,000 people per team. If we consider that each racial group produces the same quality of players based on a function of it's population base, we would expect a direct relationship between players per team and talent level. Just out of pure 'coincidence' Clay Davenport found the league rating of the CNL of like .400 and the rating of the DWL like .800, roughly twice as difficult. The relationship isn't linear, but it's going to be there. The Cuban Super League has four teams, and which raises the ratio to around 2,750,000 people per team, which should bring the concentrated talent level to a pretty high rating. There's almost no reason to even attempt to quantify this leagues difficulty because the sample size caveats are going to be even more problematic. Now, with all of that out of the way, here are the EqA leaders for 2006 in the league with a minimum of 200 PA.

Rk	EqA	AVG	OBP	SLG	Name, Team
1.	.333	.407	.548	.619	Yoandy Garlobo, MTZ
2.	.332	.425	.522	.616	Osmani Urrutia, LTU
3.	.329	.353	.454	.680	Joan Pedroso, LTU
4.	.326	.447	.559	.690	Michel Enriquez, IJV
5.	.319	.327	.416	.676	Yuliesky Gourriel, SSP
6.	.317	.320	.512	.559	Frederich Cepeda, SSP
7.	.315	.351	.442	.649	Yohenis Cespedes, GRA
8.	.306	.315	.447	.555	Alexander Mayeta, IND
9.	.300	.363	.435	.574	Leslie Anderson, CMG
10.	.300	.351	.428	.543	Roberqui Videaux, GTM
11.	.299	.362	.470	.482	Yoandry Urgelles, IND
12.	.298	.366	.454	.514	Pedro Poll, SCU
13.	.297	.346	.431	.514	Ariel Borrero, VCL
14.	.296	.340	.414	.565	Yordanis Samon, GRA
15.	.296	.303	.420	.544	Yosvani Peraza, PRI
16.	.295	.323	.397	.518	Jokel Gil, MET
17.	.295	.337	.393	.542	Dayan Viciedo, VCL
18.	.294	.351	.454	.507	Loidel Chapelli, CMG
19.	.294	.314	.421	.575	Vismay Santos, GTM
20.	.293	.340	.437	.512	Rolando Meriño, SCU
21.	.292	.330	.502	.402	Eduardo Paret, VCL
22.	.292	.353	.417	.508	Alexis Laborde, GTM
23.	.291	.329	.399	.523	Giorvis Duvergel, GTM
24.	.289	.317	.435	.500	Reutilio Hurtado, SCU
25.	.286	.310	.410	.539	Danny Miranda, CAV
26.	.285	.337	.423	.538	Jose Abreu, CFG
27.	.285	.321	.393	.485	Yeral Sanchez, HOL
28.	.285	.340	.400	.483	Amaury Suarez, LTU
29.	.284	.344	.396	.522	Yorelvis Charles, CAV
30.	.284	.322	.399	.523	Alexei Bell, SCU

Many of those players were on the Cuban National Team that played in the World Baseball Classic including almost all of the top 10. This list of hitters represent the top third or so of the offensive players. All of them could probably make the majors in some sort of way, not all of them are starters, but some of them could defenitely and it would be quite foolish to think some of them would not be stars in America.

I am sure that the only reason some of you are reading this is because you want to hear more about Yuliesky Gourriel and the awesomeness that surrounds him. He actually became the first Cuban player ever to have 20 steals and 20 homers in the CNL season. He played all 90 games and led the league in home runs (27), runs batted in (92), runs scored (89) and triples (11). He also became the first player in the league history to have fifty extra base hits. His biggest problem of course, was his discipline. In years past it was due to horrible walk rates, but this year he actually had a good one. He walked 51 times to just 30 strike outs, but his batting average was low and thus his on base percentage too. There were four guys with obp's over .500 by 12 points, his obp was just 16 points over .400. However, he played every inning of every game so he produced more runs than anyone with his bat.

In 2005 he was 6th in the league in EqA, at .315, but his season this year was a marked improvement. His batting average dropped by 30 points but his obp went up by 40 points and his slugging percentage went up by 70 points. If we merge the two seasons as an all-time EqA like stat, we will find EqA in 2005 of .311 and one this season of .324. His EqA last season translated to a .285 mark in the US, but the previous season he was .296. His season this year is probably closer to the latter. He might just be the best second baseman on the planet, and he played this season at 22. He's certainly 25-35 homer guy at the plate presently with room to grow. Unfortunately the likelihoud of Gourriel defecting is next to nilch. We'll just have to wait for the regime to fall.

The other guy you might be interested in is the 16 year old with a .245 (!) translated EqA going into the season. Dayan Viciedo was 17th. He didn't show great discipline, but man he's going to be fun to watch. Cuba is the main reason I am going to love the WBC. Learn to love it. While Americans and scouts talk about Gourriel's talents and wish they had him on their hands, Viciedo is heralded as the next Omar Linares on the island, and everyone's all over him. He's never played in front of a large international audience, outside of some small Junior World Championships. He'll get his first chance this November in the Intercontinental Cup.

Tigers!

Alan Trammel has been hired by the Cubs for two years as Lou Piniella's bench coach. He knows a lot about coaching players the game, but he's another guy who - at least in Detroit - didn't have a clue on what it takes to win a game. I am so glad the Cubs are able to put guys like this on their coaching staff with such ease. As Michael Lewis would say, the Cubs just keep rehiring members of the club, which can cause an eternal reign of losing. On a second note, Trammel and his double player partner, Lou Whitaker, need to be in the Hall of Fame. Both guys are deserving, just go look at the saber alphabet soup stats.

Japanese Pitchers

Over the last few seasons, Japanese pitchers have had quite a bit success in the majors. Relievers such as Shingo Takatsu have come over and had immediate success as a closer. Starters such as Hideo Nomo and Kazuhisa Ishii had initial success. However the crash and burn everyone points to his Hideki Irabu. Irabu and Ishii had varying success in Japan and initially enjoyed some in the major leagues, however eventually each of them were busts. The main reason could be embedded in the Japanese stat lines. Both guys were near the bottom of the league consistently when it came to walks. They had good stuff, although their fastballs dropped in the US - but the walk environment in Japan is a lot different than the US. In Japan the average walk rate is about 2.7 per 9 innings, but in the US it's over 3. So we would expect them to be hurt a lot by the change, moreso than the average Japanese starter. It's similar to home runs, where both guys had high homer rates for Japan, and the US is a lot more homer friendly.

However, Daisuke Matsuzaka's different. He does not have too many problems with the long ball, 13 this year in 186.3 innings. He also has well-above average command for the league. All of these things would allow us to believe that he would have a better translation to the american game. The translations I did involved adjusting their walk and home run rates to an american environment, calculating their FIP in Japan and then converting that to a 4.50 ERA environment using pythagorean. I then divided it by .925 to get a league difficultly adjustment. I am completely aware that this may have double counted the difficulty adjustment and the results I got bear that out. Later on I wish to find exact relationships between strikeout, walk, and home run rates using actual data of players swithing leagues, then calculating their FIP in the US using the MLB fip constant for the season. This time, I did find a good list on who would be able to do the best:

3.52 Daisuke Matsuzaka
3.68 Hiroki Kuroda
3.73 Kazumi Saito
3.94 Rick Guttormson
4.29 Naoyuki Shimizu
4.38 Yuya Ando
4.38 Dicky Gonzalez
4.39 Jeremy Powell
4.44 Masanori Ishikawa
4.58 Nagisa Arakaki
4.59 Shinobu Fukuhara
4.61 Kei Igawa
4.63 Daisuke Miura
4.64 Kazuhisa Ishii
4.64 Tetsuya Utsumi
4.82 Masahiro Yamamoto

Among the pitchers with 100 innings pitched, this list is the top third. The top third in the EqA translations were all above average in the US. Here 4.50 would be average in the US, so it looks as if I may have double counted a bit. Dicky Gonzalez, Jeremy Powell and Ishii have all spent time in the majors. Ishii's career ERA in the USA was 4.44 and his last season 4.71, so I guess it's a fair translation for him. Gonzalez hasn't had a lot of time in the US, but in his longest stint in 2001 he had a 4.88 ERA. It's tough with him because he was 22 at the time. In his only stint as a starter, Jeremy Powell had a 4.73 ERA as a 23 year old. All of these lead to suggest in a general sense there's nothing wrong with these translations. In case you were wondering, the starter who struck out Bonds three times in 2002 and dominated the US in the WBC, Koji Uehara had a 5.64 translation. Uber Japanese phenom Yu Darvish had a 5.86 translation but it's good to remember he spent most of the season as a teenager. Finally, 2005 Sawamura Award winnner Toshiya Sugiuchi had a rough season and translated at well over 6.00 after having a statline last season that would have translated to a mid 3.00s ERA. I will do these for previous seasons and see the trends.

Finally, I would like to talk about the one and only Kyuji Fujikawa. It might be time to wonder how good this guy is compared to the elite major league closers. His fastball runs in the in the mid 90s sitting at 92-93. He has quite possibly the best forkball in the history of the game and a plus slider. He's never been tried as a starter over a full season for the Hanshin Tigers, but he's unfair out of the bullpen. Last year as a setup man he pitched 92.1 innings, struck out 139 guys to just 20 walks. He allowed 57 hits. He had a 1.36 ERA and was dominant out of the pen that took the Tigers to the Japan Series. However this year he was moved into the closing role and made his 2005 line look like weak. He pitched 79.1 innings with 122 strike outs and 22 walks. He allowed six runs. Six. He allowed 46 hits. He nearly had a 3:1 K:H ration and a 2:1 strikeout to baserunner ratio. His translated ERA was a hair over 2.00, but given the translation of guys like Takashi Saito and Kazuhiro Sasaki, he may do better. Unfortunately he's not a free agent for at least three more years.

Of these, the three guys the Cubs are rumored to be interested in include Matsuzaka, Hiroki Kuroda and Kazumi Saito. Kuroda had a fabulous season as the ace of the Hiroshima Toyo Carp. He throws a good fastball in the l0w 90s with a good slider and decent pure offspeed stuff. In the US, he's probably a #3 type starter. Saito is more of a finesse guy with a sinking fastball. His translation is similar, probably a Jeff Suppan type pitcher. Another guy who the Cubs could be interested in is Kei Igawa. Igawa is a power lefty who has command issues but can get the strikeout. I am not so sure he'd adapt so well to the majors. He has great stuff, but he's got the same sorts of problems in Japan that plagued Ishii, Irabu and even Hideo Nomo. There really has not been a starter with good command to cross the ocean.

Open Letter to Jim Hendry #1

Dear Jim,

The Chicago Cubs need a lot of offense, it's true - but signing Alfonso Soriano will simply lead to disaster for this organization. There's no doubt that he's coming off of an excellent season, but to quote Albert Einstein "reality is merely an illusion." In order to move the Cubs in a good direction, one has to realize that the past is not always the greatest indicator of the future. Often one has dig deep for answers to simple questions, such as, "can Alfonso Soriano keep up the walk rate hike that he underwent at age 30?" As Lou Piniella has mentioned the Cubs are in need of proven guys who can get on base - and more importantly not make outs.

Last season Alfonso Soriano walked 67 times in 728 plate appearances, 9.2%. To put the increase into perspective, he walked 66 times in 1340 plate appearances the two previous seasons, 4.9%. His walk rate was 83% higher in 2006 than it was in 2004 or 2005. It would be understandable if a person who exhibited excellent walk rates in the minor leagues and was under 25 to undergo such a transformation, but a major league veteran at age 30?

Since 1900 among players with 300 ABs in three consecutive season such a condition has happened 37 times. Of these 37 players, 29 of them got 300 ABs the next season. On average they lost 48.9% of the gain they had. Only two of them managed to increase again the next season (Johnny Evers and Lave Cross). Due to sample size issues with the number of walks, I would throw out all dead ball era players. Doing so is going to leave us with a 20 player sample size, but oh well. These players lost an average of 53.5% of their gain. Two of them actually lost all of their gain (Carlos Lee and Shawon Dunston). Now, this is a graph of their relative walk rates compared to their 0 season, which would be the established season before the huge increase, in Soriano's case 2005.

As you can easily see, there's a huge dropoff after one year, but it's still above the established level for all of the players involved. However, there is another issue at work here. This year Soriano had sixteen intentional walks, nine more than he had the two years prior. Is this something to last? Possibly with his increased power - if his power increase is legitimate.

Once you factor out the intentional walks, you still find an increase of 62.1% on his walk rate. Doing the same above, we'd be able to find an additional 121 guys that fit our criteria, bringing the sample size to 141 live ball era players who increased their unintentional walk rate by over 62 percent. This sample size lost an average of 33.6% of their increase the second year, but they still had an increase of 53.5% over the established rate. Due to the much larger sample size, it may be possible to sort out the players by age brackets.

The brackets selected are pretty arbitrary. I used young as 20-24, prime as 25-29, past prime as 30-34 and old as 35 and up. The results are quite interesting, although there's an issue of which category Soriano is going to fall into:

Age Group	Sample Size	Year 1	Year 2	Change
20-24	26	+79.0%	+69.0%	-13.0%
25-29	74	+79.1%	+53.2%	-31.2%
30-34	35	+91.2%	+40.3%	-57.5%
35-40	6	+75.4%	+67.1%	-13.7%
29-31	33	+89.4%	+51.2%	-35.9%
Total	141	+81.9%	+53.5%	-33.6%

Remember, the change in the Year 2, is still relative to the baseline in the two years preceding the "breakout" year. Obviously, you can throw out the oldest age group due to sample size, but that does not matter. It's pretty obvious that breakout gains of the magnitude of Alfonso Soriano's clearly drop off quicker as the player gets older. Soriano spent this season as an age 30, so he's right on the cusp of the two. That's the reason at the bottom I added the 29-31 class. As you can see that age group is a lot closer to the 25-29 class. However, there is one small problem - Don Kolloway in 1948. He's inflating the system due to just 9 walks in his "base" season. So any increase is going not be a good representation. If you remove that season, you get a drastic change in results for the class. Most importantly they fall from +90.4% to +44.9% a loss of 47.2% of the increase.

All in all there is pretty good reason to believe that Soriano loses half of his increase in UBB walk rate. Whether or not he duplicates the high intentional walk rate depends on two things - his team, and finally the power output he has. Jim, for the Cubs these two things are going to pull into opposite ways. If acquired and he bats leadoff in a revamped lineup, odds are with Derrek Lee a couple batters behind him they're going to face him more, and not walk him to get to Matt Murton or whoever is in the second hole (except Cesar Isturis). The other issue is his power.

Not adjusting for park, Soriano had an increase of 20 percent on his power output, HR/PA. With a minimum of 350 AB and 15 homers, we have 346 such instances in the live ball era. On average, all of those hitters lost 48.8% of the power increase in the second year. I am not about to enter 386 ages, but odds are that there won't be some magic thing that makes 30 year olds more likely to sustain the power increase over the average aged hitter. Still, the sample would suggest a plus 10 percent power increase for Soriano, giving him roughly 40 homers. But Jim, beware of the sample size issue. Soriano batted 728 times last season, about 50 more than he did the previous year, so keep that in mind.

So all in all we'd expect Soriano to regress around 50 percent over his improvement. If you were to take that to EqA you'd expect him to have an EqA somewhere near .290 next season which is pretty average for him. Soriano had a huge season, but a .290 EqA in left field doesn't play well. However, it does fit nicely in centerfield, but the return on that is probably only worth maybe $10,000,000 not the higher figures he's more than likely going to get (and has rejected). Sure, his bat profiles well at 2B, but his .290 EqA is going to lead to at most 25-30 runs over an average 2B, 20 of which will get negated by his rock glove.

Sure, you might not be able to get a better centerfielder than him, but who said he is going to agree to play there? He's got options and will probably try to move back to second. In left field he's a decent choice, but is he that much better than Carlos Lee? Probably not. At second you can surely do better for cheaper. It's just not worth the price on him, no matter the impact his percieved value is. We already have issues with players like him, we need on base percentage. Guys who can walk. Soriano is clearly not that sort of player.

Jim, stay far far far away.

International Options - Hitters

Recent rumors have suggested that the Cubs pulled their scouts at the end of the season in an effort to get a jump start on the offseason and scout potential newcomers. This does not just include players in the US, as they sent ace scout, Gary Hughes, to Asia. Of course he primary assignment was probably Daisuke Matsuzaka, but sources indicate that they found several other potential acquisitions. Now that the regular season is over, it's time to look at the top hitter in Japan and how they fared. With a minimum of 250 PA, here are the top 30 hitters with their positions.

.348 Kosuke Fukudome, Chunichi Dragons - RF
.340 Tyrone Woods, Chunichi Dragons - 1B
.333 Sung-Yeop Lee, Yomiuri Giants - 1B
.328 Nobuhiko Matsunaka, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks - DH
.320 Michihiro Ogasawara, Nippon Ham Fighters - 1B
.317 Alex Cabrera, Seibu Lions - 1B
.308 Tomoaki Kanemoto, Hanshin Tigers - LF
.306 Jose Fernandez, Rakuten Golden Eagles - 1B
.304 Akinori Iwamura, Yakult Swallows - 3B
.303 Kazuhiro Wada, Seibu Lions - LF
.302 Julio Zuleta, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks - 1B
.300 Yuki Yoshimura, Yokohama Baystars - CF
.300 Fernando Seguignol, Nippon Ham Fighters - DH
.297 Atsunori Inaba, Nippon Ham Fighters - RF
.296 Adam Riggs, Yakult Swallows - 1B
.295 Osamu Hamanaka, Hanshin Tigers - RF
.294 Hiroyuki Nakajima, Seibu Lions - SS
.292 Kazuki Inoue, Chunichi Dragons - LF
.291 Andy Sheets, Hanshin Tigers - 1B
.290 Tomoya Satozaki, Chiba Lotte Marines - C
.290 Benny Agbayani, Chiba Lotte Marines - LF
.289 Tomohiro Nioka, Yomiuri Giants - SS
.288 Kentaro Sekimoto, Hanshin Tigers - 3B
.286 Tomonori Maeda, Hiroshima Toyo Carp - LF
.286 Munenori Kawasaki, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks - SS
.285 Shuichi Murata, Yokohama Baystars - 3B
.284 Takashi Toritani, Hanshin Tigers - SS
.284 Norichika Aoki, Yakult Swallows - CF
.284 Kenta Kurihara, Hiroshima Toyo Carp - 3B
.283 Hiroki Kokubo, Yomiuri Giants - 3B

The multiplier to the US on average is about .925, which leave these hitters to all be above average hitters in the USA. Kosuke Fukudome's EqA translates to around .320 by this method - roughly Derek Jeter. There's a surprise for me that there are so many shortstops in the top 30, and one of them is not Marine shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who might wind up being the best of all of them, and the only reason he did not make this list was he wasn't his usual immortal self on the bases like last season. His EqA was .281 and with his career CS rate it would have been over .290 - by far the best season of his career. Speaking of Japanese shortstops, Hiroyuki Nakajima was the best in the league in 2004, but stumbled with contact in 2005 and now look he's back to being one of the top overall players in the league.

There's really only a couple of players the Cubs could acquire this season, as most of these players won't be coming stateside. The biggest one is Akinori Iwamura who hit .312/.388/.552 with 32 homers in a pretty hitter friendly ballpark. His numbers have been pretty constant near that level his time in Japan the last three seasons. His best season was 2004 where he knocked 44 homers. His EqA that year was .307 and in 2005 it was .307, so he's definitely leveled out at the level. Given the .925 rule, that would be about a .280 EqA each season - roughly what Ryan Zimmerman and Adrian Beltre did this season. Somewhere around a .280/.350/.450 hitter. Clay Davenport did translations before the WBC and got an average of about a .270 EqA and a .270/.340/.440 hitter out of him. The issue those two seasons were an extremely high strike out total in an environment that does not have a lot of those. However, he's cut down his strike out totals the last three years by about 30 each year while maintaining his power output. So I think that's going to be a pretty low translation. Most of the names rumored to crossing the pond our pitchers, and I'll look at them later. Those comparisons are probably pretty good as he's a tremendous defender who dazzled during the World Baseball Classic.

Uncle Lou!

Lot's of stuff in the works for the Cubs. It was widely reported this weekend that Lou Piniella would be the Cubs new manager, and today he was officially announced as the manager. Aren't we greatful! Piniella signed a three year deal worth 10 million with a 5 million fourth year option. Jim Hendry has continued to overpay for mediocrity, but oh well we expected it and at the very least Piniella will be a very expensive clown for Cub fans to enjoy during his all too common meltdowns.

The Cubs have been at or near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage the last few seasons and Piniella seems to be saying all the right things on it, " my philosophy is to get eight midgets up there who walk all the time." That's just great, a huge turn around from Dusty Baker. So can we just trade for JD Drew already? It would be a great start. Well, after that he said something not so encouraging "I don't like to sit and wait for the three-run homer. If you look at the teams I managed in Seattle and even Tampa Bay, we always were up there doing the things we needed to do to win ballgames." I'm not sure if that was true in the Kingdome. If it was true, that was utterly stupid. Hopefully he understands when not to do this (early in games). Piniella later continued "You need pitchers who can command the strike zone, you need defensive players who can catch the ball, and you would think in a ballpark like this that you need a lot of power, but you what you need is athleticism. You catch more baseballs. Singles stay singles, doubles stay doubles." Yeah, this is so a Jim Hendry type comment. I can just see it now, Cesar Izturis manning shortstop and the such.

Jumbo decided to chime in with his thoughts adding "I think he's the right guy to take us to the promised land. That should be our goal. It's up to me to put a better product on the field and get enough players where he can mold them into a championship team." The promised land reminded me of Final Fantasy VII, so I guess we can hope that Uncle Lou is our Aeris, but I think he's going to turn out to be our Sephiroth.

Even Tony Lala decided to venture his opinion "I'm not sure that there's a lot of difference in personality. Dusty's very close to his players, and Lou gets very close to his players. From what I know of both of them, there's a lot more similarity between the two guys than differences." Great. Aren't we so excited if they're the same then what is the whole point of making the move? Just to appease the fan base or the media?

Piniella has also gone on record to say he wants the Cubs to acquire Alex Rodriguez. The two had a great relationship in Seattle, so why not? Rodriguez has gained some weight since moving to third, so his mobility at shortstop would be a concern, and we can keep Aramis Ramirez without giving up talent. I am not sure if the logistics of the deal are going to work out. The Yankees are going to want a frontline starter at the minimum. The Cubs are already in the market for two starting pitchers, and the only sure-bet big name frontline starter the Cubs have the Yankees would want would be Carlos Zambrano. I don't see that deal getting done. Rich Hill doesn't have the name recognition New York would need to justify the deal. The only way this works out is through a complicated three or four team deal similar to the Nomar Garciaparra trade in 2004. The most likely scenario would involve the Florida Marlins and Dontrelle Willis. The only way I'd do that deal with a lot of prospects would be if we kept Hill. There are too many complications for this deal to ever get done.

Finally, Mark Prior visited Dr. James Andrews yesterday. I am no M.D. but I don't like what I've read on it. Apparently the problem with Prior is "looseness." It's what causes his problems and it's also precisely what makes him so good when he's healthy. The always so accurate Mark O'Neal says, "Some people either have a tight shoulder or are labeled as genetically loose. Mark is one of those people who has loose joints -- it's something that's genetically given to him. That looseness is what allows him to generate as much force as he does to be the great pitcher that he has the potential to be and has been." With the diagnosis done by three different people, the consensus is that Prior needs to strengthen his muscles a lot. Shoulder surgery really isn't an option. Prior is supposed to rest it for 4-6 weeks since the end of the season. I can already see it now, Prior will be out in Spring Training. The Cubs should operate as if Mark Prior is not on the team. Anything we get out of him is a bonus. Such a shame, he seems like a great kid too.

Manager Madness

So far, the Cubs have interviewed current WGN analyst, Bob Brenly; current FOX analyst, Lou Piniella; former Marlins manager, Joe Girardi; current Triple-A Iowa manager, Mike Quade; and current Double-A West Tenn/Tennessee manager, Pat Listach. The Cubs have yet to interview current Padres manager Bruce Bochy, but are expected to do so. None of the choices are overly good, but let's look at them.

Joe Girardi
Experience: 1 year
Record: 78-84
Playoff Appearances: 0
World Series: 0

Joe Girardi was one of those players that everyone knew he would be a big league manager when he played. After retiring in 2003, he became a coach for the Yankees for two seasons before being hired as the Marlin manager for this season. He took a Marlin team of a bunch of kids and had a very good season with them. His style is similar to Joe Torre and he doesn't take any shit. He required the Marlins to have a similar facial hair policy to the Yankees. He demands a lot of respect from his players and gives them respect. These are very important qualities. He is very bright and seems adaptable. Cubs fans are screaming for him to get the job, I think his contributions to the Fish are overrated, but he is a fine manager.

Lou Piniella
Experience: 19 years
Record: 1519-1420
Playoff Appearances: 5
World Series: 1

Lou Piniella is similar to Dusty Baker. He's well known for his antics while arguing with umpires - and that's a great bonus when you aren't very good. He's had a very successful managing career, but his teams have been well-endowed with talent. His style is similar to Baker in that he's a player's manager who is old-fashioned. Listening to him on FOX telecasts during the playoffs haven't made me think too highly of him. He's seems way too old school for me, but that's probably right up Jim Hendry's alley as far as guys he wants.

Mike Quade
Experience: 0 years

Quade has spent the last couple of seasons as Iowa's manager. He's come over from the Athletics organization so he probably has a clue on how walks are advantageous for the team. The Cubs are in no position to hire a first year manager, so I don't expect this to happen, although it seems like he'd be a good choice.

Pat Listach
Experience: 0 years

Listach was West Tenn's manager last season. He's another up and comer who seems to have a clue on the game of baseball. Like Quade, the Cubs cannot afford to hire a first year manager. I don't think Listach is anywhere near the Cubs' radar, but they are required to interview at least one minority manager - even if they have no intention on actually signing him.

Bruce Bochy
Experience: 12 years
Record: 951-975
Playoff Appearances: 4
World Series: 0

Bochy is the second longest tenured manager in baseball today, to Bobby Cox in Atlanta. He's been with the Padres as a coach for fourteen years and has managed the last twelve. He's also led them to four division titles in the twelve years, an impressive feat considering that the Giants, Dodgers and to a certain extent the Diamondbacks have been players with money the entire time. He also seems to have a clue on the walk like Quade. He moved Brian Giles to the second slot in the lineup this season and has discussed leading Giles off next season if they do not retain Dave Roberts. I think Bochy would be an excellent choice and of the guys Hendry has interviewed, he might be the best. I am not so sure the Padres would allow Bochy to go, though Hendry also wanted him in 2003 before falling into the media and fans choice of Dusty Baker.

There are two others that the Cubs have not considered that I would love Jim Hendry to look into. The first being Larry Dierker. Dierker is noted as a guy who follows the stats and had a very good run with the Astros in the 1990s. I can't believe this guy has not gotten a second shot, it's a damn shame. The other guy who would be interesting would be Trey Hillman out of Japan. He's had a very good run as manager of the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters and is leaving the organization after this season.

Carlos Guillen for MVP?

For awhile, traditionalists have been using the argument that player A might be better than player B, but player B meant more to their team than player A. I and other people have thought this was bad in the past, but I have seen the light. In fact, the actual ballot states that the award should be based on a players value towards his team. I decided to take a systematic approach to that reasoning and devise a simply way to estimate how much a player really meant to their team. The key figure that allows us to do this is a simply concept, diminishing marginal returns (wins) to each run created or saved. Take for example, the pythagorean win-loss formula. Hold the runs allowed portion constant at league average of 797 runs. If you were to graph their expected wins based on runs, you would get this:

It's nearly a straight line, but it isn't. If each run created created exactly .1 runs then we would expect this function to have a constant slope of 1/10. However once we differentiate it, we'll find the marginals wins to each run scored, in simple terms that is how much each run is worth. Graphing the slope would give us this:

As you can see, each run is worth less the more you score. Run number 800 is worth about .09 wins and the 900th run is worth about .08 wins in terms of their expected win loss record. To make this long story short, if you add two similar offensive players one to already good offense and one to a bad offense, the one you add to a bad offense is certainly going to be more important to his team winning. Adding more offense to a team that already has a lot of offense is overkill. There is a similar effect to runs saved for pitchers as well. Now take for example Derek Jeter and Carlos Guillen. The two teams functions are going to be different, their pitching staffs aren't the same so we are going to let that equal to their actual teams pitching. We'll get graphs like so:

Now for actually looking at their contributions. So what would happen if we took Jeter off the Yankees and Guillen off the Tigers. The Yankees are already starting towards the top of their curve because of their better offense and the Tigers are lower, so they will lose more. It's relatively easy to take off their runs by using VORP. Jeter's VORP was 79.2 this season and Guillen's was 67.0. We can easily use the pythag win loss to measure how many wins we would expect to take off their win-loss record because of losing that offensive player. Once you do this we find that Jeter's VORP translated into approximately 6.61 wins for the Yankees and Carlos Guillens VORP translated into approximately 6.62 runs for the Tigers. This is assuming that both players have equal defensive ability. A general consensus on defensive stats for the last few seasons is that Guillen is better there making the seperation a bit larger.

So you are thinking, oh great you had a huge thread just to show that Carlos Guillen was .01 wins better than Derek Jeter? The answer is yes, but there are other things to consider. One of them is of course payroll. No, I am not going to say that Jeter makes more and that's the reason to discredit him, I am going to say that the Yankees would have an easier time replacing Jeter than the Tigers would have replacing Guillen. Guillen's actual value over the player the Tigers replace him with is likely going to be higher than Jeter's value over the replacement the Yankees get (buy). This may seem unfair to Jeter, but it's a simple truth. Finally there's another issue at stake, getting into the playoffs. Take 6.5 wins off the Yankees and they still make the playoffs by a couple games. Take 6.5 wins off the Tigers and they don't make the playoffs. When two players have essentially the same value to their team, all three of these off the field reasons are huge when fully analyzing a players value to his team.

Lastly, there's the whole argument that Jeter did better so he is better and is more valuable. No Yankee fan has taken the time to simply analyze why Derek Jeter has a higher VORP. The main reason is simple - he's on the New York Yankees. No, there is no hidden if/then function in the formula for VORP that gives bonus points for being the Captain of the New York Yankees, but there are some effects being on the Yankees that have given Jeter a clear-cut advantage just because he is a Yankee. VORP consists primarily of three things, plate appearances, marginal lineup value rate (MLVr) of the player in question and a replacement players MLVr at the same position. MLVr is formulated by a function of a players slugging percentage, on-base percentag, batting average and stolen base rate(s) on a teams' runs scored for a season. Replacement level is defined as about the 40th best player at that position (roughly 35 points below average OBP and SLG at the position).

Looking through the lines of the players, you will notice that Carlos Guillen has a better MLVr than Derek Jeter .279 to .268 (runs per game). However, once we extend this to VORPr (essentially playerMLVr - replacementMLVr) is quite a bit higher than Carlos Guillen. We'll remember this later as it has a lot to do with the usage of Jeter compared to Guillen. You will also notice that Derek Jeter has a 715 plate appearances and Carlos Guillen had just 622, a difference of 93. I found this peculiar because Derek Jeter only played a few more innings than Guillen overall and appeared in just one more game. So I dug deeper.

The first bit of information also echoes a point made a lot earlier. There's a second byproduct of the Yankees being a better offensive team, the turn the lineup over more. The Yankees' team OBP is over .360 while the Tigers' is under .330. A significant difference. Each spot in the Yankees lineup batted approximately 22 more times than the corresponding slot in the Tigers' lineup. 22 times may not seem like a lot, but it's going to be worth a couple runs.

The second and bigger bit of information has to do with Jim Leyland's stupidity and Joe Torre's lust. Jeter batted second most of the season and he got 50 or so PA batting third. Despite being the Tigers' best hitter, Leyland stuck Guillen in the five hole most of the season with an additional 70 PA's coming in the seventh spot. It was not the right move. It's a huge reason that Jeter has a higher VORP. Each spot in the batting order gets about 20 more PAs than the spot behind it. The difference in Jeter batting second and Guillen batting fifth is worth about 60 PAs and then there are another 8-10 PAs when Jeter batted third and Guillen batted seventh.

All of these are going to add up to about 90 more PAs for Derek Jeter just because of the teams they were on. If you guys want to seperate that teams you have to adjust. Both players spent about the same amount of time on the field. However, Jeter got 90 PAs because of the Yankees for the most part. Even using their standard VORPr an adjusting this on Guillen, compensating for the Yankee-Jeterness would give him 10 more runs on his VORP. This would bring the difference between the two to 79.2 to 77.0 with Jeter getting a 2.2 run advantage.

Of course for all of the reasons mentioned above, Guillen would probably be more valuable. Also those 2.2 runs would be made up if Guillen was a better defensive shortstop, and the general consensus is that he is. Now, if you will recall I said that Jeter's replacement player was lower than Guillen's. Why is this? It has to do with Jeter being a Yankee and Guillen being a Tiger. Guillen got into 8 games as a 1B. Due to various reasons Leyland was forced to play him there. Joe Torre would never ask Jeter to play 1B even though he had the chance. If you factor out the difference here, Guillen's VORP is going to be over 80, clocking in at 81.5.

So in conclusion, there are a lot of reasons that Carlos Guillen is the League's Most Valuable Player to his team. One of the big ones is that his overall value to his team is higher than Jeter's. Secondly, the only reason Jeter produced more in absolute terms are factors caused by the teams the played on, not the players themself. It's pretty cut and dry, Carlos Guillen is better than Derek Jeter and deserves the MVP over him.

Tim Tebow

The Florida Gators moved up to the number 2 ranking in the AP Poll after their victory over the LSU Tigers yesterday. They've got Auburn next week and if they go through that game unscathed it'll be hard pressed to rank them behind Ohio State. Especially if they can topple Georgia two weeks later. Tim Tebow rocks my socks. He should rock yours too. He's got a better jump shot than Shaq!

In actual Cubs news, it looks like Joe Torre is out in New York. Uncle Lou Piniella is the rumored top candidate to replace him. I love that. Buster Olney is also reporting that it is highly likely for Alex Rodriguez to be moved this offseason. Let's go Jumbo make your magic work without Carlos Zambrano or Rich Hill.

2007 Payroll

Woo we all love making money! I do, you do. Anyways, given the what John McDonough has said about the payroll, I guess it is safe to assume it will be around $100,000,000 next season. So we'll use that as a starting point. So the roster:

1. $12,500,000 - Carlos Zambrano
2. $375,000 - Rich Hill
3.
4.
5. $4,000,000 - Mark Prior
6. $5,000,000 - Ryan Dempster
7. $4,000,000 - Bob Howry
8. $3,500,000 - Scott Eyre
9. $375,000 - Michael Wuertz
10. $1,100,000 - Will Ohman
11. $375,000 - David Aardsma

Catchers:
12. $4,000,000 - Michael Barrett
13.

Infielders:
14. $13,000,000 - Derrek Lee
15. $4,150,000 - Cesar Izturis
16. $375,000 - Ronny Cedeno
17. $330,000 - Ryan Theriot
18.
19.
20.

Outfielders:
21. $5,500,000 - Jacque Jones
22. $375,000 - Matt Murton
23. $375,000 - Angel Pagan
24.
25.

The Cubs have three guys who are eligible for arbitration, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano and Will Ohman. Mark Prior does not have much leverage, so I think the max for him will be $4M. I expect Carlos Zambrano to get over $10M in arbitration, but I expect an extension to go into place before it comes to that. I think $12.5M is a safe guess on what the first year will be. Will Ohman will be a second-year arbitration guy, he asked for about $750,000 last season and reached a happy medium. I expect him to get just over a million.

That all totals to roughly $60,000,000 if we take two of the bench spots and give them to rookies, which is almost a lock. One of the open rotation slots (Mark Prior's) will go to someone like Sean Marshall. One of the bench spots will also go to a rookie, most likely backup catching going to Geovany Soto. So that gives the Cubs roughly $40,000,000 to spend on:

2 Starting Pitchers
1 Centerfielder
1 Thirdbaseman
3 Bench Players

And that's not the only likely part. The Cubs will almost certainly be shelling out about $5,000,000 to Kerry Wood overall if they resign him to a incentive-laden deal. The Cubs will likely resign Aramis Ramirez to some sort of deal that will rake in Derrek Lee type money, so that's going to be about $18,000,000 between the two of them. So we have roughly $22,000,000 to spend between:

2 Starting Pitchers
1 Centerfielder
2 Infielders

I am also assuming the Cubs are going to carry 12 pitchers now. That just seems probably to me. So who is possible with that money? Jim McDoughnut is a marketing guru, so maybe he will understand the marketing potential in Japan via Daisuke Matsuzaka but I don't see it happening. I think one of the top free agents on Jim Hendry's list will be Ray Durham. He can fill our leadoff void and play second base. He's going to command around $6,000,000. The one other bench spot can be signed with a mil or less. That leaves us with just $15,000,000 to spend on two starters and a centerfielder. With Felix Pie nearly ready the Cubs can afford to go stopgapping in centerfield with a Kenny Lofton or Dave Roberts costing about $3,000,000. So now we have to go with 2 rotation spots with about $12,000,000 to spend. That's not pretty. In a dream world we could squeeze Jason Schmidt in for that, and then pick a journeyman starter. However, in our sense I think two guys I would like and could sign for that would be Ted Lilly and Gil Meche. They are not great, but are two guys with strong strikeout rates in the American League. They have their control issues, but those can be minimized in a move to the National League. Both guys could thrive.

Doing what I did with out forty-mil we'll run out the following:

1. Ray Durham, 2B
2. Kenny Lofton, CF
3. Derrek Lee, 1B
4. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
5. Michael Barrett, C
6. Jacque Jones, RF
7. Matt Murton, LF
8. Cesar Izturis, SS

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Rich Hill
3. Ted Lilly
4. Gil Meche
5. Sean Marshall/Mark Prior/Angel Guzman

If that team is healthy outside of Mark Prior they can win 85 game or so, with Mark Prior pushing them into the 90s. It's not great, but it maxes out what we can do right now. The real sticking point was the deal trading Greg Maddux for Cesar Izturis instead of propects. Izturis is just a clone of two guys we already had, Ronny Cedeno and Neifi Perez. He's making over $4 million too! If we had that monay back we could sign Jason Schmidt and a decent veteran, now we can't. Good going Jumbo.

Sean Rodriguez

Entering the 2003 MLB Draft, Sean Rodriguez was a shortstop coming out of Braddock High School in Florida. He was the 14th rated prospect coming out of a very deep and talented Florida draft class and was ranked 84th overall. He was viewed as a guy who had the arm, range and hands to play shortstop, but scouts that he might wind up at second or behind the dish. He was seen as a guy with excellent linedrive swing and outstanding instincts and makeup. He also had excellent pedigree, his dad is a minor league manager and his brother is in the minors. He was slated as a third-to-fifth round draft pick and that came true as the Anaheim Angels took him with their 3rd round pitck (90th overall).

He signed quickly for $400,000 and made his debut in the Arizona Summer League. He got in 54 games hitting .269/.332/.380 flashing good extra base power and swiping 11 bases. He only knocked 2 homers, and struck out 37 times to just 14 walks. Something he needed to work on at the time. He was overshadowed by Brandon Wood on the team, starting out at third before moving to shortstop once Wood was promoted. He was rated the 18th best prospect in the league. He was not in the Angels top 10, which was no surprise as they had a very deep system at the time. The rumor still was that he might have been great behind the dish, but that never happened.

Going into 2004 the Angels shipped him up to fullseason Low A Cedar Rapids to start the season. Because of Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood in the middle infield, he split time between centerfield and thirdbase. The Angels still thought he would stick at short, but they didn't have a spot for him. He struggled through the beginning of the season hitting .250/.333/.393 in just under 200 ABs. He showed gap power, but struck out 54 times and only walked 18. Once shortseason Provo started up in June they moved him down (where he was still underaged to the league) so he could play short. He flatout raked for 64 games hitting .338/.486/.569 with 51 walks and 62 strikeouts. He really made strides with the walk rate, a good sign for him. To go with the 51 walks he was hit 15 times. Overall he had about 440 ABs and hit 14 homers, stole 23 bases with 69 walks. Baseball America didn't rank him in the MWL top 20, but he was third in the Pioneer League ahead of Billy Butler and Scott Elbert. They commended his patience at the plate and advanced approach. He was the league's MVP and was thought to be moved behind the plate in the instructional league.

That move never happened, and he stayed in the middle infield. He was just out of their Top 10 that year and started back at Low A Cedar Rapids as a 20 year old in 2005 (mainly to Kendrick and Wood). He didn'thit for the guady average he showed in Provo, but he hit a solid .250/.371/.422 overall with 14 homer and 29 doubles. He also stole 27 bases and walked 78 times in 124 games. He showed his great patience, but struck out a bit. Still it was a solid season, but BA took the toolsy nature and didn't think much of him. They slapped the potential utility label on him. He was close to the top 20 in the league, but didn't make that or the Angels top 10. He was quietly becoming the underrated saber prospect. BA said he had the best discipline in the system, and said he had tools.

This year they moved him up to the California League. It's an offensive enironment and he torched the league. Yes, he did hit 16 of his 24 homers at home - but his park plays as a below league average home run park, so what gives? I doubt there's much in the splits. He hit .302/.379/.548 overall in the league with 24 homers. He didn't have the godly walk rate, 47:447 ABs and 122 strikeouts. However, to silence the critics he had an impressive final month in double a hitting .354/.462/.662 with 5 homers in 65 AB with 11 BB and 18 Ks. Granted his home park there is a home run park, but even in the small sample he showed he could hang in Double A. Overall a shortstop hitting 29 homers with 60 walks would get a lot of publicity, but not Rodriguez. They once again slapped the utility tag on him as they ranked him the 12th prospect in the league. Again a lot of their ranking was that they didn't think he could stick at shortstop. He's probably going to slot somewhere in the Angel Top 10 this year, but where is anyones guess.

In Sean Rodriguez we have a guy saber guys are going to love. Yes he's going to strikeout a lot and probably won't hit over .280 much, but he's going to take his fair share of walks, totalling between 50 and 80 a season one would think to go with 10-20 HBPs. That's good for .350 or so OBP. He also flashes average power hitting 15-20 home runs power. That's excellent production out of a shortstop with serviceble but below average defense. It's okay for centerfielder or secondbaseman as well. If he moves to third, it's probably league average at the position. Regardless his bat is good enough he can hit at any position except first and leftfield. BA does not properly value the walk, and it obviously affects Rodriguez. Don't get me wrong, I don't think he's the second coming of Carlos Guillen, but I expect he's good enough to be a regular in the majors. He could have been special if they moved him to catcher...

He's gone.

And with that, Dusty Baker is no longer the manager of the Chicago Cubs. It couldn't have come quicker. I dunno how good this will be, we won't know until we know the replacement.

Two down one to go.

And that's that.

With today's victory the 2006 season is in the books, and it couldn't have come quicker. The Cubs finished with the third worst record in baseball at 66-96. That would be the Cubs second worst record in the last 25 years. Yeah, this season was bad even for Cubs' standards. What made it so bad is that the Cubs expected to win around 80-85 games which would have been enough to make the playoffs. When you're going bad, you're going bad. The good news is that the last two times the Cubs lost as many as they did this season, they won the division within four years.

Oh well, the general consensus is that Dusty Baker's tenure of field manager is coming to an end tomorrow morning when he meets with Jim Hendry. Baker's in game managing rivals the worst in baseball, but as a coach I think he's probably very good. Maybe one day Cubs' management will realize that the managers job isn't to teach. The Boston Herald is reporting that the Cubs have Terry Francona on their list of potential succesors to Baker. To me the Cubs would be replacing Dusty Baker with Dusty Baker. I'm sure it is an upgrade, but more of a lateral move than I would like the Cubs to make at this point. As of right now, I guess the four most likely managers for the Cubs are: Terry Francona, Bob Brenly, Fredi Gonzalez and Joe Girardi.

In other Cubs management news, it's the end of an era in Chicago. Andy MacPhail has resigned as president and CEO. MacPhail has been near the top of the Cubs management chain since 1994, and is rumored to be taking over for Bud Selig. Again, who knows how much of an effect this move will have on the Cubs. The last few seasons from the outside it looks like the Cubs have had several clashes between MacPhail and Hendry on who to bring in. If anything this should lead to more of a focused plan. I think Jim Hendry - Andy MacPhail - Dusty Baker = The GM we all thought Hendry was a couple years ago.

In actual potential on the field news, the Cubs are apparently interested in entering the Daisuke Matsuzaka sweepstakes. Whether or not this is a "Token Offer" just to keep the media off the Cubs' back similar to the offers to Carlos Beltran remains to be seen. One thing to keep in mind is that Matsuzaka's agent is Scott Boras, who the Cubs are one of the few teams to have good relations with. I still don't see the Cubs outbidding the Yankees and Mariners. Mariners' de facto owner Hiroshi Yamauchi and Nintendo figure to bid a blank check on Matsuzaka similar to what they did for Ichiro Suzuki in 2000.

Daric Barton

Daric Barton started out as a catcher coming out of Southern California, a national hotbed of high school baseball talent. He was rated the 72nd best prospect in the draft by Baseball America. He was rated the second-best pure hitter from the high school ranks, but did not rnak in the top five for power nor the top three for strike-zone judgement. In retrospect, the plate discipline should have been a strength. The problem was not that he could not hit. He had everything that you would want in a hitter, but his defensive skills behind the plate weren't very good. He was a young draftee, just seventeen when he signed. The St. Louis Cardinals took him with the 28th overall pick in the draft and bought him out of his Cal-State Fullerton commitment for $1,000,000.

Barton signed early enough to appear for Johnson City in the Appy League. He showed his considerable hitting ability, hitting .294/.420/.424 in 209 PAs. The power wasn't very good, he homered four times and doubled ten times. However he had a great walk rate and did not strike out too much, a 37:48 ratio. It would be the last time he's had more K's than BB's any level. He remained behind the dish though, and prompted Baseball America to rate him as the fifth best prospect in the league. His defense was good enough to keep his projection behind the plate. His power and hitting ability played well and his discipline was tremendous. He did enough to debut at #8 for the Cardinals top 10.

For his first full season the Cardinals sent Barton to Low A Peoria. He was limited to just 90 games due to injuries, but he continued to show a plus bat as he hit .313/.445/.511 hitting 13 homers and 23 doubles. He drew 69 walks compared to just 44 strikeouts. All-in-all a great debut for any prospect. He was rated the #2 prospect in the league, behind Brian Dopirak. Various scouts called him the best pure hitter in the minor leagues. Baseball America also noted while he was a count worker, he was not a passive hitter. This is because despite the 100 BB potential, he's never going to strikeout more than 60 or so times a season. Their were still doubts about his catching ability. Earlier in his career his arm rated as above average, now it was not. He wasn't athletic enough to move elsewhere besides 1B, so he gets a bit of a shaft similar to the Royals' Billy Butler.

On December 18th, 2004 Billy Beane made one of the best trades of his career. He shipped out overrated pitcher Mark Mulder to the Cardinals for Barton, Dan Haren and Kiko Calero. It's no shock that Beane has a lustful attraction to Barton. By this time, on-base percentage had become quite expensive on the open free agent market. Beane then had to get his on-base driven players through trades. Barton's plate discipline is plus-plus, so it was a no-brainer. Dan Haren and Kiko Calero were throw-ins. Haren's developed into a top 10 American League pitcher. Mark Mulder has sucked. Hard. Barton was rated the best prospect in the Oakland organization. He was also rated the 32nd best prosect in the minor leagues.

The A's sent Barton to High A Stockton of the California League. They also moved him to first base and designated hitter full-time. Barton went off hitting .318/.438/.469 in 79 games. He also drew 62 walks compared to 49 strikeouts. THe 20 year old got a July promotion to AA Midland. He nearly hit identical. He jacked 5 homers with 20 2B in route to a .316/.410/.491 line with 35 walks compared to 30 strike outs. Barton was eligible to be ranked in both the Texas League and the California league. He ranked #3 and #6 respectively. Once again he was the best prospect in the A's organization and the #28 prospect in baseball. However, he no longer caught. It's quite a bit to move from a catcher all the way down to first base.

For the 2006 season Barton was shipped to AAA as a 21 year old. For the first time in his career Barton has faced quite a bit of adversity. He only got into 43 games and hit a modest .259/.389/.395. The walks and discipline were still there. His power was about the same it had been at other stops, he just got a few fewer singles. However in late May he hyperextended his elbow and eventually it was diagnosed as a fracture. He missed the rest of the season. He had a great April and struggled in May. It was probably just a bad hot streak for a couple weeks that weighted highly in his final line due to the limited sample size. I'm not worried about this myself. Especially when you consider that his discipline remained there. God forbid a 21 year old having an OBP of .389 in Triple A. Presuming he qualifies Barton is going to be one of the top prospects ranked in the Pacific Coast League. He's probably going to fall a bit in the overall rankings. Not because of what he did, but what others did. He's probably around 40 in the BA list. He'll be higher in the Baseball Prospectus rankings. Different tastes.

So in Barton we have a 1B/DH. He hits for a high average and draws gobs of walks. He's capable of hitting .300/.420 consistently at the major league level. However his power has not developed. It's quite a debated question. His short compact stroke and strength allow him to have 25-30 home run power, but it hasn't played. Due to this some people think it's more in the range of 15-20 homers. Either way he projects to have 40-50 doubles a season. His pitch recognition is fine. There are no holes in this part of his bat. He's a lefty who hits leftys well. He's always hit them as well as righties in the minors. He's not a pull hitter. Some people feel that his lack of power production comes from him preffering to hit the ball to the opposite field - something he's great at. Perhaps as he matures, his power will develop. Either way, bottom line he's going to hit .300/.420/.480 with good consistency. If his power develops at all, he's going to be VERY good. Who is his best comparison? Probably at the minimum a Sean Casey type hitter with a lot more walks. The best comparison might just be a left-handed Edgar Martinez. Especially if his power develops.

Tennessee Smokies Baseball!

The Chicago Cubs have announced that they are no longer affiliated with the West Tenn Diamondjaxx and are now affiliated with the Tennessee Smokies. This will end a 9 years affiliation for the Cubs. Before that they were affiliated with the Orlando Rays. The Cubs will still be in the Southern League for the 28th consecutive season. In 2006 the Diamondjaxx drew less than 100,000 fans the first team to do so in the league in five years. The Smokies on the other hand drew over 250,000 and routinely rank among the attendance leaders in the Southern League. This move will allow more exposure for the Cubs prospects and it is a great move in my opinion. All of the other Cubs' affiliates will remain the same.

2006 Arizona Summer League

Rk	Mine	Baseball America
1.	Jeremy Jeffress, rhp, Brewers	Hank Conger, c, Angels
2.	Hank Conger, c, Angels	Jeremy Jeffress, rhp, Brewers
3.	Cedric Hunter, of, Padres	Cedric Hunter, of, Padres
4.	Alex Liddi, 3b, Mariners	Marcus Lemon, ss, Rangers
5.	Sharloon Schoop, ss, Giants	Brent Fisher, lhp, Royals
6.	Jake Brigham, rhp, Rangers	Matt Sweeney, 3b/1b, Angels
7.	Marcus Lemon, ss, Rangers	Sharlon Schoop, ss, Giants
8.	Jose Ceda, rhp, Cubs	Kyler Burke, of, Padres
9.	Brent Fisher, lhp, Royals	Jason Taylor, 3b, Royals
10.	Matt Sweeney, 3b/1b, Angels	Vladimir Veras, rhp, Angels
11.	Carlos Peguero, of, Mariners	Brent Brewer, ss, Brewers
12.	Gerardo Avila, 1b, Mariners	Gerardo Avila, 1b, Mariners
13.	Chris Huseby, rhp, Cubs	Luis Durango, of, Padres
14.	Rolando Pascual, rhp, Brewers	Jose Ceda, lhp, Cubs
15.	Wily Peralta, rhp, Brewers	Manuel Cabez, rhp, Giants
16.	Brent Brewer, ss, Brewers	Derrick Robinson, of, Royals
17.	Doug Salinas, rhp Mariners	Nick Van Stratten, of, Royals
18.	Kyler Burke, of, Padres	Carlos Peguero, of, Mariners
19.	Luis Durango, of, Padres	Warner Madrigal, rhp, Angels
20.	Henry Rodriguez, rhp, A's	Felix Carrasco, 3b, Padres

All in all I was happy with the results I got. In the chat, John Manuel said that Chris Huseby's projectable power arm would have ranked in the Top 10 and warranted the bonus that the Cubs gave him. He was a few innings short from qualifying. I thought that Alex Liddi was a dead lock for the lest, apparently I was misinformed. Manuel said he was definitely within the running. I don't like the omission, but that's life. I also think the Derrick Robinson and Nick Van Stratten ratings are the toolsy speed guys BA tends to overrate. That's also one of the reasons that Luis Durango ranked higher than mine did. The only guy I think I might have missed a lot on was Jake Brigham, but he had to have been close unless he lost some velocity or his stuff wasn't good. Tomorrow it is going to be the Gulf Coast League, and you can read my report on that here. I can tell you right now that I underrated guys like Gorkys Hernandez, Carlos Fernandez-Oliva and Preston Manningly. Friday should be the Appalachian League unless they redo the order or push it back until next week.

Troy Tulowitzki

Troy Tulowitzki graduated from high school in 2002 and was a standout pitcher and shortstop at Fremont HS. He went an impressive 12-1 on the mound his junior season and hit .519 as a senior. He was never a good draft prospect out of high school and wasn't one of the top 110 players in the state of California. He chose to attend Long Beach State University, who just had Bobby Crosby in their line of standout first round infielders.

LBSU plays in an extreme pitchers park where home runs are a rarity. He didn't have a great year with the bat as a freshman hitting .270/.307/.408 in 210 PAs. He hit five home runs, but only drew 9 walks. However he was noted for solid defensive play at the position. He was named second team Big West SS behind Randy Blood. He was also named to the Freshman All-American team by Collegiate Baseball.

A strong sophomore season in 2004 vaulted Tulowitzki onto draft radars. He hit .317/.410/.491 with 7 homers and improved his walk rate sigificantly. He also flashed his solid glove and was named first team All-Big West and honorable mention nationally. His status vaulted as he took the starting SS job away from Tyler Greene in the summer for Team USA. He led the team in homers hitting .299/.369/.519 with four home runs in 20 starts.

The accolades started to pile up the month before his junior season. He was named to the preseason first Team Alamerican by NCBWA, 2nd team by Baseball America (behind Greene) and second team by Collegiate Baseball. He had a huge season hitting .349/.431/.599 for LBSU, quite impressive for the park. Going into the draft he had the best defensive arm and glove for a college shortstop. He was also the third best athlete and one of the premier five tool talents. He was named the number four prospect in the draft class and number one from California. He was a physical player who played better defense than Crosby, but hit for similar power and sprays his power better. He has a good arm, quick feet and was as advanced as a shortstop can get. All of his tools graded out above average. He projected as a good defensive SS who could hit 25-30 home runs a year. His makeup and work ethic were also plauded.

The Colorado Rockies picked him up with the 7th pick in the draft. He signed quickly and the Rockies spent no time sending him outright to High A Modesto. He got into 22 games for the Nuts and hit an okay .266/.343/.457 with 4 homers before getting hurt. He did draw nine walks in 105 PAs, but he struck out. Still his raw tools were excellent and 22 games after a long grueling college season is too short of a sample size. He did not qualify for the California League top 20, but would have been very high in a league stucked with uber-prospects. He was named the Rockies' number two prospect as he showed good defense and above average powers. He ended up becoming the #25 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America.

The Rockies sent Tulowitzki to Double-A Tulsa of the Texas Leaue this season. He hit .291/.370/.473 in 103 games with 13 homers and 46 walks. He showed decent power and good on base skills. The only concern is his splits is that Tulsa is a home run friendly park and 10 of the 13 came there, but he had a higher flyball and linedrive percentage at home, so it wasn't all park. He simply hit better there, componently. He got a late promotion to Colorado and has struggled in limited action. He's hit .254/.347/.317 in 75 PAs with 17 strikeouts. He has drawn nine walks, so he's working the count a bit. He has played well the last few days, but sample size abroad.

All in all we have a shortstop who projects as an above average offensive performer with good power and offensive skills. Coors Field factored out, he's got the kind of bat who could hit .300/.350/.475 as a rough guess, with his big years being considerably higher. He combines that with an above average arm and range at shortstop. He's also an athletic guy who has quick feet and good hands. He's arguably one of baseball's top 10 prospects and will find himself at the top of the Rockies' system rankings and willl find himself was one of the top 3 prospects in a loaded Texas League.