Woo we all love making money! I do, you do. Anyways, given the what John McDonough has said about the payroll, I guess it is safe to assume it will be around $100,000,000 next season. So we'll use that as a starting point. So the roster:
1. $12,500,000 - Carlos Zambrano
2. $375,000 - Rich Hill
3.
4.
5. $4,000,000 - Mark Prior
6. $5,000,000 - Ryan Dempster
7. $4,000,000 - Bob Howry
8. $3,500,000 - Scott Eyre
9. $375,000 - Michael Wuertz
10. $1,100,000 - Will Ohman
11. $375,000 - David Aardsma
Catchers:
12. $4,000,000 - Michael Barrett
13.
Infielders:
14. $13,000,000 - Derrek Lee
15. $4,150,000 - Cesar Izturis
16. $375,000 - Ronny Cedeno
17. $330,000 - Ryan Theriot
18.
19.
20.
Outfielders:
21. $5,500,000 - Jacque Jones
22. $375,000 - Matt Murton
23. $375,000 - Angel Pagan
24.
25.
The Cubs have three guys who are eligible for arbitration, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano and Will Ohman. Mark Prior does not have much leverage, so I think the max for him will be $4M. I expect Carlos Zambrano to get over $10M in arbitration, but I expect an extension to go into place before it comes to that. I think $12.5M is a safe guess on what the first year will be. Will Ohman will be a second-year arbitration guy, he asked for about $750,000 last season and reached a happy medium. I expect him to get just over a million.
That all totals to roughly $60,000,000 if we take two of the bench spots and give them to rookies, which is almost a lock. One of the open rotation slots (Mark Prior's) will go to someone like Sean Marshall. One of the bench spots will also go to a rookie, most likely backup catching going to Geovany Soto. So that gives the Cubs roughly $40,000,000 to spend on:
2 Starting Pitchers
1 Centerfielder
1 Thirdbaseman
3 Bench Players
And that's not the only likely part. The Cubs will almost certainly be shelling out about $5,000,000 to Kerry Wood overall if they resign him to a incentive-laden deal. The Cubs will likely resign Aramis Ramirez to some sort of deal that will rake in Derrek Lee type money, so that's going to be about $18,000,000 between the two of them. So we have roughly $22,000,000 to spend between:
2 Starting Pitchers
1 Centerfielder
2 Infielders
I am also assuming the Cubs are going to carry 12 pitchers now. That just seems probably to me. So who is possible with that money? Jim McDoughnut is a marketing guru, so maybe he will understand the marketing potential in Japan via Daisuke Matsuzaka but I don't see it happening. I think one of the top free agents on Jim Hendry's list will be Ray Durham. He can fill our leadoff void and play second base. He's going to command around $6,000,000. The one other bench spot can be signed with a mil or less. That leaves us with just $15,000,000 to spend on two starters and a centerfielder. With Felix Pie nearly ready the Cubs can afford to go stopgapping in centerfield with a Kenny Lofton or Dave Roberts costing about $3,000,000. So now we have to go with 2 rotation spots with about $12,000,000 to spend. That's not pretty. In a dream world we could squeeze Jason Schmidt in for that, and then pick a journeyman starter. However, in our sense I think two guys I would like and could sign for that would be Ted Lilly and Gil Meche. They are not great, but are two guys with strong strikeout rates in the American League. They have their control issues, but those can be minimized in a move to the National League. Both guys could thrive.
Doing what I did with out forty-mil we'll run out the following:
1. Ray Durham, 2B
2. Kenny Lofton, CF
3. Derrek Lee, 1B
4. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
5. Michael Barrett, C
6. Jacque Jones, RF
7. Matt Murton, LF
8. Cesar Izturis, SS
1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Rich Hill
3. Ted Lilly
4. Gil Meche
5. Sean Marshall/Mark Prior/Angel Guzman
If that team is healthy outside of Mark Prior they can win 85 game or so, with Mark Prior pushing them into the 90s. It's not great, but it maxes out what we can do right now. The real sticking point was the deal trading Greg Maddux for Cesar Izturis instead of propects. Izturis is just a clone of two guys we already had, Ronny Cedeno and Neifi Perez. He's making over $4 million too! If we had that monay back we could sign Jason Schmidt and a decent veteran, now we can't. Good going Jumbo.
1. $12,500,000 - Carlos Zambrano
2. $375,000 - Rich Hill
3.
4.
5. $4,000,000 - Mark Prior
6. $5,000,000 - Ryan Dempster
7. $4,000,000 - Bob Howry
8. $3,500,000 - Scott Eyre
9. $375,000 - Michael Wuertz
10. $1,100,000 - Will Ohman
11. $375,000 - David Aardsma
Catchers:
12. $4,000,000 - Michael Barrett
13.
Infielders:
14. $13,000,000 - Derrek Lee
15. $4,150,000 - Cesar Izturis
16. $375,000 - Ronny Cedeno
17. $330,000 - Ryan Theriot
18.
19.
20.
Outfielders:
21. $5,500,000 - Jacque Jones
22. $375,000 - Matt Murton
23. $375,000 - Angel Pagan
24.
25.
The Cubs have three guys who are eligible for arbitration, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano and Will Ohman. Mark Prior does not have much leverage, so I think the max for him will be $4M. I expect Carlos Zambrano to get over $10M in arbitration, but I expect an extension to go into place before it comes to that. I think $12.5M is a safe guess on what the first year will be. Will Ohman will be a second-year arbitration guy, he asked for about $750,000 last season and reached a happy medium. I expect him to get just over a million.
That all totals to roughly $60,000,000 if we take two of the bench spots and give them to rookies, which is almost a lock. One of the open rotation slots (Mark Prior's) will go to someone like Sean Marshall. One of the bench spots will also go to a rookie, most likely backup catching going to Geovany Soto. So that gives the Cubs roughly $40,000,000 to spend on:
2 Starting Pitchers
1 Centerfielder
1 Thirdbaseman
3 Bench Players
And that's not the only likely part. The Cubs will almost certainly be shelling out about $5,000,000 to Kerry Wood overall if they resign him to a incentive-laden deal. The Cubs will likely resign Aramis Ramirez to some sort of deal that will rake in Derrek Lee type money, so that's going to be about $18,000,000 between the two of them. So we have roughly $22,000,000 to spend between:
2 Starting Pitchers
1 Centerfielder
2 Infielders
I am also assuming the Cubs are going to carry 12 pitchers now. That just seems probably to me. So who is possible with that money? Jim McDoughnut is a marketing guru, so maybe he will understand the marketing potential in Japan via Daisuke Matsuzaka but I don't see it happening. I think one of the top free agents on Jim Hendry's list will be Ray Durham. He can fill our leadoff void and play second base. He's going to command around $6,000,000. The one other bench spot can be signed with a mil or less. That leaves us with just $15,000,000 to spend on two starters and a centerfielder. With Felix Pie nearly ready the Cubs can afford to go stopgapping in centerfield with a Kenny Lofton or Dave Roberts costing about $3,000,000. So now we have to go with 2 rotation spots with about $12,000,000 to spend. That's not pretty. In a dream world we could squeeze Jason Schmidt in for that, and then pick a journeyman starter. However, in our sense I think two guys I would like and could sign for that would be Ted Lilly and Gil Meche. They are not great, but are two guys with strong strikeout rates in the American League. They have their control issues, but those can be minimized in a move to the National League. Both guys could thrive.
Doing what I did with out forty-mil we'll run out the following:
1. Ray Durham, 2B
2. Kenny Lofton, CF
3. Derrek Lee, 1B
4. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
5. Michael Barrett, C
6. Jacque Jones, RF
7. Matt Murton, LF
8. Cesar Izturis, SS
1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Rich Hill
3. Ted Lilly
4. Gil Meche
5. Sean Marshall/Mark Prior/Angel Guzman
If that team is healthy outside of Mark Prior they can win 85 game or so, with Mark Prior pushing them into the 90s. It's not great, but it maxes out what we can do right now. The real sticking point was the deal trading Greg Maddux for Cesar Izturis instead of propects. Izturis is just a clone of two guys we already had, Ronny Cedeno and Neifi Perez. He's making over $4 million too! If we had that monay back we could sign Jason Schmidt and a decent veteran, now we can't. Good going Jumbo.
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