Friday, October 20, 2006

International Options - Hitters

Recent rumors have suggested that the Cubs pulled their scouts at the end of the season in an effort to get a jump start on the offseason and scout potential newcomers. This does not just include players in the US, as they sent ace scout, Gary Hughes, to Asia. Of course he primary assignment was probably Daisuke Matsuzaka, but sources indicate that they found several other potential acquisitions. Now that the regular season is over, it's time to look at the top hitter in Japan and how they fared. With a minimum of 250 PA, here are the top 30 hitters with their positions.

.348 Kosuke Fukudome, Chunichi Dragons - RF
.340 Tyrone Woods, Chunichi Dragons - 1B
.333 Sung-Yeop Lee, Yomiuri Giants - 1B
.328 Nobuhiko Matsunaka, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks - DH
.320 Michihiro Ogasawara, Nippon Ham Fighters - 1B
.317 Alex Cabrera, Seibu Lions - 1B
.308 Tomoaki Kanemoto, Hanshin Tigers - LF
.306 Jose Fernandez, Rakuten Golden Eagles - 1B
.304 Akinori Iwamura, Yakult Swallows - 3B
.303 Kazuhiro Wada, Seibu Lions - LF
.302 Julio Zuleta, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks - 1B
.300 Yuki Yoshimura, Yokohama Baystars - CF
.300 Fernando Seguignol, Nippon Ham Fighters - DH
.297 Atsunori Inaba, Nippon Ham Fighters - RF
.296 Adam Riggs, Yakult Swallows - 1B
.295 Osamu Hamanaka, Hanshin Tigers - RF
.294 Hiroyuki Nakajima, Seibu Lions - SS
.292 Kazuki Inoue, Chunichi Dragons - LF
.291 Andy Sheets, Hanshin Tigers - 1B
.290 Tomoya Satozaki, Chiba Lotte Marines - C
.290 Benny Agbayani, Chiba Lotte Marines - LF
.289 Tomohiro Nioka, Yomiuri Giants - SS
.288 Kentaro Sekimoto, Hanshin Tigers - 3B
.286 Tomonori Maeda, Hiroshima Toyo Carp - LF
.286 Munenori Kawasaki, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks - SS
.285 Shuichi Murata, Yokohama Baystars - 3B
.284 Takashi Toritani, Hanshin Tigers - SS
.284 Norichika Aoki, Yakult Swallows - CF
.284 Kenta Kurihara, Hiroshima Toyo Carp - 3B
.283 Hiroki Kokubo, Yomiuri Giants - 3B

The multiplier to the US on average is about .925, which leave these hitters to all be above average hitters in the USA. Kosuke Fukudome's EqA translates to around .320 by this method - roughly Derek Jeter. There's a surprise for me that there are so many shortstops in the top 30, and one of them is not Marine shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who might wind up being the best of all of them, and the only reason he did not make this list was he wasn't his usual immortal self on the bases like last season. His EqA was .281 and with his career CS rate it would have been over .290 - by far the best season of his career. Speaking of Japanese shortstops, Hiroyuki Nakajima was the best in the league in 2004, but stumbled with contact in 2005 and now look he's back to being one of the top overall players in the league.

There's really only a couple of players the Cubs could acquire this season, as most of these players won't be coming stateside. The biggest one is Akinori Iwamura who hit .312/.388/.552 with 32 homers in a pretty hitter friendly ballpark. His numbers have been pretty constant near that level his time in Japan the last three seasons. His best season was 2004 where he knocked 44 homers. His EqA that year was .307 and in 2005 it was .307, so he's definitely leveled out at the level. Given the .925 rule, that would be about a .280 EqA each season - roughly what Ryan Zimmerman and Adrian Beltre did this season. Somewhere around a .280/.350/.450 hitter. Clay Davenport did translations before the WBC and got an average of about a .270 EqA and a .270/.340/.440 hitter out of him. The issue those two seasons were an extremely high strike out total in an environment that does not have a lot of those. However, he's cut down his strike out totals the last three years by about 30 each year while maintaining his power output. So I think that's going to be a pretty low translation. Most of the names rumored to crossing the pond our pitchers, and I'll look at them later. Those comparisons are probably pretty good as he's a tremendous defender who dazzled during the World Baseball Classic.

No comments: